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Fundamentals And Technicals Align For Grab, Don't Miss It

Apr. 08, 2021 10:16 PM ETGrab Holdings Limited (GRAB)UBER28 Comments
Made Easy - Finance profile picture
Made Easy - Finance


  • No longer a rumor, Grab is set to go public via Altimeter Growth Corp. at an even better valuation than initially rumored and UBER.
  • Grab's revenue has recovered well over pre-COVID levels and looks to break even on its food delivery segment as it is poised to benefit from recovering economies.
  • Setups and indicators across all three levels (economy, industry, and company) in the top-down approach analysis align to suggest unprecedented growth is ahead of Grab.
  • Technical analysis suggests a good entry point to take position in Grab as a breakout move is currently taking place and a pocket of liquidity is formed at resistance level.
  • Conviction to invest in Grab is derived by strong fundamentals where indicators from all three levels in the top-down approach analysis align while technical analysis provides investors with a good entry point.

Grab bike in green corporate color of jacket and the box to put food. He is prepared to go to deliver food.
Photo by Achisatha Khamsuwan/iStock Editorial via Getty Images


Grab is now set to go public via Altimeter Growth Corp (AGC) as soon as this week. There were several factors that suggest a high probability of this deal going forward. Two

This article was written by

Made Easy - Finance profile picture
Thesis | Price Targets | Analytics | NewslettersMade Easy Finance provides methodological price targets and actionables on growth tech stocks and cryptos.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long AGC. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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Comments (28)

Is Grab going public via AGC or AGCUU??? There are so many tickers.
Made Easy - Finance profile picture
@bloodymoody AGC doesn't have Warrants, AGCUU has. That's all.
@Jireh Chan Yi-Le So they are the same except on the warrants part? Anyway I wonder why it is dropping
Made Easy - Finance profile picture
@bloodymoody Yup. [1]

"Buy the rumor sell the news". Personally I'm adding to my positions.

[1] www.prnewswire.com/...
The whole value of Grab will be determined by whether they are a strong number 1 or remote 2 in every other country apart from Singapore. Singapore is too small and growth figures should be from the other SEA countries.

The risk I see from Grab is govt and regulatory. It seems only the Singapore govt fund is actively involved inside this company. Going forward, the other countries who do not benefit from this company massive valuation will most likely put up a new contender (with the govt able to take a cut from it) to compete with Grab and "unlevel" the playing field thru regulatory changes or govt funding to the new company.
@1200 shares of BABA
Case in point.
GoJek in Indonesia vs Grab. - GoJek is essential in Indonesia, not Grab.
Uber in Singapore vs Grab. Uber got muscled out of Singapore by Grab. If I remembered correctly, things started moving when the govt investments put their weigh behind Grab.
@1200 shares of BABA Even the banking license was given in Singapore, not for the other countries.

Like I say, Singapore is too small and insignificant in terms of revenue and growth. Investors are looking at the potential growth in the other countries for the kind of valuation put up by Grab now.
@1200 shares of BABA As a Malaysian, your perspective is wrong. Grab is the main food delivery and ride platform in Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia as well and it still keep growing.
Dated article w some history of Grab, Gojek, Uber
Made Easy - Finance profile picture
@Could Be thanks for the resource.
AGC is currently pricing Grab very optimistically. Depending on what I read, the estimated value of Grab varies considerably. Here are my concerns and questions:

No lockup? Volatility/instability following the merger? Will formerly private investors sell immediately leaving me holding the bag as the value right sizes? Should I wait until after the merger?

I understand they compete w/ Gojek. Gojek is making moves of its own. How will this battle shakeout?

The digital wallet interests me the most because it seems a unique component. Is it really a “digital wallet” or a connection to a 3rd party payment system? Is Grab’s digital wallet facing competition in their respective region. I have no idea what people in Singapore, Indonesia, etc. have at their disposal and how this technology is moving forward in Southeast Asia currently. Can it become a huge growth/revenue driver?
Made Easy - Finance profile picture
@Could Be

Your concerns are valid, but you could dollar cost average since we can't time the market. At the very least the economy, industry and company drivers and technicals are aligned now.

To my best of knowledge, Gojek is already integrated the fabric of the Indonesian society. I interviewed several people there. From their response it seems they "can't live without" Gojek. Gojek provide them crucial transport services (most of them do not have personal transportation), food delivery, and even jobs. Btw, Gojek is backed by the likes of Google, Facebook, and even Tencent. So as for the Indonesian market, it'll be tough, but Grab is strong in other SEA economies.

According to latest report, GrabPay is leading is singapore. As for its neighboring country Malaysia, not much concrete data, but I expect it to be Touch n Go, or Grab.
@Jireh Chan Yi-Le
Thanks for the reply, additional input, and all the research to start.

It looks like Gojek will be moving forward aggressively as well. I’ll be interested to see what comes of their now proposed merger w/ Tokopedia, which was recently rumored to be merging with the Peter Thiel backed SPAC, Bridgetown Holdings $BTWN, until the news came out they are weighing their options and may go public via IPO...

Both Grab and Gojek may do well for retail investors. Both also have catchy names. Killer branding ;-)
Made Easy - Finance profile picture
@Could Be Yeah. Maybe that's why both are going public to raise enough funds to compete.
We know nothing about valuation yet. I will wait for the investor presentation
Made Easy - Finance profile picture
@GwailoHK It's rumored to be $35bn according to latest development. But exact revenue and profits are not known so we do have to wait for the investor presentation for more information.
@GwailoHK and specifically debt as well.
Charles Ian Tan profile picture
@GwailoHK @jir@Jireh Chan Yi-Le when is the investor presentation announced?
The technical "analysis" confirms how it's really not much more than reading tea leaves, since the triangles could easily be drawn somewhat differently and show very different things.

But the saving grace here is that fundamentals are strong. Grab is pretty huge in SE Asia, and only growing, along with vertical integration and adjacencies. Nice opportunity here, it seems.
Made Easy - Finance profile picture
@Aminator Yes, you're right. Technical analysis doesn't tell us whether a stock is undervalued. That's why I only use technical analysis for timing and entry, not for stock selection. I mainly use the top-down approach for stock selection. Hence, I stated explicitly in the article that fundamentals give us conviction while technicals provide us with timing and entry points.

Yup, it's a gem. We'll see even more explosive growth when its ride-hailing service recovers.
@Aminator indeed. Grab has a strong potential and is well regulated too in where it operates. Sound.
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