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The Gold/Silver Bull Market Is Not Over

Apr. 01, 2021 5:21 PM ET49 Comments


  • This article will explore the drivers that will push gold/silver prices higher.
  • This is the third gold/silver bull market since 1970 and will likely be the most lucrative.
  • Technically, both gold and silver are setup to make a big run once they reach $2,000 and $30 respectively.

Gold and silver bars
Photo by Inok/iStock via Getty Images

Let's start with the facts. Gold entered a bull market in July 2019 when it finally exited its 7-year basing channel at $1,370. Here is the weekly gold chart and the channel from 2010 to 2021. Notice

This article was written by

Don Durrett profile picture

Owner of www.goldstockdata.com. Author of How to Invest in Gold & Silver: A Complete Guide With a Focus on Mining Stocks (available on Amazon). Expert on gold and silver mining stocks. A frequent guest on investment podcasts, with a large following on Twitter (currently 32K followers). Plus, my own Youtube channel. 

Website: https://www.goldstockdata.com.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/DonDurrett

Youtube: https://t.co/TKA05E3Gsr?amp=1

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Comments (49)

Just want to say that I am now all in with 100% of my pm miners earmarked money. Have been in with part of those funds since late last Fall, obviously early But, that's why I kept out a healthy amount because you don't know what you don't know. And even now, I'm not sure the bottom has been struck or that we are even close. But, I suspect that we are close, at least from a timing perspective. Regardless, I'm holding on now because if this thing takes off.....well, it's good to have a seat on the train.
@denoverenes7, welcome aboard the train - we had saved a seat for you.
Hi Don, like to hear your take on josemaria resources. With the political instability at Argentina and troubled with high taxation rate. This seem like a very undervalued stock price given for a lundin run company and is their major shareholding a big positive?
Don Durrett profile picture
@bunnynoears Indeed, if you like copper, then it is an undervalued project.
@Don Durrett
Don, do you cover platinum miners, in addition to silver and gold miners? I believe platinum will do well this decade. If you do, is there a favorite?
Don Durrett profile picture
@denoverenes7 No, only gold/silver miners.
April 15th Your timing is good Don. Gold and silver downturn negated on charts today. Technical breakout means new upleg has begun after 8 months of consolidation. The more consolidation, the more powerful the new uptrend !
Haggai 2:8 The silver is mine, the gold is mine, saith the Lord.
Real money is all God's anyway....but while I'm here on earth I'll be happy to be the custodian of it.
I wonder where paper money & digital currencies will be in 1000 years?
The party hasn't even gotten started yet.
Big jobs number today....rates could rip higher...markets would stumble and gold would get crushed.
Chancer profile picture
@Don Durrett:

Don, this is one of your best articles, if not the best.

I have been accumulating junior gold stocks since 2016. Last Summer they were up 106%. Now, only up 61%. Even at current gold prices, I can still add "carefully" and juniors can develop. Long term, I believe gold and silver will go up.

One major caution is that we cannot predict how extreme the current political environment can go. For example, if they do not care about total destruction of a capitalist economy which provides a justification for 100% socialism, it may take unpredictable turns.
Since August, gold has traded inversely to inflation expectations. That isn’t all that typical historically. Possibly, they will now subside validating gold’s fall. On the other hand, if inflation expectations continue to rise, gold could quickly regain lost ground. With another $trillion heading into checking accounts over the next few months it seems risky to not have a full pm position hedged if necessary.
The honest answer is we do not know what is the future of the stock market, inflation, FX.

However, we can say we are in a time of high Risk.

As such I take a diversified (barbell?) approach: Retain my higher Quality Tech (and other) stocks, but for 2 years I have built up nearly 10% in Gold (physical and ETF); and avoided Fixed Interest.

On that basis I should survive until we know what is to be done about the grossly excessive, and unproductive, Debt.
appreciate this author's thoughts and sharing. related to his premise is the notion of 'full faith and credit' in the reserve currency. that should send a chill down every single person's back and its not comforting. i trade my time and anxiety for fiat denoted in USD. i've been wondering why for some time now. many young people don't even try to anymore and i doubt they've thought it through, but i suspect its partly due to loss of 'faith and credit' of fiat. in that sense they may be acting rationally without even realizing it. of course, having someone to pay your bills and allow you to 'fail safe' helps, but thats a different discussion.

for some of us, the emperor has had no clothes for quite awhile. when the retail crowd catches up, prepare for vix as they say
Peter Rose profile picture
As a suscriber to the "Goldstockdata.com", I'm a patient believer waiting for next gold price breakout. Nice work, Mr. Durrett.
OffSiteLocation profile picture
I kind of wonder if the trigger to ignite the fear and a quick rise in the price of gold is the statistical inflation that will finally start to show yty beginning with the report April 13th, may 12th etc.

It may be temporary but I suspect it might still scare people.
arok79 profile picture
@OffSiteLocation very easy to see the ramp in inflation down here at our level. everyday people are definitely experiencing the inflation. govt data is highly misleading so i put zero stock in that. in a PM bull cycle you will have several corrections/dips/and at times sideways movement. but the spikes will come. there is zero reason to believe PMs don't crush it much higher from these levels, in the current helicopter money economy. patience helps when invested in this sector. it will pay off in spades!!!
@arok79 @0ffSiteLocation, real inflation is alive and well: 9%
(Shadow Statistics, Chapwood Index). Eventually, Mr. Market will
figure this out. The implications for gold & silver are obvious.

Locked & loaded with NEM, AEM, PAAS, GDXJ, and others.
arok79 profile picture
@Miners to the Moon Can't disagree with you on any of those positions you have. Well done!
Don, what if a sitting president was removed from office because of mental frailty leaving a pretty unpopular VP as POTUS, who as well seems to struggle with a reasonable thought process. How might that effect the markets and the vast amount of US currency residing outside this country, which may suddenly rush home in exchange for anything of value. Think of France demanding gold prior to the end of the gold standard (PM's, equities, land..). Hyperinflation?! Reset before then?? Asking for a friend. I was slightly behind you in school fellow boomer. Started buying CC dollars in 82'. Really would like vindication on this run!! ;-)
marissamae profile picture
I keep hearing MMT all the time and how it will cause inflation. I agree MMT would cause inflation but the USA is not doing MMT. It's actually illegal for the Fed or Treasury to implement MMT. Until the Fed charter is changed we will not have MMT. Japan has been doing QE (MMT?) since the early 90s. They have no inflation and they are fighting deflation. If the USA does the same thing why would it be different? I thought QE after GFC would create high inflation, but it did not. Why would it be different this time? In the end what do I know?
Don Durrett profile picture
@marissamae The term MMT did not exist in 1990 when Japan's central bank began expanding its balance sheet and money supply. IMO, the term refers to the injection of liquidity via money printing to avert economic contraction. Note that there are an array of different opinions of what it means.

I disagree with you that the US has not been using MMT. The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and the expansion of the Federal Government debt are clear signs of MMT in action. MMT is basically the policy that debt is not bad, and in fact it is good.

Since 1990, no one in Japan has mentions reducing the debt levels of the government. The same in the US after 9/11 in 2001. That is MMT.
Chancer profile picture
@Don Durrett:

Don, Yellen has expressed support for MMT by saying good to have Federal spending when rates and inflation are low. But, when inflation and rates increase, they may have to "pay the piper." That means huge tax increases (painful) on everyone; or debasing the currency by money printing.

On the other hand, they can just increase the debt until the economy collapses. Nobody knows when that may occur. What we do know is that increasing debt when rates are higher means more spending on interest and less on benefits; therefore, debt must accelerate to continue benefits when interest payments are higher. Proponents of MMT have no clear answers.
marissamae profile picture
@Don Durrett Don't take it the wrong way. I am onboard your ship. However, where we are going I see a lot longer voyage.
Deeply Concerned profile picture
Excellent, excellent article. Many thanks.

If precious metals are in a correction, it seems like gold always bottoms first -- and then silver follows anywhere from a couple months to a year later. Could you discuss a little?
Don Durrett profile picture
@Deeply Concerned I agree with you that gold leads. My eyes are on gold and not silver. Did I forget to discuss that in the article? My mistake. That's an important distinction.

Last time, gold was 1 year ahead. This time they might break out at nearly the same time because silver has nearly caught up (using the GSR as a standard).
@Don Durrett, in 2020, silver was up 47% to gold’s 25%. Silver’s leading in 2021. At ~ 69, G/S ratio favors silver. Been adding SILJ, SLVP, PAAS & WPM this year.
Skychris profile picture
Very interesting article. Time will say if gold/silver prices are actually bottoming or go lower.
arok79 profile picture
PM bull not over by a longshot. There is much much more upside to come.
Don Durrett profile picture
@arok79 I agree and the reason for the article.
Well done as always. Will royalty companies be included in your list of 15 stocks?
Don Durrett profile picture
@gca1 Nope! I don't own any royalty stocks. The margins are fantastic, but the model makes me queazy for a variety of reasons. Watch my recent Pacific Palisades podcast interview for more information.

@Don Durrett Do you own any jr. Miners. I like Alexco (AXU) and Metallic Minerals (MMG) are you familiar with these in the yukon? Thoughts and thanks for the article.
@Don Durrett appreciate ur thoughts on royalties and streamers; long time holder of OR and FNV. just old out OR, still hold some FNV although not as much. royalties are the most beautiful way to make money - for some. if you have to ask who, u aren't in the game. too easy to game the bag, er, stockholders.
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