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Pfizer Has A Unique Portfolio Outside Of Its Vaccine

Mar. 04, 2021 11:34 AM ETPfizer Inc. (PFE) Stock74 Comments


  • Pfizer has a unique portfolio of assets outside of its vaccine which will help drive strong shareholder rewards.
  • Additionally, the company is continuing to generate incredibly strong earnings from its COVID-19 vaccine over the next several years.
  • Combining these things, we expect Pfizer to be able to generate strong shareholder returns going forward.
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Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) has seen its valuation fluctuate through 2020 as news of COVID-19 and the company's peer leading vaccine and its revenue potential have hit the airwaves. That fluctuation has clouded the company's true business value, however, as we'll see throughout this article, the company has a unique portfolio outside of its vaccine.

Pfizer FY 2020 Results

Pfizer has continued to perform incredibly well in 2020, supported by the vaccination along with the company's other operations.

Pfizer Revenue - Pfizer Investor Presentation

Pfizer saw its revenue grow 8% YoY excluding the impact of the company's consumer businesses and COVID-19 vaccine. Among the company's top performing businesses were biosimilars which grew 68% YoY operationally. Additionally, the company's Vyndamax drug saw $1.3 billion in sales (170% operational growth).

The forecast is for $1.5 billion in peak sales in several years, although forecasts indicate the potential for that to be much higher.

Pfizer COVID-19 Vaccine

Among Pfizer's most impressive accomplishments for 2020 is its COVID-19 vaccine.

Pfizer COVID-19 Forecast - Pfizer Investor Presentation

Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine represents the first vaccine authorized for use in developed markets, as a collaboration between Pfizer and BioNTech (BNTX). As of year-end 2021, 65 million doses were supplied, and, based on a 6-dose label, the forecast is for ~2 billion doses by the end of 2021. That's expected to generate ~$15 billion in revenue.

There is the potential, to maintain immunity, for this vaccine to remain annually. That could combine with a dramatic increase in demand for doses (the 2-dose vaccine could need >10 billion doses annually). Now demand for doses and manufacturing will pressure profit margins if the vaccine becomes an annual requirement, but in the short-term, it could be valuable.

Pfizer R&D

Pfizer's R&D business has also continued to perform incredibly well.

Pfizer Clinical Trial Success - Pfizer

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This article was written by

The Value Portfolio profile picture

The Value Portfolio specializes in building retirement portfolios and utilizes a fact-based research strategy to identify investments. This includes extensive readings of 10Ks, analyst commentary, market reports, and investor presentations. He invests real money in the stocks he recommends.

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Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long PFE. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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Comments (74)

dunnhaupt profile picture
Why are there old replies, dated February, under an article dated in March?
disdaniel profile picture
Trying to decide which drug maker to invest in. How do folks here compare PFE with ABBV or MRK?
@disdaniel unfavorably
disdaniel profile picture
@bradb22 Just because? or is there a particular reason for your opinion?
@disdaniel Sorry man I was just being flippant. Unfortunately, I cannot give you insight into why the market doesn't respect PFE (or MRK) for that matter. I am long in all 3 and the best I can tell you is to buy companies you believe in when the price is reasonable or less. I bought a boatload of ABBV at a yield >7.8%. And I like MRK because of its cancer franchise but there are some smaller companies nipping at their heels. I had to stop buying the dips because there have been so many of them this year I have accumulated too large of a position in my portfolio.
I believe in PFE's pipeline of drugs long-term, but maybe Mr. Market sees it differently? Will their Covid shot be the gold standard long-term and rake in 15 billion for years or will people want a single dose that may be almost as effective yet to be developed? Can their shot be improved to make it more convenient? A lot of unknowns with PFE IMO. It is my smallest investment in BIO/Pharma but I may increase it soon.
Everyone knows about ABBV and its Humira patent expiring. Also, the debt taken on due to buying Allergan may cause the dividend increases to stop or at least slow down if the cashflow from other drugs don't make up for the loss of Humira's decline in sales. ABBV stock price fell 15% the day of the Allergan announcement. Mr. Market didn't like a lot about the company until the latter half of 2020.
dunnhaupt profile picture
About a year ago the president of Pfizer appeared on TV carrying a pepper plant, and announcing that Pfizer hat at last found a remedy for the terrible knee pain caused by Osteoarthritis. Whatever happened to that? I am not only a shareholder, but also a sufferer.
@dunnhaupt Yes tanezumab looks like a very good product.
In U.S. 11 million suffer from O.A. Moderate to Severe.
80% have tried at least 3 pain meds. and remain un happy.
This will be the first product with a specific O.A. as the indication.
FDA is in discussion with PFE.
dunnhaupt profile picture
Great news. Thank you.
Can you explain what Pfizer has successfully and INTENTIONALLY developed inhouse with that $10B yearly (USELESS) spending? In fact, what they discover inhouse seems to be a mere accident rather than research success (Viagra).
In addition, the stock price has been dead for a very, very long time. Are we looking at different charts? The stock has gone NOWHERE in the past FIVE years and still around 20% below it all-time highs reached in 2000 and 2018!

Had it not been for the acquisition ( Warner–Lambert (2000), Pharmacia (2003), and Wyeth (2009), King Pharma (2010), Hospira (2015), Anacor Pharma (2016), Medivation (2016) - to name a few - who knows where it would be today!
Let's also remember the decision to spin off ZTS. IMO, very questionable.
What is interesting, and I find surprising, is that activists do not seem to care much as there has been no call (as far as I am aware) from any to pressure the management!
@javkoza The Big pharma model is to pick up basic research early ( Ph. 1 and Ph 2 ) on and bring them to market.
The No. 1 and No. 2 products in the world are no exceptions..namely Hymira and Keytruda.
rtforme profile picture
@javkoza the game is fixed as you are showing
Willow Street Investments profile picture
@rtforme that is not being "fixed" it is stupid management.
The 65 million doses is as of 1/31/21. The 15 billion in revenues for the vaccine is based upon signed contracts as of the date of the estimate. The company has and will be signing more contracts. Therefore, the 2021 vaccine revenues should be higher than the 15 billion dollar estimate.
Winnertakesall profile picture
I'm not sure who is in charge of pricing but I think they should have charged significantly more for the vaccine. That or give shareholders first crack at it.
It is amazing, the company is going to grow their top line about 40% this year, yet it is trading at p/e about 10. The massive effect of covi drugs on pfe will be at least 2-3 year process world wide, so increase to earnings from covi vaccines will be for years. The general market SPY 500 is trading at p/e 20-30, and many techs trading at p/e 100s. Some companies have market cap many billions, yet they are not making any money, so p/e big negative,

Most recent balance sheet, pfe has decreased their net debt position to just 25 billions or so. This is great news, in my opinion.

Very strong buy, in fact possible candidate for doubling or multi burgers, in price, in Peter Lynch's words, hopefully in a year or sooner.
Steve Kean profile picture
@Bigstar99 great stock to buy and hold for any contrarian. Lots of value in PFE despite all the bad press in comments on SA.
There net income is down in 2020 which is the year of the pandemic. Is it because the vaccine rollout hasnt happened yet? will the vaccine increase net income in 2021?
ckarabin profile picture
@BigTheta They only got 2 weeks of vaccine revenue in 2020
rtforme profile picture
@BigTheta to all who are wearing blinders and those who are not watch the following brighteon short video and see why their stock price is so so unimportant - if you think they are not evil then you are a FIRST CLASS FOOL
Can any one speak to the news blip I saw in the last few day that the Biden admin had struck a deal with JNJ & Merck to produce large quantities of JNJ one shot vaccine. The news I have seen on the JNJ vaccine is a bit unclear on its efficacy. I wondered what this was about and am a bit cynical about the political implications. Thanks
Hope yesterday you didn't blink and miss one of the super rare days PFE was green. Strong upward resistance in the $35 range.
taplinger profile picture
@Randol33 All else aside the stock is a dog. What company could be first to market with an endless demand for vaccine and see its shares fall?
ckarabin profile picture
@taplinger The gap between investor pessimism and good company results is what makes the stock an opportunity. You WANT to see that gap. Celebrate it!
Question. Is the 15B in Covid revs just PFE share? And that equate to .65ct of the 3.15 in eps? So stock is trading 13-14x ex Covid? If that’s the case how is that so cheap for msd grower? 2x growth rate?
@LLCapital i think the 15billion top line for 2021 is pfe's share. Since more contracts are being signed for this year , so top line contribution for 2021will possibly be much higher than 15. Great buy!!
@Bigstar99 thanks. I think the problem is the drop in earnings after Covid profits and what happens then and also what they do with the excess profits. A good problem to have , but as you know the market never likes to see earnings go down
@LLCapital Analysts have pointed out that current pricing for vaccines has been "emergency/humanitarian" pricing - something like 4x less than historical vaccine costs, so there is possibly much more vaccine profit on future doses even if number of doses declines. On the other hand, as more vaccines come to market , you'd think the cheaper vaccines would get more sales esp in countries where cost is paramount (which is actually most countries to be honest).
J-Flo profile picture
I’m just collecting the dividend and waiting for better days ahead!
All other pharmaceutical companies - especial the ones who has won an approval in vaccines - are rising, except PFE. I bought it in April 2020 at 41$ and it has only exceed that value ones in 10 months - incredible ???
@Cafe1991 I say just long it.
The stock price is ridiculously low.

A very strong PE + dividend without even the real revenue of the vaccine being reported yet. Most of the rollout was in Q1 of 21.

You have nothing to lose by keeping it long. Cause the PE is safer than S&P’s and the company has a sure revenue. In the worst case, the price will just remain at $30-$40. It won’t get worse than this.

So if you don’t need that $, just keep it and enjoy the dividend for now.
It is frustrating to see the stock not reflecting this great company. Rename it Pfesla?
Willow Street Investments profile picture
@Vlmed I have $1,800 in PFE dividends reinvesting tomorrow...the lower the price the better...more shares, more income.
I'm long PFE and I agree that the prospects appear very good. So then why does the stock price move steadily down?
@glinsight Because NO one outside of this small SA community thinks the company is any good. Plus management needs to tank the share price so they can buy back in all the shares they liquidated in Dec when the price hit $42.
05 Mar. 2021
@glinsight Markets act in irrational ways. I see this as an opportunity to buy in for the long run.
I'm holding PFE. Once mall typo, as of year end 2020, not 2021, 65 million doses were supplied.
The title is not appropriate.
I wanted to hear more details of their pipeline and their uniqueness. I will give you an example - Lorbrena NSCLC ( lung Cancer ) ALK positive. crosses the blood brain barrier and works very well with Mets. in the brain. products from Novartis and Roche do not cross the blood brain barrier.
Drug does have mood related side-effects, buy definitely saves lives.
Unless PFE Covid-19 vaccine is used as a one-shot booster it won't be able to compete against the one-shot vaccines developed by others in 2023 and beyond. And even if it will be given as a one-shot booster at $19 or so it isn't price competitive with the others available and in development. IMO PFE's shot is a blessing to humanity but will not be to long term shareholders.
Nothing against PFE - but if it were a car it would have 3 speeds: slow, slower, and reverse.
My PoV is that JNJ, ABT, AMGN (+ possibly MRK and BMY) have more horsepower and upside when looking at big pharma/healthcare.
@FFlintstone Don't forget 3 speeds, as well as low on oil running out of gas needs body/paint work and cannot pass inspection.
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