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The Week On Wall Street: It's All About Earnings


  • Earnings are simply staggering and justify every bit of this rally to new highs.
  • Interest rates may now be ready to make a move higher.
  • The "primary" trend has pushed markets to new highs and many are now calling for a market "correction".
  • Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at The Savvy Investor. Learn More »

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Photo by Aquir/iStock via Getty Images

"It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong." - John Maynard Keynes

It's that time of year again. The old market axiom says that investors should "sell in May and go away," implying that stocks

The stock market is at new highs, and the consensus view calls for a "correction". 

It's no secret, there are risks being presented to investors now. 

On the fundamental side, the "seeds of change" are planted."

How and when these potential changes impact the investing landscape is the key to any strategy now. This is no time to be wandering around without a plan.

It's time to graduate. Join the Savvy Investor Marketplace service, and join the group of investors that have reaped the rewards of the solid advice being offered.


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This article was written by

Fear & Greed Trader profile picture

Fear & Greed Trader is an independent financial adviser and professional investor with 35 years of experience in all market conditions. His strategies focus on achieving positive returns and preserving capital during bear and bull markets and he has a documented track record of calling the equity market correctly for the 10+ years.

He is the leader of the investing group The Savvy Investor where he focuses on sharing advice to help investors avoid the pitfalls that wreak havoc on a portfolio during bear markets. Features of the group include: Macro updates 7 days a week, ETF selections, covered call writing strategies, and live chat 24/7. Learn More.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long EVERY STOCK/ETF IN THE SAVVY PLAYBOOK. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Any claims made regarding specific Stocks/ ETF’s and performance contained in this report are fully documented in the Savvy Investor Service. My Playbook is positioned to take advantage of the bull market with NO hedges in place. This article contains my views of the equity market, it reflects the strategy and positioning that is comfortable for me. IT IS NOT A BUY-AND-HOLD STRATEGY. Of course, it is not suited for everyone, as each individual situation is unique. Hopefully, it sparks ideas, adds some common sense to the intricate investing process, and makes investors feel calmer, putting them in control. The opinions rendered here, are just that – opinions – and along with positions can change at any time. As always I encourage readers to use common sense when it comes to managing any ideas that I decide to share with the community. Nowhere is it implied that any stock should be bought and put away until you die. Periodic reviews are mandatory to adjust to changes in the macro backdrop that will take place over time. The goal of this article is to help you with your thought process based on the lessons I have learned over the last 35+ years. Although it would be nice, we can't expect to capture each and every short-term move.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Comments (118)

Steve: Fantastic work as always. Thank you for such a good description of the Primary Trend. It does not seem like it would be wise to fight that. - Mike
Fear & Greed Trader profile picture

You are welcome

I'm still watching the two words

Policy Error

starting to see more evidence
Love your commentary, it provides much wisdom that many simply and frankly intentionally avoid. My question is what do you think of manipulation of hedge funds, market makers, etc. and massive short selling on individual stocks.. It seems the retailer investor not only has to be thoughtful on specific stock purchases not just on fundamentals / technicals ... but what the movers of the market dictate. It seems too many big players (allegedly) bash a stock while so their investors can buy (or vice versa). Is this really true or proportionally true in your opinion? And what should retail investors do? Sure I get the solid response.... pick a good company (i.e. mgmt., products, rev., EPS, etc.) and be patient. But what should retail investors for due diligence to fight back against the forces against much of us?
Fear & Greed Trader profile picture

i believe what you describe has been with us for a while

and for the most part, the retail investor isn't materially affected in the long run.

it is frustrating when a stock gets hammered based on an "opinion" , then we watch that opinion totally fall apart. I've owned stocks that were involved in BEAR raids by hedge funds that took large short positions then pounded their story, they make their money and move on

its part of the game

in the scope of all the trading that goes on it really doesn't happen that often,

However, it would be beneficial and more transparent if the regulatory agencies would take a diff approach to these types of situation
Greg Hudson profile picture
"a fictitious 'trade war'"

I think it was just an unsuccessful attempt at a trade war by an unpredictable person, and folks may underestimate the business benefit of removing that volatile element. It made it hard for businesses to plan and invest.

Edit: I changed "unstable" to "unpredictable" above (by which I mean hard to predict across a range of outcomes rather than impossible to predict). The volatility argument doesn't require thinking he was unstable, so it was needlessly contentious.
Fear & Greed Trader profile picture
@Greg Hudson


with ZERO cinsequences
Greg Hudson profile picture
@Fear & Greed Trader Neither fictitious nor zero consequences, but I agree it didn't end up doing much.

This is such a small side point to your piece that I'm sorry to distract by quibbling with it. When I see someone make a questionable, absolute blanket statement like that, it just makes me question how they think. It's certainly not the hallmark of someone taking a measured, empirical approach.

I mean, if you're just saying it was "overblown by the media" I could certainly concede the merits of that argument, but a fiction? The MSM did not create a fake trade war to [fill in the blank].

Trump unilaterally initiated a bunch of real tarrifs as punishment for China's alleged wrongdoing, which resulted in retaliatory tariffs. That's definitionally a trade war. I believe he said something like "Trade wars are good and easy to win." Calling it a fiction now seems like the actual fabrication. Hope I'm entirely misunderstanding you, but unfortunately my guess is that this is rehashing some political talking point rather than an earnest assertion.

Setting all that aside, I wanted to thank you again for the unusually useful data and commentary you've provided here for free for years. You continue to be a weekly read, providing worthwhile content head and shoulders above most of the drivel pushed out in the financial press. Here's hoping we can all stay objective and use that to navigate the markets successfully. Your contributions are much appreciated.
@Greg Hudson

Sorry but I can't resist chiming in with a small but serious quibble here.

"Trump unilaterally initiated a bunch of real tarrifs as punishment for China's alleged wrongdoing, which resulted in retaliatory tariffs."

Alleged? Really?

Many countries have rightly accused China of many bad behaviors with regards to trade and business dealings. China has faced cases initiated by multiple countries, and has received ruling by an international body against it; but China blithely ignored the ruling.

Any GOOD reason why the USA, EU, Australia, and the other far Eastern countries shouldn't take actions to try to dissuade China from rampant cheating on agreements, from pirating $billions of intellectual property, and from other grossly unfair practices?

People may disagree on whether Trump's trade war was much of a trade war or not, or what the effects may have been. That's fine. I think the effects were not so major.

But let's be clear. Trump did not start, nor is he to blame, for poor relations with China. China has long been the cheater, the transgressor, the party at fault and deliberately so for its own unfair advantage.

Right now China is having worsening relations with Australia, India, Vietnam, the Phillipines, and many more countries -- BECAUSE China is aggressing, transgressing, and cheating both in business and in grabbing massive sea areas it clearly does not own -- which are many hundreds of miles from its shores, and are very close to those other countries' shores, building and militarizing islands and coral reefs...the list of territorial transgressions and aggressions is extensive.

I suppose what irks me is the presumption that *pushing back* against bad behavior and aggression/transgression is the start of problems and is the fault of the one pushing back (in this case, Trump). No, the responsibility for problems such as these falls squarely upon the transgressor. A little belated pushback can be better than none.

Trump did actually quite little to push back on China given the magnitude and breadth of China's chronic offenses.

I don't believe in blaming the kid who resists the schoolyard bully by finally fighting back. That kid disturbed the peaceful status quo; all he had to do was let the bully keep stealing his lunch money! Well, so say many. The truth is, sometimes you can't let it continue even if it causes issues pushing back, and even if it costs you a price too.

Anyone conversant in game theory knows you can't just keep letting an opponent eat your lunch, and eventually your entire cow, one bite at a time. If you play poker you know you CAN'T just keep letting a bully steal your blinds, even if fighting back can be costly on occasion.

The best way to stop a grade-school bully from continuing his bad behavior is actually to give him a bloody nose. Trump didn't even come close to bloodying China's nose, but an attempt at pushback was necessary -- and still is.

China is doing its best right now to coerce, punish and intimidate Australia -- I wish these politicians (especially in the EU, sorry) would grow some stones and together all at once push back hard against China. Sure, they all "need" China, BUT -- collectively, China needs all of them more than they need China. So hardball works if you have the power and the will. We need to see more will along with concerted pushback from many countries, though. Given China's ever-increasing bullying, transgressing, and belligerence, just maybe we'll see it. If so, well China brought it on itself.

Sorry for going further off-topic and for such a long post, but imo, these things needed to be said (well once, anyway ;-)).

You may of course have the last word if you wish, Greg.
Thank you FGT for a great summary again.
FAANGs are successful tech companies and clear industry leaders. However, if we expect "softer" May, "softer" summer - would it make sense to invest in real estate, dividend stocks as well?
Fear & Greed Trader profile picture

like both of your ideas , especially the div stock angle. 😎
FAAGM just killed it this quarter, each and every one! Very nice summary F&G as we head into May thank you! Commodities have really broken out in 2021 with a number of them inching or surpassing all time highs. Some of them like copper and lumber are starting to pose an economic problem, so something to keep an eye on.

Also, now that corporate buy back machine is back in motion that should do its part to keep selloffs from extending too far. It's amazing that even with the huge buy backs in place both Apple and Google saw their cash positions *increase* this last quarter.
Fear & Greed Trader profile picture

love those buybacks ,

have no use for the politicians that don't 😎
Even places like The Motley Fool are pushing the coming "crash" scenario.

"For months, the biggest telltale indicator of an upcoming crash has been the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, which is also commonly known as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio (CAPE). The S&P 500's Shiller P/E is a measure of average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years.

On April 26, with the S&P 500 closing at a fresh all-time high, the Shiller P/E ratio crept up to 37.62. That's well over double the average Shiller P/E (16.81) for the benchmark index since 1870 and its highest level since the dot-com bubble nearly two decades ago.

But doubling up the average S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio throughout history isn't what's scary. What's worrisome is if you analyze how the S&P 500 responded each and every time the Shiller P/E has previously hit and sustained a ratio above 30 during a bull market. The 30 level has only been breached five times since 1870 in a continuous bull market, and in each of the previous four instances, the S&P 500 eventually declined by 20% to 89% from its peak."
The ratio has been above 30 for 30 of the last 47 months, and has been above 30 since July 2020. By contrast, before the crash of 1929, the ratio was above 30 for 2 months.

BTW, the 30 level was never reached before the Great Recession, so it failed to forecast that crash.

Also, from December 1998 through August 2000, the ratio spent all 21 months above the 40 level prior to the dot com crash. We haven't seen one month yet approaching the 40 ratio.

The sky-is-about-to-fall crowd will latch onto any conceivable excuse to push their bearish stance.
Fear & Greed Trader profile picture

Shillwer, 😎,

anyone using shiller has already been destroyed.
@msbreb1978 Shiller ratio has not been helpful for calling tops or corrections for many years. It has been brought out many times but the market just continue to take its own path up.
I fully affirm your comments about ignoring words and focusing on action when it comes to D.C. There will be a lot of sound and fury but the votes are simply not there to make the radical changes some in the Democrat party desire. Reconciliation can't be applied to multiple bills in a year - even if they do get Manchin on board.

And even with reconciliation, there are limits. How's that $15 federal minimum wage doing? Oh, wait, it got dropped from the stimulus bill, didn't it, and didn't pass when Bernie and a few others offered it as an amendment. (58-42)

Us who have watched the critters in D.C. for a few decades (both parties) know a lot of what we see is theater for fundraising.

And I am also content that if there is some truly damaging aspects to future legislation, we are getting past the point in the calendar when they can be retroactive to Jan 1st 2021.

And then.....next year....a very tight election year for Congress awaits.

Staying long. Thanks for the article.
Fear & Greed Trader profile picture

excellent point on the political front,

maybe I too have been overly infected by the "noise" I'm hearing about the "radical" movement 😎
Grisby profile picture
A question is whether greed can get much higher than it already is, has it ever been as high? Seems the primary trend is on the verge of transition?
Fear & Greed Trader profile picture

wheres does the chart show transition? a true black swan event like the virus has no warning, but the typical "change" , has a flattening period and then a slow rollover. we see no such activity now.

best to you
Grisby profile picture
@Fear & Greed Trader Thanks for your comment, I was referring not to a chart but the current level of investor greed, the improving economy and the associated necessary rise in rates, which will no doubt initiate the next bear. Granted this is likely a few months away but some preparation seems prudent.
Fear & Greed Trader profile picture


if you arent looking at a chart to even begin thinking about starting to "prepare" you are doing your self a disservice

all else is noise,
I liked your review of Mike Wilson’s track record on corrections; yet they keep bringing these people back on to scare the heck out of you. CNBC should have done a double whammy and had Bill Ackman on at the same time. The IRS funding is a complete waste. In the past when Obama had the IRS on the attack, they found very little fraud. It’s just a way to add government workers and spend more.
They we’ll be coming for tax revenues from the middle class . Everyone pays and the poor will be affected the most. Look at commodities, etc. It’s crazy!
ruber-rant profile picture
@huskers123 Wilson’s reasoning is sound. He’s not recommending leveraged shorting but carrying higher than normal cash allocations
Fear & Greed Trader profile picture

Agreed ,

IRS funding is a waste and a slap in the face to the people that still need assistance, we need to do this now? coming about of a pandemic? some businesses that are still closed still need help

that is a message from the admin that should scare people

the "words' say one thing--- the "actions" tell another story.

obama's IRS was condoned and was a disgrace - they operated like the Gestapo.
Fear & Greed Trader profile picture

fine but what if i did that to all of my client accounts last August. ❓

and possibly stepped that up with the other warnings ❓

where exactly was the trend change (other than a person's EMOTION) that would prompt that approach ❓

invest with emotion and you are lost.

Mike likes to deal with a 'feeling"

Enjoy !!
Excellent report F+GT, thanks for throwing in your tech and energy stocks, I have FB, AAPL, AMZN and SHOP, but none of the others, think maybe I’ll take a look at them. The stimulus money, especially the unemployment benefits are making it hard for businesses to reopen here in Northern California, some businesses are now offering bonuses to workers to return to work. Service employees are making more money staying home, so some restaurants are remaining closed, the local Denny’s and IHOP have closed up for good and a Waffle Barn remains closed. Other small businesses are begging for workers, with signs in their windows but few takers. The stimulus money is keeping younger folks home with their parents and fueling Robinhood, so I think we’ve had enough stimulus, time to move on.
Fear & Greed Trader profile picture

same problem here on the east coast of NC-- small businesses cant get help,

but they are open and doing the best they can

"policy error" is causing this nightmare
Small Town Lawyer profile picture
@Fear & Greed Trader Same problem in the NC Piedmont. I know a McDonalds franchise owner who is offering $500 hiring bonuses and still doesn’t have enough people to resume indoor dining.
diroha profile picture
@Small Town Lawyer Play this out and wages have to go higher if the Dems decide to keep sending out stimulus checks and/or they simply increase benefits permanently. No need to pass higher minimum wage legislation to get a higher minimum wage.
Tiki Bar Capital profile picture
FGT – There seems to be a consensus among the institutional crowd that the market is “stretched” and that a correction is imminent. I suppose if enough big investors dump stocks, a correction becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. But let’s all keep in mind that the “smart money” has often been wrong over the past 15 months. I suspect that’s the case now.

I’ve been pondering whether my generally bullish view for the near and intermediate terms suffers from big defects. So this week I asked myself: What are the fears? Are they valid? Do they add up to a bear case? Here goes.

1. High stock valuations – Valid concern. But with super-easy monetary policy, seemingly infinite federal government spending, organic demand about to skyrocket with full reopening, and really strong S&P 500 earnings, valuations are very arguably justified.

2. Punitive taxes on corporations and big investors to finance Biden's titanic tax & spend agenda – Valid. But the most damaging aspects of Biden’s proposals are likely to be watered down in the Senate. Still, this is a “wait and see” item. Concern is rational.

3. Growing evidence of inflation – Valid. But ultimately I see this as a plus for stocks, at least the ones with pricing power. Also favors inflation hedges like gold and crypto.

4. Lockdowns and slow vaccination progress overseas threatening to stall the global recovery – I’m skeptical of this one. These lockdowns will probably be short (a few months?), vaccinations will catch up eventually, and my semi-educated guess is overseas reopenings should only be delayed a few months.

5. The US economic rebound being hampered by supply chain delays and the federal government paying workers to stay home – Valid. Supply chains worry me. I read a report that it will take nearly a year for the microchip supply chain to catch up. (Terrible for automakers.) As for workers, “stimmie” checks don’t last forever. I’m figuring enough unfilled service industry positions will get filled by early-to-mid summer. Overall, a mixed bag.

6. Concerns that a dollar rally is imminent – Valid and generally unexpected. My view is that the coming economic bonanza is going to attract capital to the US and send the DXY index higher, despite Pres. Biden’s money-printing press running full time. How much will the dollar rise? I’m not sure, but it’s a negative for US multinationals to the extent it does.


So overall, I understand the big concerns, but I think the bull case is still quite intact. None of this seems insurmountable given the power of reopening and government stimulus.

That said, I wonder whether the political scene is behind a lot of the recent apprehension. There’s a real paradigm shift in the Democratic Party’s economic thinking that the average investor probably doesn’t fully appreciate – the embrace of “Modern Monetary Theory,” whereby the federal government prints money with wild abandon until inflation becomes a problem. The WSJ had a good report this week on this new class of politically progressive economic engineers. “The new economic guard hasn’t seen inflation in 50 years and doesn’t worry much about it. It doesn’t worry much about budget deficits either. The fading of these concerns has opened the floodgates to expansive new government spending programs.” https://t.co/BChyIqm4DK?amp=1

Hmmm… debasing our currency and potentially the country’s credit rating to pay for massive expansion of entitlement programs – what could possibly go wrong?

It gives rise to a sense of apprehension about the country’s economic future, and by extension the stock market. I think Leon Cooperman articulated this anxiety pretty well: “Cooperman told CNBC on Friday the stock market will be lower a year from today as stocks face downward pressure from rising interest rates, higher taxes, and inflation.” “www.msn.com/... He is short-term bullish, longer-term bearish – keeping an eye on the exits.

Would I be surprised by a selloff? I suppose not. But I think it would be short-lived unless it’s triggered by the more radical elements of Biden’s anti-business/anti-investor agenda becoming law. If that happens, a full-blown correction might be the least of our concerns.

Be of good courage, my friends.

Gelston profile picture
@Tiki Bar Capital love your thoughts, TBC. more please.
I am finally home after 3 months in the hospital. Life is wonderful when Uncle Sam pays young, energetic ladies wait on you. Beats investing.
Fear & Greed Trader profile picture
@Tiki Bar Capital

great summary 👍

"""That said, I wonder whether the political scene is behind a lot of the recent apprehension."""

it is my chief concern BUT as of today it is not affecting my investment strategy,

there probably will be a time that it does , and we should all be on the lookout for that time

I'm also very much concerned about the radicalism we see emerging with groups that continue to destroy property because "they" don't like something.

it's more than the actual destruction it's the fact that it is being allowed with no consequence.
Fear & Greed Trader profile picture

nice to see you here this week, as I have mentioned before

the VERY best to you

Thank you @Fear & Greed Trader....great commentary and insights. Agree on big energy being nicely positioned(XOM/CVX) and also on the FAANG's taking a beating after blowout quarters being an opportunity to add. Also, BRK had great earnings today. All well....but completely agree with your final thoughts...."pay attention"... to all the signals coming out of DC and Wall St.....stay on your toes!! No complacency here. Enjoy your weekend.
Fear & Greed Trader profile picture
@User 286


and hope u have a great weekend
TSampson profile picture
@Fear & Greed Trader Steve an excellent synopsis! Your CO2/capita chart is excellent. Spot on as to the trillions we are about to waste on the new green deal. Reality: China is going to continue to push EVs and use their dirty coal to make the fuel(electricity) to power their nation along. They have massive stores of rare earth metals and will have no problem continuing down this path. This will allow them to decrease their reliance on foreign oil and become more independent from the rest of the world. Our efforts to drive C02 down even further will have no effect in the grand scheme of things. I am betting there are a number of Democrat senators from more conservative states that will reign in the new green deal. We will see. On the investment front, I have been adding to my dividend stocks and EM stocks to balance out what has been an overweight growthy portfolio for the last year. Completely agree on the FAANG stocks and I add MSFT to the list too.
Fear & Greed Trader profile picture

I am hoping you are right about the more conservative Dems ,

I'm not so confident,

while I do see the need for alternative energy sources, EV's etc. the way we are going about It here in the US is going to turn out to be a massive waste of money and initially wind up hurting more individuals than helping.

the idea of a new massive wave of green energy jobs is a pipe dream. they will come but it will take years.
Not many, if any, planets in alignment these days to cry about.

A good read, as always - thank you.
Fear & Greed Trader profile picture


and you are welcome
Ramonsito profile picture
Thank you so much for your cogent analysis. Saturday morning with your article and a cup of coffee is a happy custom in our household.
Nick Langman profile picture
The astonishing results of faamg and their subsequent stock performance doesn’t make sense to me any. Any ideas? Or are they ‘growing’ into a more palatable PE?
Fear & Greed Trader profile picture
@Nick Langman

look at where they came from not what happened after earnings.

I.E. AAPL is up 150% since the March '19 lows. the short and intermediate trend is very much in tact.

nothing wrong with FB & GOOG move

AMZN now just rallying after consolidation, and that was after more than doubling off the Covid lows.

same with NFLX,

there is nothing wrong with this group, in fact, it tells me there isn't all this euphoria that folks are worried about

if there was , these stocks would have doubled again.

the fact that they haven't is a good sign, not a warning..

Nick Langman profile picture
@Fear & Greed Trader yes, thanks, you’re right
Buyandhold 2012 profile picture
4 stocks that I follow were up by more than 10% this week.

ALT: up 16.32%

GME: up 14.82%

NOK: up 11.43%

OSTK: up 16.16%

And the granddaddy of all stocks, Berkshire Hathaway, is up 46.43% in the past 52 weeks, now $412,500.

Isn't it wonderful to be an investor in the stock market?

With all of that money, you can buy extra peat moss for your garden.
@Buyandhold 2012
Buy momma a new luxury car and throw in a Chanel purse. I have to share the booty in my house or be called a cheap skate! It’s the price I pay for showing my wife how to use the stock app on her iPhone.😉🤨
Buyandhold 2012 profile picture

My mother does have a Chanel purse.

Can't recall which boyfriend bought it for her.

She would never buy anything so extravagant.

And she does drive a luxury car.

In fact, two luxury cars.

She has a Toyota Camry in Connecticut and in Florida.

Her boyfriend, who is almost 11 years younger than she is ( he's 89 and we call him her boy toy) drives a big Old Lincoln Town Car. He says it's comfortable and safe if he is ever rear ended by a Honda. I warn him to stay away from semis on the highway and not to speed.
Fear & Greed Trader profile picture
@Buyandhold 2012

it sure is wonderful IF one has been on the "right " side

and it appears you have been there for a long time

Great article, Steve.

Everything in proper perspective long-term, medium-term, and short-term :-)

Makes me think of a captain on a classic sailing-ship .... with a telescope high up on the riggings, binoculars on the deck, and a microscope down in his quarters :-)
shoemakerdds profile picture
It is not” All about earnings” as your article masterfully articulated and contradicted the title. Absolutes such as all, never, always are seldom accurate. I and many others greatly appreciate your brilliant, broad based analysis. Many thanks.
RoseNose profile picture
Thanks Steve for sharing and especially the S&P chart!
Chug Chugging along and very close to the 20 day moving average; which looks to me to mean a pause for a bit or a quiet May and summer.... I am staying invested and cautious with quality and it seems to work just fine. My portfolio is up in value and still paying the dividends,and some being raised; loving it all !
Happy Investing :)) Rose
Fear & Greed Trader profile picture

its always nice to enjoy the "good times"

Be well

Happy Investing
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