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Is Palantir Stock A Portfolio Pick For The Long Haul?


  • We believe Palantir can succeed in its mission to drag government software into the modern era.
  • The stock is expensive on fundamentals but attractive on technicals.
  • We own the stock in staff personal accounts on a long-term basis.
  • Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at The Fundamentals. Learn More »

The capitol in Washington D.C., United States of America at a cold night in spring.
Photo by SL/iStock via Getty Images

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Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. is an independent, SEC-regulated investment research business led by CEO Alex King. Alex is a professional investor with 3 decades of experience. Cestrian specializes in covering growth stocks, index ETFs and index options, long-run investing, swing trading and risk management via hedging.

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Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long PLTR, NCNO.

Business relationship disclosure: See disclaimer text at the top of this article.

Cestrian Capital Research, Inc staff personal account(s) hold long position(s) in PLTR and NCNO.

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Comments (251)

If investors actually understand what PLTR can do for governments and corporations, they will realize the humongous growth potential of this company. I am following Cathie Wood and her ARK team and buying shares in PLTR. This could be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, IMHO.
I’m w Rick JENSEN...a bunch of junk. THIEL is out, S COHEN sold as did SOROS. Even CEO KARP sold. Street doesn’t like: C SUISSE, M STANLEY, WM BLAIR all have sells, SELLS! These guys aren’t all dumb....
How is a 17 year old company at point of IPO and "innovator" and "disruptor"?
RickJensen profile picture
Because now they get to use "other's money" to fund all those bonuses and even telling everyone to get used to it. Investor Funded Bonuses over profitability, that is very disruptive to the principle of capitalism.

It's a whole new paradigm, where people actually believe company propaganda, thus, they get to take all the profits as bonuses, because they are "building the company", by selling off their inflated priced stock and options.

That's an innovative idea that takes the like of Bernie Madoff to come up with.
lsmtihcom profile picture
the revenue growth rate going forward just doesnt justify the stock price in my opinion. i see a stock that ARKK funds are buying very heavily, but that is not able to move up. the valuation at $10 a share, when it went public is much more realistic.
dxu8888 profile picture
its @ 50-60 billion (w stock comp) w 1 bil in revenue

not the same as a growth stock valued at 1-2 bil

there is no upside in pltr

it cant double because then it would be the 4th most valuable software company in the world
@dxu8888 Would you classify Google as a Software company?
Regarding the significance of the $89.9 million Nuclear Safety Agency contract

"The Painful Truth About Tesla and Palantir..."

starting at 3 minutes

The no-bid contract states that only PLTR is capable of providing what is needed
RickJensen profile picture
Until you can read the contract, I wouldn't take the word of a pumper on Reddit.
So show me the link where it says "only PLTR is capable". Get back to me anytime. I have years.
@RickJensen Let me guess: you're a conspiracy fan.

I have to wonder though, since you don't like PLTR, why are you posting here? Even if you're shorting PLTR, the likelihood of changing bullish opinions on this platform is somewhere between slim and none. So what do you hope to accomplish?
RickJensen profile picture
I'm here to provide balance and point out which stocks are hyped and which have a basis as an investment.
The more hype, the more I post.
Maybe I missed reading a post here, but the latest PLTR news:
(Palantir Issues Additional Details About Industrials Capabilities to be Shown at Double Click on Wednesday, April 14, 2021)
includes a brief video describing the improvement to their software. Basically, the code now has added functionality and runs faster (always a good thing).
Haldalorian profile picture
I bought at around $10/share, when it went public. Up 118% since then, all in my Roth. I'm holding for sure, bc not only have I made my peace with the surveillance state, I'm a Tolkien nerd.I'll consider adding if it dips below $20.
Hello all,

Does anyone understand the selling flow ? Who is selling stocks :) ( volume is high)

Thank you
Doc 224899 profile picture
For purposes of clarity, it may be thought of as the anti-Deep State software company, or the Good Guy State software company, or the Patriotic State Software Company. It may also be thought of as the Personal Liberty and National Security Software Company.

Disclosure: I own PLTR as a moderate-term position in my accounts, adding shares at the current share price...too damned old to have long-term holdings.
Cestrian Capital Research profile picture
@Doc 224899 We own PLTR and are happy to do so, but how can it be both the Personal Liberty and the National Security company since those things are usually precisely opposed?!
@Cestrian Capital Research - Without National Security we have no Personal Liberty. I don't know what's going on here.
Cestrian Capital Research profile picture
@RockyCT Ah, the Hobbesian theory of the state. Now we feel at ease!
Warrior2323 profile picture
Palantir Selected by the National Nuclear Security Administration for 5-year, $89.9M Contract for SAFER Project
SAL01 profile picture
05 Apr. 2021
@Warrior2323 I saw that also, good news.
Dex4Sure profile picture
PLTR is a buy at these prices on my opinion
@Dex4Sure It was a buy at $7.25 which was insiders fair valuation. Now insiders sell all their shares to you for 3 times IPO price, 24 $. Karp will unload 60 million shares. Cohen has already sold 97 % of his shares. You are the last owner of the 1.8 billion shares...:D
Warrior2323 profile picture
@DeepInValue u can wait and see how we gain further lol - Palantir Selected by the National Nuclear Security Administration for 5-year, $89.9M Contract for SAFER Project
@Warrior2323 A small government contract that was expected in 2021 guidance. If you look at history, PLTR has lost money every year in 18 years with increasing revenue. So their business model is not profitable. Insiders selling all their shares is a sign...:D
Larry Hall profile picture
Positively lyrical. Enjoy the writing and am long PLTR. But I do wonder how it got to be so 'old' and is still where it is, fundamentally.
not well-known can be a good thing! should i call cramer? happy easter LOL phyllis

Recommend to watch this research and comments.
CGNT May be better situation and valuation. Thx. Phyllis Quirk
Cestrian Capital Research profile picture
@plquirk180 We own CGNT too, and like it. Not a well known stock.
Booban profile picture
I am very intrigued by this company and bought a few shares but every time I try to learn what differentiates this company from all the other enterprise software company I don't get an answer. They all promise the same thing. "we get all this data and with (fake) AI, run your company for you".
Love your article! Will hold at least 5 years! Thanks a big time!
Far Horizon profile picture
I lucked into Palantir at $9 - mainly because I wanted to take a new position in AI, and am using their Foundry on a daily basis, as a commercial user. Their ability to access, formulate and present data from multiple sources in a coherent user friendly fashion is impressive. On top of this their consultants are great at seeking to understand the business challenges, and match data insights to potential solutions.
Within a few weeks, the stock was at $27, and I started to sell call options 2-3 months out for an average $5 in premiums. Lucked out again as all these (so far) have expired.
Now we have some consolidation, I have switched to selling puts - strikes between 22 and 15. I am perfectly happy to have these assigned, as I share the author’s view that the company has a long runway. I have no idea how to properly value this company - but they are a great company, with great connections, in a great industry. I think that their opportunities lie in any data rich but poorly structured financially viable organisation -> there’s no shortage of those in mind! I am not sure that the growth track record can be easily extrapolated - the shift from a handful of clients to an endemic standard could in my mind go either way.
Meanwhile - this is one to believe in for the long term, but not to simply buy/hold at any price...
Cestrian Capital Research profile picture
@Far Horizon Can you share anything about uses cases for the software?
Far Horizon profile picture
@Cestrian Capital Research sure thing. I work in financial services and we have a bunch of systems which have been built up over a number of years, but have no common database, until the end to end business process is finalised. We use Foundry to gather data from the discrete systems, pool them and aggregate into a single report engine. We can also add in non connected data (ie informal projections of market trends from our folks in the field) and run ad hoc reports run realtime by the end user. It’s pretty cool! On top of that our Palantir reps talk to folks in the business to try to identify value adds from other data sources. You know you are working with an embedded partner when your HR guy calls up and says “Guess what, I was talking to this guy from PLTR and he had this great idea about how we can benchmark our business analysts performance and decision making vs the market using external data sources.” I am not saying that nobody else can do this technically, (for sure I don’t know - I have never seen anything this powerful - including IBM Watson) but to be able to add in the consultative sales culture makes this pretty special. I am just a user, but a very satisfied one which made me invest before the big run up.
@Far Horizon Nice to hear from a real user - thanks for that. Please expand on your experiences with Foundry, if possible. Also, I am curious to know if in your application setting whether Foundry is riding on top of other database systems, like SAP, dBase II, Oracle, etc.?
HyperbolicSTONK profile picture
Looks like PLTR just inked a 1 year 7MM contract with the Department of Energy. Potential for 5 year extension for 89MM in total contract value. Here's the source: www.fpds.gov/...

Do your own DD, but thoughts on the potential impact?
@HyperbolicSTONK The contract is already included in the lower 2021 guidance. No impact.
HyperbolicSTONK profile picture
@DeepInValue the 7MM? However I would assume the potential 89MM and the official announcement would have some kind of impact. These FED contracts usually get extended as they take so long to get in place. I get the guidance around financials, but a deal isn't done until the paper is inked, which happened on March 31st.
@HyperbolicSTONK They already knew the inking when they made the guidance for 2021 at Q4. But as we have seen the company can't make a profit even though the revenue has increased to 1 billion $ in 2020. The loss was insane -1.1B dollars.
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