GreenBox POS: How Blockchain And Stablecoin Will Impact The Payment Processing Industry

Mar. 30, 2021 12:00 PM ETRyvyl Inc. (RVYL)18 Comments


  • GreenBox POS' payment processing platform has processing volumes approaching $100m a month.
  • GreenBox has developed a best-in-class stabletoken with faster settlement times and lower fees than other stablecoins such as Circle's USDC and Tether's USDT, both of which have $10B+ in circulation.
  • The company is set to acquire ChargeSavvy, a POS system for high-risk merchants that is expected to generate $15m of EBITDA annually.
  • The company should be able to generate more than $50m of EBITDA in 2021 and $95m of EBITDA in 2022. On our estimates, GreenBox trades at 5.5x 2022 EV/EBITDA.
  • GreenBox doesn't have institutional research coverage yet and is very under-owned by institutions. As GreenBox is discovered by larger institutions, the company should start to be valued in-line with comps.

GreenBox POS (GBOX) is a fast-growing payment processing company whose platform should experience a large increase in processing volume in 2021 and 2022. The company recently announced partnerships with Visa (V) and Fiserv (FISV) to onboard merchants onto the GreenBox payments platform, which should bring processing volumes to over $1B a year. GreenBox has also expressed intent to acquire ChargeSavvy, which sells POS systems that reduce the chance of chargeback fraud for high-risk merchants. Finally, GreenBox has developed a stable token technology which we believe can eventually supplant other stablecoins such as Circle’s USDC and contribute significant processing volume, revenues and EBITDA to GreenBox.

We believe GreenBox’s revenues and EBITDA should significantly surpass the guidance management has given. In their February business update call, management provided guidance of $45m of revenue and $18m of EBITDA for FY2021. Given that in January alone GreenBox did over $85m of processing volume, even the most conservative estimates assuming flat monthly processing volumes would result in ~$75m of revenue and ~$30m of EBITDA in FY2021. GreenBox’s processing volumes, however, are growing quickly so even these estimates, far above guidance, should prove conservative.

As processing volumes increase on their payment processing platform and usage of their stable tokens grow, we believe GreenBox should be able to do more than $50m of EBITDA in 2021 and more than $95m of EBITDA in 2022. On our 2022 numbers, GreenBox currently trades at an EV/EBITDA of 5.5x. For a fast-growing technology company that should have 30%+ EBITDA margins by the end of 2021, 5.5x EV/EBITDA presents a large opportunity for investors. As more investors realize this opportunity and processing volumes grow significantly, we believe the valuation should correspondingly increase. We believe, even at a valuation well below peers, GreenBox stock could be trading over $25/share on FY2021 numbers (85%+ return) and over $55 on FY2022 numbers (325%+ return).

This article was written by

We look for growth and turnaround stories. We like doing detective work to find the best long-term investments. There's a lot of opportunity in finding companies that will grow faster than expected.

Disclosure: I am/we are long GBOX.

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