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Evofem Biosciences Launches Phexxi: Will Peak Sales Surprise?

Vision and Value profile picture
Vision and Value


  • Evofem recently launched the first new non-hormonal birth control option in decades.
  • Clinical efficacy falls short of the copper IUD, PARAGARD, but that device I believe may come with significant side effects.
  • A trend in birth control centered on the woman's quality of life (safety, tolerability, reversibility) may be a tailwind for Phexxi sales.
  • Phexxi could buck the trend of women's health products that have fallen short of commercial expectations.

Back in December 2000, the FDA approved Mirena, the hormonal IUD, and initial estimates for peak sales were supposedly only $75 million. The contraceptive was essentially viewed as a niche product. Over the course of the next two decades, IUDs have become much more popular as women taking control over their ability to become pregnant became more popular, and this method of birth control didn't require daily pills. I believe Evofem Biosciences (EVFM) could be on top of the next trend in birth control, providing women with hormone-free, not hormone affecting, on-demand birth control.

It has unfortunately become more clear that hormonal birth control methods have significant negative effects on women, their overall health, weight, mood, sex drive, and their ability to become pregnant after terminating hormonal birth control. It is also becoming increasingly known that other touted "non-hormonal birth control" options also have systemic side effects and actually do affect hormones, though indirectly.

Phexxi is a nonhormonal contraceptive gel, applied within one hour before sex, that prevents pregnancy by maintaining vaginal pH in the 3.5-4.5 range, even when pH-raising semen is introduced, which is a hostile environment for the survival and migration of sperm. I believe that peak sales estimates for this product might yet again be low (over the long run), just like Mirena's initial estimates and perception as a niche product. This product appears to truly be non-hormonal, with no systemic side effects, presenting women who are concerned with systemic side effects with a safe, convenient, and highly effective option. I also believe that, in the case that I speculate correctly about Evofem's peak sales, the stock could appreciate considerably.

Background on Phexxi

Phexxi is currently administered via a pre-filled disposable dispenser by which the user applies the formulated gel within one hour before having sex. It keeps

This article was written by

Vision and Value profile picture
Investor and small business owner, mechanical engineer

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long EVFM. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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