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Silver Is A Metal. Sometimes Is Hot. Other Times Is Not. Timing Is Crucial

Apr. 01, 2021 4:28 PM ETSLV, PSLV, AGQ, USLVF, SIVR, SLVO, ZSL, DSLVF, DBS, USV, XME, PSLV:CA12 Comments
George Dagnino profile picture
George Dagnino


  • Silver could be a hot precious metal.
  • But silver is also a commodity.
  • The business cycle will help you decide when to buy it.

Silver bars or ingots background. Precious metal.
Photo by Bet_Noire/iStock via Getty Images

Silver is hot and some traders and commentators do not know how to describe its recent sharp appreciation.

A review of recent history may be helpful. The above chart shows silver peaked in 2011 - like

This article was written by

George Dagnino profile picture
George Dagnino. Economist -- Investment strategist -- Portfolio manager – Author - Editor of THE PETERDAG PORTFOLIO STRATEGY AND MANAGEMENT on www.peterdag.com. Complimentary subscription is available.Nationally recognized speaker on business cycles George Dagnino, Ph.D. is the former Chief Economist and Risk Manager for a major corporation where he managed $4 billion of interest rates and currency hedge portfolios. The Economist Intelligence Unit (London) wrote an article about his unique and successful approach to managing risk (interest rates and currencies) using derivatives. Dr. Dagnino is 1989 market timer of the year (Source: Timer Digest) He is also the author of three books: *** "PROFITING IN BULL OR BEAR MARKETS," published by McGraw-Hill, available in Asia in several editions from McGraw-Hill Education. *** EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs *** INVESTING WISELY, IT EASIER THAN YOU THINK He taught MBA courses business and portfolio management. He has a Ph.D. from Case Western Reserve, Cleveland, Ohio. He is also an internationally recognized speaker and lecturer to many AAII investment groups, hedge funds, Europe, and China.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long SPY. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Comments (12)

Considering the factors mentioned, silver is never an outright buy, as either XME or gold or another investment will do better. Yet, that is why silver is trading at just half of previous peaks. It looks like a commodity value investment which few consider as a strategy. So it might remain cheap until an actual shortage develops.
@dougkitchen , They are using a lot of silver and mining less of it. When is it going to kick up?
Could someone WAKE me up when silver can hold $30..00 an oz. --------until than I will appreciate articles like this on Seeking Alpha BUT will not get all worked up!!
@kevinconnolly , Go back to sleep. I will wake you up when Silver holds above $30.
Does anyone understand why SLV jump yesterday 1.93% and the uslvf down 13%?
@AlecD , Silver jumped because the dollar and long term interest rates went down.
@kimbillro i do not ask why silver jump but why the 3x silver went down 13%. By logic it should have jump also but didnt. That is my question
@AlecD , That is easy to answer. You have managers in the ETF just like us...who are trying to make 3X what silver gains on a daily basis. To do this they must undertake big leverage in the derivatives market with options like calls, puts, also swaps, the carry trade, and in the silver futures market. They are also doing this with computer programs and algorithms that can all backfire due to time expirations and 3rd party risk. They may even leverage out 10X or more. The fund can even blow up and go to zero. Read the fine print. The fund guarantees nothing.
Thanks for the charts.
If you are looking to vnuysilve coinc or mi ers7:n
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