Employment - March

Apr. 07, 2021 12:53 AM ETSPY, VOO, DIA, IWM, IVV, SH, TNA, SDS, SPXL, TZA, USA, RSP, UPRO, SPXU, SPXS, CRF, SSO, UDOW, JEPI, SDOW, SCHX, VFINX, DOG, VV, DXD, VTWO, DDM, URTY, SRTY, RWM, UWM, TWM, EPS, ZTR, SFY, SPSM, SPDN, SPUU, IWL, FEX, ILCB, YPS, GSEW, EQL, EEH, SPXT, SPXE, SPLX, CHGX, USMC, EDOW, BIBL, RWL, DMRL, DUSA, JHML, OMFS, BAPR, SPXV, HUSV, SPXN, XVV, BAUG, BOCT, BJUL, PAPR, QMJ, UDPIX, BJUN, PJAN, SFLA-OLD, SSPY, UJAN, UOCT, FWDD, PJUN, RYARX, SYE, CSTNL, PAUG, TRND, RYRSX, UAUG1 Comment

David Kotok

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Summary

The creation of 916,000 jobs in the month of March is truly impressive and a sign of a rebound in the nation's economy, bringing the total for the first quarter to 1.6 million jobs.
The March number far exceeds the 647,000 jobs predicted by economists and was nearly twice the 517,000 jobs predicted by ADP.
The unemployment rate dropped from 6.6% to 6.2%.

By Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Vice Chairman & Chief Monetary Economist

The creation of 916,000 jobs in the month of March is truly impressive and a sign of a rebound in the nation's economy, bringing the total for the first quarter to 1.6 million jobs. The March number far exceeds the 647,000 jobs predicted by economists and was nearly twice the 517,000 jobs predicted by ADP. The unemployment rate dropped from 6.6% to 6.2%. Where were all these jobs created? The table below shows the employment situation for the major industry segments of the labor market.

The biggest gains in terms of number of hires were in Construction (110,000), Education and Health Services (101,000), Leisure and Hospitality (280,000), and Government (136,000). But even if jobs continue to grow at the same pace, and that is an heroic assumption given past history, it will be quite a while before the unemployed in those sectors are back to work: from four months for Government workers to nine months for those who were employed in Education and Health Services. But the table also shows that, for some segments, it would take far more than a year for employment to get back to pre-pandemic levels. This point also ignores the fact that there are not only some 9.9 million unemployed workers 16 years and older, but there are also another 6.9 million people not presently in the labor force who want jobs.

So, while we have made some positive steps, there is a long and uncertain road ahead. In addition, it seems clear that recovery will be very uneven in the near term.

Original Post

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.

This article was written by

David Kotok

2.32K Followers

David Kotok co-founded Cumberland Advisors in 1973 and has been its Chief Investment Officer since inception. David’s articles and financial market commentaries have appeared in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, and other publications. He is a frequent contributor to Bloomberg TV and Bloomberg Radio, Yahoo Finance TV, and other media. He has authored or co-authored four books, including the second edition of From Bear to Bull with ETFs and Adventures in Muniland. He holds a B.S. in economics from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, an M.S. in organizational dynamics from The School of Arts and Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania, and an M.A. in philosophy from the University of Pennsylvania.David has served as Program Chairman and currently serves as a Director of the Global Interdependence Center (GIC), www.interdependence.org, whose mission is to encourage the expansion of global dialogue and free trade in order to improve cooperation and understanding among nation states, with the goal of reducing international conflicts and improving worldwide living standards. David chaired its Central Banking Series and organized a five-continent dialogue held in Cape Town, Hong Kong, Hanoi, Milan, Paris, Philadelphia, Prague, Rome, Santiago, Shanghai, Singapore, Tallinn, and Zambia (Livingstone). He has received the Global Citizen Award from GIC for his efforts. David is a member of the National Business Economics Issues Council (NBEIC), the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), has served on the Research Advisory Board of BCA Research and is currently on the advisory board of RiskBridge Advisors. He has also served as a Commissioner of the Delaware River Port Authority (DRPA) and on the Treasury Transition Teams for New Jersey Governors Kean and Whitman. Additionally, he has served as a board member of the New Jersey Economic Development Authority and as Chairman of the New Jersey Casino Reinvestment Development Authority.

Summary

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