Entering text into the input field will update the search result below

Forte Biosciences: Microbiome Therapeutics For Skin Disease

Apr. 09, 2021 6:07 AM ETForte Biosciences, Inc. (FBRX)MCRB, REGN11 Comments
Numenor Capital profile picture
Numenor Capital


  • Forte Biosciences is developing a first-in-class drug for eczema, which affects over 16M patients in the US.
  • Phase 1 data for Forte's lead asset, FB-401, has shown exceptional safety and supported a phase 2 trial that is expected to report data in mid-2021.
  • This has created a compelling entry point in an upcoming binary event that, in our opinion, has a favorable risk-reward profile for an opportunistic investment.

Source: Company


Forte Biosciences (NASDAQ:FBRX) is an early-stage microbiome drug development company. The company's lead drug candidate, FB-401, is a cocktail of microbes to treat atopic dermatitis ("eczema"). Early clinical data has been promising, and given the large patient need and validation of microbiome therapeutics by Seres Therapeutics (MCRB) in C. diff, Forte is an opportunistic investment in a promising drug asset and M&A potential. Long-term, there is the potential to develop more medicines for the skin microbiome; however, Forte's value right now is mainly in FB-401.

Forte went public in 2020 through a reverse merger. The company is focused on developing microbiome drugs for the skin. FB-401 is a unique drug candidate that has shown safety and early efficacy data in eczema patients to reduce inflammation. The company dosed its first patients for a phase 2b trial ("n=124") in September 2020 and is expecting top-line data in mid-2021. FB-401 works to prevent the growth of Staphylococcus aureus, which is a main driver for eczema's pathology and activate TLR5 and TNFR to reduce inflammation.

Atopic dermatitis is an inflammatory skin disease. With over 16M patients in the US and a lot more around the world, there is an opportunity for Forte to improve on the standard of care and even provide a potential cure for some patients. Topical corticosteroids are often used as a frontline treatment with Dupixent ("IL-4 inhibitor") from Regeneron (REGN) as the standard for mild-to-moderate eczema patients. Dupixent generates $1B in sales per year and has set the market and regulatory landscape for Forte to follow on. The company is one of the leaders in drugging the skin microbiome for eczema. Recent clinical data and upcoming phase 2 results have created an opportunity to invest in a promising binary event, and if successful, a business that in our opinion has a

This article was written by

Numenor Capital profile picture
Ladybug Ideas (fka as NC) focuses on value and events in life sciences. Finding unique business models, initially ignored markets, growing product offerings, and compelling teams. Version 2. ladybugideas7@gmail.com

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long FBRX. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Recommended For You

Comments (11)

Any info on survival here?
Failure. What drugs do they have besides this? This is gonna basically go to value of its cash and that is it.
@Drew Richards They reported those results several days ahead of the scheduled date; too bad for those who were pondering getting out... And they canceled the conference call.
I'm not asking them to be Marines, but still, face the music!
New analyst investment report with a new FBRX $90 per share target price.

Giovinco profile picture
it seems that Phase 1/2a was for mild, moderate and severe disease,
while this Phase 2 is only for mild and moderate, is this correct ? ty
Boston Biotech Investors profile picture
@Numenor Capital Do we have an idea on a precise date to expect the release of FBRX's Phase 2 data? I understand it is anticipated in Q32021...but do we know if it is August or September...even better an exact date?

Thank you
Sage Advisors profile picture
Thank you for another well written article. A few points for discussion.

1. FB-401 appears to have the safety advantage over steroids or certainly over Dupixent. Given young children are a target market this will be very relevant to physicians.

2. First line competition is cheap, generic topical steroids. Thus, in marketing, there needs to be a value proposition attractive to insurers in order to become a widely covered, first line therapy. My guess is that FB-401 is likely to be a product priced at a a much more modest price- perhaps even hundreds of dollars per month. Given the size of the market, if successful, even at a modest price point, they have a billion dollar product.

3. Microbiome products are relatively inexpensive/easy to manufacture producing an excellent profit margin.

4. I believe the IP was licensed from the NIH? Royalties?

5. An outright sale to a company better able to market this makes a lot of sense.

The critical catalyst is the Ph 2 data and yes indeed, its a binary event. Thank you Numenor Capital for your analysis.
@Sage Advisors yeah I'm not sure why a 50k price was selected or the rationale. This is where the model fails imo.
Thanks for a nice article. It’s encouraging to see more people becoming optimistic about this stock, even if it’s a risky investment. I only have a small investment because of the high risk of a company that currently has all its eggs in one basket. As always, a diverse portfolio is a safer one.
Disagree with this article? Submit your own. To report a factual error in this article, . Your feedback matters to us!

About FBRX

SymbolLast Price% Chg
Market Cap
Yield (TTM)
Rev Growth (YoY)
Short Interest
Prev. Close
Compare to Peers

More on FBRX

Related Stocks

SymbolLast Price% Chg
To ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.
Is this happening to you frequently? Please report it on our feedback forum.
If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh.