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The Biden Jobs Plan: Details And Analysis For Investors


  • This is a giant bill, and only 39% of it is for infrastructure. Another 29% is industrial policy, the rest housing, healthcare and labor policy.
  • I provide a detailed breakdown of the bill and the macro context behind it.
  • Opportunities abound. I will follow up in the coming week with discussions of individual companies that look to profit from the bill.
Construction works
Photo by Vesnaandjic/E+ via Getty Images

This Is A Very Big Bill

You knew this already, I am sure, but the fact sheet released by the White House for the American Jobs Plan hammers home the enormity of it, aside from the $2.1 trillion price tag over 8 years. I’ll cut

This article was written by

Trading Places Research is a macroeconomics specialist with decades of experience identifying geopolitical factors that lead to market trends. With a focus on technology, he focuses on where the sector is headed as opposed to where investments are currently.

Trading Places is the leader of the investing group Learn more .

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long PHO, MTZ. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Comments (61)

Total and complete clown. Worst in history.
jack kreg profile picture
Chinese workers are looking to rake in Billions if not more from solar panel orders, where they hold 80% market share, Buy Bank of China, with Bidens ship jobs to China tax hikes, setting US corp taxes, Fed+St to over 30% with China tax under 25%. But what to expect from a man whose family took Millions from Bank of China, aka Hunter and Brother Jim!
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009....Groundhog Day....
Mr. Author: Do you have a breakdown of who are paying that "lower effective tax rate" that you imply all corporations are paying? I can assure you that most small and medium size businesses are paying the FULL tax rate. But please look this up and get back to me.
Also, do you know what size businesses employ the most people nationwide? Do you know what will happen to many of those jobs when the REAL tax rate is raised? Do you think it's good to destroy small business in this country?
Trading Places Research profile picture
@JRS5 Do you understand how averages work?

The current system steals from small businesses and gives it to large one. Good luck to you.
@Trading Places Research "The current system steals from small businesses and gives it to large one." If you mean that in the current system, small business pays the full tax rate while the large businesses generally do not, then I agree. And small business is the largest producers of jobs in the US. So back to my original question, what do you think is going to happen to the jobless rate when the tax rate is increased? This is a job killing bill - no way around it. Big corporations are in bed with big government (they are essentially one in the same now) and the tax portion of this bill is certainly being driven by them. Not good for the working class though. In fact this entire bill is probably the largest involuntary transfer of wealth in US history. Good luck to you too.
@JRS5 In answer to your question, "What do you think is going to happen to the jobless rate when the tax rate is increased?" the answer is, not much. "The National Association of Business Economics released a survey earlier this year finding the overwhelming majority of US businesses - or 84% - didn't speed up their hiring or invest more as a result of the Republican tax cuts." Business Insider 12-22-19. markets.businessinsider.com/...
terryongarland profile picture
There is so much ...stuff in this bill..we can only guess what it all means. Have many questions..but a few stand out.
Zoning..a play to allow the building of high rise living in urban single family home neighborhoods..even in LA this was rejected by the voters recently.
Building of infrastructure..require skilled trades, already in short supply..where is the skilled labor coming from ..our open border ?
Too many words come to mind in this monstrous bill..that is seemingly designed by some party apparatchiks..
Trading Places Research profile picture

1. The zoning thing. This is impossible for the Feds to do anything about. That’s why the program is designed to focus on existing structures built before current zoning, and incentives to get localities to upzone. But NIMBYs gonna NIMBY. They are my neighbors, so I have first hand experience.

2. See comment below on labor seekingalpha.com/...

3. This was actually designed by some very smart economists. There is much in there I don’t like, mostly the industrial policy. That comes from Biden, directly. He thinks he can return us to an economy with lots of middle-class manufacturing jobs. I disagree. My take is that if we want to raise the low end of wages, we should do so in services. This is a larger sector, much less off-shorable, and the wages are lower than manufacturing. Manufacturing wages did not become relatively high by some magic. It was unions who did that. But they also sowed the seeds of their own demise by doing so. Anyway, manufactured goods become less important every year, pandemic aside.
These have huge carbon footprints;
Concrete. There will be so much of it that when they add it all up, the numbers will sound impossible. You can really pick any company selling concrete that is domiciled in the US.

Steel. There will be lots of steel, again, domiciled in the US. This will go through the entire chain from mines, to finished metals and factory equipment.

And after eight years only 20% of school buses will be electric, that not much, I don’t think this is a great BILL for the Atmosphere, just re enforces CARS for the NEXT eighty years.
The rest of the World will block your petroleum use, if not because it’s running out, but because it’s adding carbon to the Biosphere, just burning such a remarkable and useful resource, won’t do !
I don't know how a billion dollar corporation paying 25-29% in taxes makes it a "BIG LOSER".
Pretty sure losers don't need to pay any taxes, see Donald Trump's tax returns for proof of what "BIG LOSERS" typically pay.
Good article. I agree and have heavily positioned myself in three areas outlined that are already paying off big-time even before President Harris told Vice President Biden to push the infrastructure bill: copper mining, electric car tech firms and EPC’s. In six months, I am up a total of 29% on my entire portfolio with just 40% of my total assets deployed in these three sectors. (The remaining assets are in safer blue chips, munies and other instruments.) My biggest winner is FCX. I think there is lots more upside in these sectors.
Let’s just keep printing money. It worked for Rome.
AnonymousAlpha profile picture
US companies pay Ireland taxes instead of to US, because all Ireland did was like two decades ago cut their corp tax rate, and they just rake in billions of $ from US companies each year. No president, congress, or senate did anything till Pres.Trump, then companies were looking to comeback to US and pay here. Now the new admin is going to hike corp taxes, aren't we going to be in the same situation as before. No politics here.
jack kreg profile picture
@AnonymousAlpha Yep, bye bye US corps to Ireland and lower taxation for stock holders, lower jobs for US working class, lower standard of living for US working class, But the Biden vigilanties are popping the Champange, they are getting pay back for the hatred of American success. Time for change from Biden destructive ways.
One good bit of new Sen Joe Manchin now OPPOSING Bidens spending bribe of $2Trillion. Maybe Rep and JM will come up with Infra Plan that is America First, instead of the Biden/China first plan.
Amouna profile picture
If this administration had half a brain running it, they could just look back at the American Jobs Act of 2011 under Obama and realize that ill-structured, badly thought out Federal Government stimulus is nothing but pork to a select few. It doesn't nearly benefit the economy as much as it costs the regular taxpayer but, of course, politicians will never admit to that.
@Amouna "If."
LostOkie51 profile picture
@Amouna If frogs had wings...
It'll be a hell of a lot better than giving tax cuts to corporations and billionaires.
The country needed to spend $4T in infrastructure to repair roads, bridges, dams, invest in EV charging stations, invest in solar and wind, etc.
This will be a start - after 4 years of a Republican administration only interested in authoritarian gaslighting and pinning medals on their own chests.
Trading Places Research profile picture
Interesting discussion below on labor, so I just wanted to give a little color there from $MTZ, whom I follow closely and have a lot of overlap with the bill.

There is no pool of skilled labor out there looking for work. A lot of this is highly specialized stuff. In some of it, the main skill is Not Dying At Work. MTZ has been on a hiring binge in Communications for the 5G buildout, but also in their smaller Renewables unit which has been growing like a weed. These are expensive hires, because they have to invest a lot in months of training before they can send people out to a site, and trust that they will not die.

Anyway the point is:
-Ramp up costs are VERY expensive here
-But it is possible to do it, because this is high-paid skilled labor to begin with
Longlonebull profile picture
Awesome well thought through. In my opinion there is a bottleneck that has not been addressed and that is people, employees, dhighly skilled engineers, there is a shortage. This cannot be addressed until 2023. Your thought
The bill is dead on arrival. Remember we couldn't secure our border and two trillion just isn't enough for hypocrites/ democrats.
@Oldwizkid Manchin said he wants 25% instead of 29% corporate tax rate.
It's called negotiation and compromise.
Don't worry cupcake, the tax rate could be 45% and Amazon will somehow still pay $0 in taxes because MERICA and FREEDOM.
The bill is dead on arrival. Remember we couldn't secure our border and two trillion just isn't enough for hypocrites/ democrats.
Congress needs to debate this bill. OMB needs to vet this plan. Industry needs to advise Government on detailed parts.

SA: listen to Bankers' evaluations carefully. This is the start of a long and winding road up Pikes Peak like turns. The outcome will be significantly modified. After all is said and done, much more is said than done.

From my POV, I want to hear from the Program Managers & Project Managers ASAP.
I think it is worth a shot. Looks like this is aimed and at the lower and middle classes.
@G. Blair Bauer your kids will pay the bill. Better be sure it is worth it
@blorber ,I have been paying the bill since Reagan and the Republicans started all this deficit spending in the 1980's. It just keeps being passed on.
@G. Blair Bauer It does seem to be passed on but it's actually like the guy who jumped from the twentieth floor of the skyscraper. When he passed the ninth floor on the way down someone asked him how things were going and he yelled "it's great! best time I've ever had"

Not sure what floor we're passing though.
The biggest problem I see in all this is labor. There is an existing shortage of skilled labor to do the work now. And I read where it might be just union labor which is completely ridiculous. Lots of states out there with very few unions. And if you waive college debt and make it free, most young people won't want to become a welder/construction either. There quite simply won't be enough labor.
Trading Places Research profile picture
@gdinero Yes. That’s why employment and training services. But also remember, this is over 8 years
@gdinero It’s a chicken and egg problem. For decades skilled labor wages were pushed down by outsourcing and illegal immigration so not many people want to go into those fields.
Trading Places Research profile picture
@Phiota Those wages are actually relatively high.
Greg_Maryland profile picture
Very nice note.
PipelineDancer profile picture
Thanks for leaving the politics out of it and just tearing into the details and starting to think of winners and losers. I found it to be a great introduction.
Trading Places Research profile picture
@PipelineDancer I was going to finish up with a plea to leave politics out of the comments, but then I realized that was trying to hold back the tide with a sponge. 🤷‍♂️
@Trading Places Research I think there is at least one other SA author who insists on no politics and deletes comments that violate that edict. If possible I endorse that course of action. I don't view it as censorship, as we are here with the stated purpose to talk investments, to edit out those who prefer to respond as if this were a call in show with Tucker Carlson. They are insistently rude, annoying and disrespectful of our time and focus. I hope those who run SA take notice that these political comments taking up the comment sections of so many authors are detrimental to the SA experience.
Trading Places Research profile picture
@100centsofadollar That may be a Marketplace author who have more control. I can’t delete, but I am reporting all the racist stuff, and muting anyone who is here to talk shit.

FWIW, SA leadership wants no part of politics
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