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Laredo Petroleum: Cash Flow Bonanza Year

Mar. 03, 2021 2:51 PM ETVital Energy, Inc. (VTLE) Stock129 Comments


  • Howard County will have priority for capital expenditures.
  • West Glasscock County acreage is more profitable than the main acreage of the company.
  • There will likely be more opportunities to acquire superior acreage in the current industry environment.
  • Lease operating expenses are now comparable with dry gas operators.
  • Oil production as a percentage of total production will rise. That should lead to significant cash flow increases this fiscal year.
  • This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Oil & Gas Value Research. Get started today »

Laredo Petroleum (LPI) has long made do with some fairly gassy acreage. Management did well for shareholders for a long time with that acreage. But this latest downturn gave the company the opportunity for a profit upgrade. Management has been taking advantage of that upgrade. Now management has moved operations to the superior acreage. Shareholders should just love the results.

New Strategy

From the initial success, the company now has a new strategy that will likely be executed opportunistically.

Source: Laredo Petroleum January 2021, Corporate Presentation

The company made several acquisitions shown above. Those acquisitions have landed the company in several oilier areas that are expected to be more profitable in the long run than the company's current acreage before this series of acquisitions.

Because of that management has been moving any operations to the new acreage effective immediately. The Howard County acreage is expected to have the greatest oil percentage of total production. Therefore, drilling will commence on those leases first.

Mr. Market has not been really impressed because the current acquisitions only have a few years of drilling possibilities. But a lot can happen in this industry in those few years. In the meantime, production from the current acreage can act as an "ATM" to get production going on the new acquisitions. Even though acreage prices will firm as oil and natural gas prices continue to rally, small acreage positions often sell for considerable discounts to market prices. Therefore, small bolt-on acquisitions to the properties already acquired are a realistic proposition (at bargain prices).

Cost Progress

In the meantime, cost progress continues. Therefore, the company acreage will become more competitive in the future as technology improvements continue.

Source: Laredo Petroleum January 2021, Corporate Presentation

The acquired acreage is the Western Glasscock County and Howard County figures above. Any well

I analyze oil and gas companies like Laredo Petroleum and related companies in my service, Oil & Gas Value Research, where I look for undervalued names in the oil and gas space. I break down everything you need to know about these companies -- the balance sheet, competitive position and development prospects. This article is an example of what I do. But for Oil & Gas Value Research members, they get it first and they get analysis on some companies that is not published on the free site. Interested? Sign up here for a free two-week trial.

This article was written by

Long Player profile picture

Long Player believes oil and gas is a boom-bust, cyclical industry. It takes patience, and it certainly helps to have experience. He has been focusing on this industry for years. He is a retired CPA, and holds an MBA and MA.

He leads the investing group Oil & Gas Value Research. He looks for under-followed oil companies and out-of-favor midstream companies that offer compelling opportunities. The group includes an active chat room in which Oil & Gas investors discuss recent information and share ideas. Learn more.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long LPI. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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Comments (129)

Worst energy stock. Barely goes up with oil but tanks hard with oil.
@tradingbot2004 It feels like there's been a lack of buying in LPI rather than determined selling. Very few if any new buyers are looking at the fundamentals here. LPI is recently trading like it's a bar of gold, in the sense that it's a momentum play where fundamentals don't matter. As with gold, buyers only emerge if the price starts going up sharply. Otherwise they see no reason to buy. But what will make the price start going up sharply, when there's currently almost no buying interest?

CPE had a similar problem earlier this year. CPE an extreme sector laggard until late January, and it had people scratching their heads as to why. Was it some delayed reckoning of the share dilution via warrants from the prior autumn? The mechanics of it could have been that CPE warrant owners (who had received these as an inducement to buy CPE bonds, with a very low conversion price) were converting to common shares and dumping them onto the market in early 2021. Likewise, LPI itself could be guilty of dumping shares on the market (via their agent Wells Fargo) over the past month or so, as outlined in the ATM.

The good news (if there is any) is that CPE eventually got out of its funk and became a tremendous performer over the past 2 months, after starting out very slowly (relative to the sector) in the first 3-4 weeks of the year. LPI has now greatly underperformed for barely over 4 weeks, and if it follows the CPE pattern then it should outperform over the next 2 months. No guarantees on that, of course.
@Long Player, how do you think about the valuation of proved reserves in relation with the enterprise value?
Long Player profile picture
@ericdenblanken Proved reserves are a moving target. This one has decent cash flow and a low P/E ratio as well. I tend to not worry much about proved reserves.
@Long Player But maybe this is an important reason for the low stock price?
Long Player profile picture
@ericdenblanken Proved reserves are an estimate at current prices (as defined in the reserve report). They do not take into account many things, the primary one is risk of development. Also cost of development may not be adequately addressed as was the case with Energy XXI and CRC, for example. CRC had huge reserves that were costly to develop and so the report was not really worth much. CRC of course went under and even the second lien did not receive much.
The reserve report just really does not mean much. It is a snapshot at the current time and that is about the best that can be stated. It really takes a professional to interpret.
Forward P/E is only 1.67....as of today's amazing price. That is undervalued. Wait till the Fall when oil & gas is in full demand, this stock should be a rocket by then.
Question: Why LPI is down 1.83% while CPE is up 9.74% today?

And why CPE is significantly higher today compared to 30 days ago while LPI is significantly lower today compared to 30 days ago?
Long Player profile picture
@Daniel07 CPE once had a decent growth history and to this day has far more institutional coverage due to that past even though it is long gone. LPI on the other hand had a management that was shown the door because they did not change with the market. They followed a reserve strategy rather than a cash flow. At one point there was a whole rig dedicated to the perfect completion method and finding more reserves. All that changed with the new administration. There was also that year when production went up due to more natural gas production in the wells and that needed to change. Obviously the Howard County acreage alone will change that situation but so will the new spacing and a few other changes on the legacy acreage.
CPE has long been an institutional go to and that is unlikely to change overnight.
@Daniel07 The stock price movement does not make much sense to me. First stock goes down, because oil price went down, but later when oil price recovers stock still goes down some more. Volumes were also low today.

On the other hand we fell below 20 day SMA level on 18. so the current position seem technically quite weak. We might need to go down some more to find support for example from 100 day EMA. Maybe we will then return to a rising trend again.
At current stock price level, maybe equity offering was the right thing to do lol
@cwaddle when a company is issuing equity when it doesn't urgently need the cash, it is clear the stock price is overvalued.

LPI defied many investors during the past years and those investors do not believe in the company anymore. In the current oil environment there are probably needed 6-8 months more until investors will be convinced again to buy LPI. Laredo currently has negative equity, so anybody who uses a stock screener runs away.
@Daniel07 I seem to remember CFO Lemmerman saying on a conference call (for Q3 I think) saying that they wanted to buy more acreage because of the negative equity. That made little sense to me, because - for one thing, their "negative equity" is essentially due to a bogus write-down of assets caused by the coronavirus, and second, I didn't think LPI needed more acreage.

Buying land just to make the balance sheet look better seemed bizarre. But at the time, I figured he's just the CFO, that's how he views the world. Now it appears that maybe that's what LPI is doing. I don't know if they think that's to make the banks happy, or if it will just make LPI show up on a stock screener for some investor. From a shareholder point of view I didn't like the dilution at a relatively low level, apparently in the $30's when the stock might have soon been back to $60. And should the CFO be driving the bus here? Or was this forced by Wells Fargo? LPI was so tight-lipped about it when they announced the ATM.

I agree that it will be another 6-8 months - at least - before LPI gets out of the penalty box due to the ATM. I was thinking more like 11-12 months, i.e. all the way through the reporting of the 2021 EPS, the related conference call, and the analyst projections for 2022 and 2023. Also at that point LPI would show up on stock screeners with positive equity and positive earnings. Let's hope LPI doesn't do anything silly between now and then. I do expect an announcement of an acreage buy fairly soon, and at this point I don't think the market would see that as a negative.
@Bergerac Great comment.

Issuing new stock worries current investors. Look what happened to Viacom during the past days.

LPI is on my watch list.
What a POS stock. If it was that undervalued, at current oil prices, it should trade much higher.
LP: Zacks has consensus 2022 EPS at $20.63....does that sound right to you? IYO, why does Mr Market allow the price to remain so low, i.e., PE LESS than 2:1? Are we just smarter than everyone else? (LOL!)
Long Player profile picture
@CHAZAGE I have several like this. The industry was beaten down by unpredictability. So now its recovery time. Steady leadership and lack of opec pricing wars and covid should get the PE's back to normal
TexasInvestor1 profile picture
@Long Player What other names do you have with PE < 2?
@Long Player indeed, please give us 5-6 examples of similar undervalued companies :)
Who is selling this today? Down over 8%? Is there any explanation? Sure oil is down a bit, but so what, the sector isn't getting rocked as hard as LPI.
@Bergerac I suppose there are many, but many, people who are playing very short term. They buy today and if they make a buck in a couple of days they sell.

Not just LPI is going down today on no news. CDEV, SM, XOM, CVX are all down. I like that CPE is stronger. It looks like it has great tailwind.
@Daniel07 You are probably right that it's profit-taking after a decent run last week. But it's frustrating that the stock lagged the sector (mainly due to the ATM offering) yet today it's leading on the downside, other than CDEV which did have news yesterday of a note offering. If LPI had kept up with the sector, it would be in the $50's or $60's right now, not the $30's.
@Bergerac LPI does not have enough supporters. One reason could be that LPI's management disappointed and defied investors during the past years. I suppose there are also other reasons that I do not know.

We can see a very simple indication that LPI has fewer supporters than other similar companies.

On Seeking Alpha LPI has 8.4 K followers. However, SM has 10.36 K followers, while CPE has 12.85 K.

Even Baytex from Canada has more followers than LPI: 14.68 K.

And it was obvious during the past month that LPI has not moved much when CPE and SM skyrocketed. And when there was a market correction, LPI went deeper than other similar companies. Also, the traded volume is much lower.

In my opinion, LPI is extremely undervalued. I do not know a peer right now to be so undervalued. However, due to the fact that I do not trust its management I do not own even one share of LPI. I am watching it and I could buy some shares, but I am not yet convinced.

I currently hold CPE and I notice short sellers are starting to close their positions. I am curious how short sellers will play during the next 3 trading days as March 19th is the closest deadline for the options. I am wondering if short sellers will accelerate buying during the next 3 days as I noticed this trend during the past days. I also believe OXY is definitely a BUY here and can be hold up to $70.

Baytex Energy could be a buy as well.
LPI received a strong buy rating of 1 from Zacks.

However it is obvious that are not enough investors now to support this company... Shares are down more than 8% today...

LPI needs desperately to fire the current top management!
Long Player profile picture
@Daniel07 They already did that and this is new management
@Long Player Fire also this new management :)

And bring a new one with a focus on results for investors.

Or they should merge with another company which has better management.
@Daniel07 I agree. Pigott has only been CEO for about a year and a half, but already it seems to be "meet the new boss, same as the old boss". No concern for the shareholders. Oil and natural gas are now higher than they were when Pigott became CEO, yet the share price is down more than 30% from his first day with that title.

Most of LPI's peers are about the same or higher from when Pigott took over. Pigott even had the advantage of having fortunate hedges when the covid pandemic hit, which should have made LPI an outperformer in the sector rather than an underperformer.

The most obvious fit for a merger would be with CPE, and CPE definitely has better management than LPI. But it would be unfair to LPI shareholders to merge with CPE unless CPE did a 2/1 exchange of shares, i.e. 2 CPE shares per 1 LPI share. Even then, CPE would be getting a great deal. But with the two share prices roughly equal at this time, I don't see CPE offering a 2/1 merger deal like that to LPI.
georgefelix75 profile picture
Stock is pushing against resistance here at $42.50. If it can get thru it the next level is $49.00 then $56, $66.....then things open up pretty big. I'm tempted to sell covered calls but I think its too early.
Long Player profile picture
@georgefelix75 We should be easily able to get to the old $7 level without breathing hard.
georgefelix75 profile picture
@Long Player That would be $140? I see nothing to stop $100 leap frogging to $150.
Long Player profile picture
@georgefelix75 I don't either. But of course let's see what the market says.
This has finally started to move up at a good phase. I was getting a bit impatient since I started buying at a bad point around $38 and have been lowering my average price during the slide down.

I prefer to usually sell my position and buy it back later after the trend has started to turn, if the value keeps sliding down for too long after initiating my positions. Having this go up 11% today makes makes my position green with a nice initial margin. Let's now see how high we can go!
Long Player profile picture
@apocalyt According to the Sailingstone letter, this one is still very cheap
@Long Player The oil price plummeting yesterday was quite a bummer for the stock price, but I suppose somewhat delayed covid recovery wouldn't matter that much for LPI business results at current prices. Oil sales are mostly hedged with ceiling of $60 anyway. A further drop would be more significant when considering 2021 results. I suppose there are no significant changes to longer term oil demand outlook so shouldn't worry too much about current stock price changes. What do you think?
Long Player profile picture
@apocalyt Whenever you see a P/E as low as this one and that is about 1 to 1.5, then what is needed is steady economic leadership and a lack of surprises for awhile so that P/E expands. Oil prices will vary. So the stock will be volatile. But right now a more steady future is needed instead of was experienced in the last 4 years or so.
The 'System' is working just fine! Wells Fargo upgrades LPI to a "Buy" with target $46/sh! The ATM is paying off....Mgt let WF handle a $2MM ATM, and WF raises the Rating! .....HaHa!
Very typical. Wellsfargo upgrade signals the completion of ATM, I believe
TexasInvestor1 profile picture
@Long Player , so you think we starting "catching up" to peers next week? Watching every other oil stock sky rocket while we stay flat has been disconcerting to say the least
Long Player profile picture
@TexasInvestor1 This is why I usually make a basket. Because you never know which ones "catch up" later etc.... So I own this one, but also have several others. My actual biggest return since March was a surprise to me. GTLS ran up from $15 to $136 where I sold it. This one has tripled from its low. But if that oil price stays above $50 this year then I think the stock has a good year as they are only drilling Howard county right now.
TexasInvestor1 profile picture
@Long Player Thanks,LP. If, on a bull case, WTI reaches $70 and holds for the remainder of the year, what does this do for LPI earnings given the hedge profile?
Long Player profile picture
@TexasInvestor1 A lot depends upon the view of the market at that point. The last time we headed that high in 2018, the market was optimistic for maybe 3 months at the most and then when it crashed, it really crashed.
Rasing $75m from ATM shares may be to fix the slightly negative shareholder equity that is always viewed negatively by institutional investors. Their bank (Wells Fargo) may require that per the upcoming spring barrow base redetermionation. So LPI has to do it right away. Anyway, another 600K volume today so far, No many ATM shares left.
Long Player profile picture
@sogosohubidu That is probably not a consideration for Wells Fargo
@sogosohubidu That may be true, but if so it's crazy that LPI was forced to write down their assets when oil was so cheap last year, despite being fully hedged (once they scaled back 2020 plans a bit) at $60/bbl. And now that WTI is $66/bbl, they can't write-up the value of their assets to reflect that change? So they have to do an unwanted and highly dilutive ATM share offering in order to make the book value look better?

Nearly 800k shares have now traded today, with an hour left in the regular trading session. I HAVE to think that we are seeing the last of the $75 million in ATM sales, right now, i.e. today. If Wells Fargo made them do this, I hope that LPI will be able to change banks at some point in the near future. Wells Fargo has possibly the worst reputation of any US bank. I suppose it's tough for oil and gas companies to get capital these days, but wow what a disaster vs. what could have and should have been for the shareholders, these past couple of weeks.
@sogosohubidu I highly doubt this is the reason, most bank lines are based on interest coverage ratios and lenders understand book value in e&p can be gimmicky. They'll almost certainly use the funds to buy land, but it just comes at absurd dilution considering how depressed the equity is.
Objectively undervalued stock, esp with regional differentials in natgas closing dramatically in the past year, but easily the stupidest management in the business at the moment. Adding a 20% dilutive issuance into a low share price is just shockingly dumb.
@mjg235 Not that bad:
Their costs are very low.
Their hedging was better than average.
Current share issue was dumb, but managements doing dumb things is normal.
For extraordinary dumb check Gulfport which went to Chapter 11 for fun, in a rising gas market with no debts maturing.
@Petja Ylitalo It sounds like Gulfport's at the 99.9th percentile of stupid, and LPI is just at the 97th.

Still needs to be understood that management is retarded enough to justify some degree of discount vs peers. If I were running a fun, I'd make an activist run at them.
@Petja Ylitalo exactly. I feel LPI management is similar to GPOR management.
Has any heard that Wells Fargo is selling out it's position in LPI?
Long Player profile picture
@CHAZAGE I don't know that Wells Fargo has a position to sell. That position, if it exists would be the sum total of investment managers handling various accounts under whatever assumptions exist. So i don't know that they would act in uniform.
@CHAZAGE According the the press release of February 23, Wells Fargo was to act as an agent for Laredo to sell "up to $75 million" worth of LPI stock. Wells Fargo was to be paid a commission for this, I think it was 2% or 2.5%.

While some LPI investors seem to think that the shares would be held and only sold at prudent times, the reality seems to have been that Wells Fargo has been in the process of dumping the entire $75 million worth of shares, over a period of a couple weeks.

The high volume of selling and massive underperformance of LPI vs the sector seems to confirm that Wells Fargo has been dumping these shares, though LPI will get 98% or so of the proceeds. A similar situation happened late last November when Warburg Pincus dumped the roughly 2.5 million LPI shares that they owned into the market, which resulted in high volume but severe underperformance vs. the sector. The main difference here is that having Wells Fargo sell shares on behalf of LPI will dilute the share base (albeit in exchange for cash), while Warburg's share dump was of their own shares and merely transferred ownership from their hands to the hands of others.
@Bergerac Great point! Thank you!

The fact that LPI's management is diluting current investors at these low prices proves management has NO respect for shareholders.

They could have sold in one month for 2x the price.
From the volume today and the volume in the last few trading days, the newly issued ATM shares will probably be absorbed by the market very soon. These ATM shares have clearly capped the rising of the share price. After the ATM shares are bought by the market, LPI should rise quickly to catch up with SM. CDEV and CPE. Shareholders have every right to be upset about the issuing of these ATM shares at this early stage of oil bull market and at such a low share price. But, this shall be over soon. After all, LPI is still very under value and I expect to see $200 share price before the end of next year (2022) even with this dilution.
Pete Palmer profile picture
@sogosohubidu Unless I've missed a press release, LPI hasn't started issuing and selling new shares yet. They announced their intention to potentially issue and sell shares in the future.
@Pete Palmer I agree with Sogos. The announcement of the filing and intent was made by LPI a little over a week ago. They aren't going to do a press release before every block of shares is sold.

LPI did seem to want to give the impression that they were just readying this as a possibility for the future, but the reality seems to have been that the entire $75 million worth of stock has been in the process of being dumped every day since the announcement.

As Sogos points out, the full share dump will likely be finished soon. Shareholders don't like it, but at least it's likely to be out of the way. The next announcement will probably be that the ATM has been finished in full, and that LPI is buying some unneeded and overpriced Howard County acreage at the top of the market. As well as raising the salaries of the executives, after all they took the shares from $6.60 to $33+ so they'll pat themselves on the back for that, ignoring the fact that the share price is still more than 95% below its all-time highs.
Long Player profile picture
@Pete Palmer That was my interpretation as well. I think it was just the announcement that did it.
Long Player,
See the article that came out 2 days ago by Elephant Analytics, that points out that Laredo's hedges for 2021 are currently deeply in the red to the tune of $145 Million at current strip prices. This is because they are locked in at $50 WTI, while currently the price is over $65. He estimates as a result that FCF for 2021 will be around $48 Million- not exactly a Cashflow Bonanza.
@Nathan5 lpi is not the only player. Cpe locked in at 40s.
Pete Palmer profile picture
@Nathan5 LPI could pay a fee to get out of those hedges if their contract allows.
Long Player profile picture
@Nathan5 Companies can change that by changing their drilling practice. If the perception industry wide (big if) changes so that companies believe higher prices are here to stay, then they simply outdrill the hedges and the production not covered by the hedges will get the market pricing. Here it is real easy to do by drilling in Howard County. I personally am not convinced that prices are going to stay where they are as there is a lot of production held off the market. That is a huge problem.
This article does NOT have any FCF and net income forecast for this year and next year.

It doesn't mention the hedges which are not very favorable.

I do not own even one share of LPI. Because LPI's management does not respect shareholders. I value Vicky from OXY more than LPI's management. Can you imagine that?

So, until LPI is only focusing on FCF, debt reduction, profitability, I do not plan to buy. I am not interested in buying more land and drilling more.

So, what is your price target for LPI for the next 12 and 24 months?

What FCF do you forecast for 2021 and 2022?

What EPS do you forecast for 2021 and 2022?

Thank you!
Long Player profile picture
@Daniel07 First of all I regard FCF as one of the most useless figures out there. Especially in a vacuum. The company is priced at less than 3 times operating cash flow and it bought land were the wells drilled are far more profitable than the land it already has. Not only that, but that land was purchased at far lower prices than was available about a year or so ago.
So they got into more profitable leases at lower costs than many of their competitors and you are angry about that.
Earnings per share depends upon many things. Which wells they drill and commodity prices are two. I don't happen to want to see a lot of hedges when prices are going up. Maybe you like to lock in losses.
They are drilling those news leases that are more profitable which means that cash flow and likely profits are going up even under some extreme conditions. You appear to not like that either.
So maybe this industry is not for you.
Long Player profile picture
@Long Player Free cash flow has an inverse relation to profitable opportunities. I don't expect to see any free cash flow when they can make 90% drilling.
@Long Player this industry is definitely for me as I have good profit from other more serious companies than LPI.

LPI already locked in very low prices in their current hedges.

As I already wrote, I am not interested in buying more land. And it seems that neither other investors. Just look at the share price of LPI.

It doesn't work with the same old story: "we have no profits and no FCF because we buy more land and we drill more". Investors are not willing to wait for 3-4 more years listening to that story.
Nice article Long Player, thanks. You have an interesting use of ATM (as in automatic teller machine, i.e. source of ready cash), rather than the ATM used by LPI last week when they announced the "at the market" share sales of "up to $75 million". The stock market absolutely hated that particular ATM, and I can't imagine LPI using the money for anything that would justify a 17-18% share dilution.

LPI stock is so cheap vs. the sector because it's got a substantial "idiot factor" built in. While LPI did get a new CEO about a year and a half ago, and a new CFO a little less than a year ago, I'm not sure how much management has improved.

As Sailing Stone pointed out in their letter to LPI management 2 years ago, the one where they indicated a likely value of $160-240/share (adjusted for the 1/20 reverse split), LPI moved early into the Midland Basin (of the Permian Basin) and picked out some excellent land. It's puzzling that LPI management seems to want to ignore that land - which would benefit from the likely boom in nat. gas, look at the performance of AR over the past year - in favor of Howard County and other oily properties.

I don't expect LPI to return to the upper $600's/share, but these guys should be back in the $50's by now, at the very least. No one seems to have confidence in LPI management, including the management themselves, who seem to be unconcerned about the share price - and who don't seem to be motivated to make it go higher.

These guys should be embarrassed that the last time oil was as high as it is now, the share price was in the $200's. They should also be embarrassed that nat gas producer AR has more than tripled since the end of 2019, while LPI is down about 40% over that same time. LPI can't have the excuse that they are an oil stock with a lot of nat gas, or a nat gas stock with a lot of oil, when they've been severely underperforming both sectors.

That said, the value is here in LPI, but the "idiot factor" runs deep in the stock market pricing. As Sddmack noted, this type of performance vs. asset quality is the type of thing that cries for management replacement. Unfortunately some big boys including Sailing Stone and Warburg Pincus have left the building, though I believe that Black Rock is still a major shareholder and might hold LPI management's feet to the fire at some point.
Long Player profile picture
@Bergerac New management has now been here that long. The Howard County properties came at a considerable discount. Now let's see what happens.
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