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April Looks Promising, But What About The Rest Of 2021?

Louis Navellier profile picture
Louis Navellier


  • Q1 2021 closed with the Dow leading the major market indexes, up 7.76%, vs. +5.77% for the S&P 500 and a tepid +2.78% for the Nasdaq Composite.
  • Five regional Federal Reserve Banks reported super-strong readings for their five regional economic indexes. ISM manufacturing PMI index of factory activity came in at 64.7 in March, a 37-year high.
  • Eurozone factory activity has picked up to reach its fastest growth rate in at least two decades, according to IHS Markit, whose PMI for Europe has risen to 62 in March, up from 57 in February.

By Gary Alexander

The first quarter of 2021 closed with the Dow leading the major market indexes, for a change, up 7.76%, vs. +5.77% for the S&P 500 and a tepid +2.78% for the Nasdaq Composite. In fact, the Dow beat Nasdaq by the widest margin in any quarter in the last 15 years - since 2006. That's quite a shift from 2020.

Now, we look forward to a hot first-quarter earnings reporting season and favorable April seasonality.

As the researchers at Bespoke Investment Group (BIG) have shown, April is the best market month (by far) over the last 50 years, #2 over the last 20 years, and #3 over the last century (see their table, below).

Average Monthly Percent Change DJIA

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

Over the last 50 years, the Dow has averaged a gain of 2.24% in April, with November at #2, far behind with 1.63% average gains. Since 2001, November is tops (+2.61%), with April trailing slightly (+2.51%), but April has risen in 17 of 20 years (85% of the time), while November is up only 15 of 20 times (75%).

Average Monthly Percent Change DJIA_1

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

Since 1983, April's gains have been steady (blue line, below), but for the last 10 years (green line), there has been an early dip first, then a mid-month plateau, with most gains coming in the last 8-10 days of April. In the last 10 years, Bespoke says, April has risen nine of 10 times, with average gains of +2.34%.

S&P 500 April Intra Month Performance 1983-2020

Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Please read important disclosures at the end of this commentary.

Uncle Sugar's Monetary Stimulus Machine is Just Getting Warmed Up


This article was written by

Louis Navellier profile picture
Navellier & Associates was founded by Louis Navellier in 1987 and since then has guided thousands of investors by applying our disciplined, quantitative investment process to a broad range of equity products. Every day, investors hire Navellier to manage their assets in a private account, mutual fund, or defensive portfolio. For over 25 years, we’ve been zeroing in on opportunities for long-term growth. We employ a veteran team of investment and client service professionals who deliver exceptional, personal service and industry-leading information to our clients. _________________________________ Important Disclosures that Accompany Navellier & Associates Articles: *Navellier may hold this security in one or more investment strategies offered to its clients. None of the stock information, data, and company information presented herein constitutes a recommendation by Navellier or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities. Any specific securities identified and described do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold, or recommended for advisory clients. The reader should not assume that investments in the securities identified and discussed were or will be profitable. Information presented is general information that does not take into account your individual circumstances, financial situation, or needs, nor does it present a personalized recommendation to you. Individual stocks presented may not be suitable for you. Investment in securities involves significant risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. One cannot invest directly in an index. Results presented include the reinvestment of all dividends and other earnings. Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources Navellier believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and the information may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute Navellier's judgment as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments and should not be relied upon as the sole factor in an investment making decision. Any decision to purchase securities mentioned in this research must take into account existing public information on such security or any registered prospectus. Past performance is no indication of future results. FEDERAL TAX ADVICE DISCLAIMER: As required by U.S. Treasury Regulations, you are informed that, to the extent this presentation includes any federal tax advice, the presentation is not intended or written by Navellier to be used, and cannot be used, for the purpose of avoiding federal tax penalties. Navellier does not advise on any income tax requirements or issues. Use of any information presented by Navellier is for general information only and does not represent tax advice either express or implied. You are encouraged to seek professional tax advice for income tax questions and assistance.

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Comments (12)

@louis navellier author et al
Over 40 years ago my father had a suburban business investment and on the neighboring home development lived Fritz Mondale’s brother and family. Fritz’s high-school-aged niece Nikki worked part-time for my father’s company. They were an undeniably decent family and we wouldn’t even blink at sharing a pew on a Sunday. Nikki died tragically when she raced a train to a crossing and lost, taking two other of her bffs with her. The wake was the only time I met Fritz.

Mondale’s party was also undeniably decent back in those days. My parents were in the other, but the disagreements were more in sourcing funds for public projects, local, state or federal funding, and not so much over principles. Today the DNC seems modeled after Hezbollah more than Humphrey.

40 years before this flashback memory our world was in a race with a freight train called “enlightenment” and trying to ensure the correct engineer was at the helm. A madman chancellor was at the wheel and he took several, too many, of his bfs and bffs with him to an eternity of disrepute when he lost the race. We thought that was the end of it.

Today there is another madman who thinks he knows best racing the train. He is ignoring the hard fought battles that come with such deeply dear matters over life and property and flaunting the norms of decency. He thinks he has the support of International opinion makers in London and Rome and that is enough to deploy war-tactics.

There are 9 billion-ish souls on earth. For all of these 80 years we have proven our fierce devotion to decency in the rough and tumble event called life. Rome has forgotten from whome comes both Grace and Power. There is madness in the West and the East. One infects the other. This should not be. We can do better. It begins by remembering, soberly, lost souls and hard won principles.

We will need to give preferential treatment to those most closely aligned with our principles of decency until madness withdraws or dies away. I expect these decisions have already been made and 2H21 will be restored for our markets. PRC will agree or diminish as they choose.

There is a frantic race to replace fire-lost CDN servers and upgrade and expand in the EU block. They have learned the hardest lesson of all the hardest way possible: a wolf cannot be domesticated.

Select companies will benefit most from this new cycle of spending but the rising tide will raise very many boats across many sectors and nations.

Godspeed to All who desire what is good and Right. I pray that includes PRC sooner than later.
@frmrlyVZguy , "There is madness in the West and the East."

"East is East and West is West and never the twain shall meet." - Rudyard Kipling
SPX will be between 4500~5000 by end of 2021 ..
@1575 , It might reach it by late August 2021...sooner than ya think!
smokyy profile picture
Yes all good points that's why Oppenheimer will sell out now and not wait
@smokyy , Did you read that somewhere?
smokyy profile picture
@kimbillro we are in the business or calling the future!
@smokyy , I don't joke or smoke but I have nothing against Smokey The Bear @smokyy !
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