We Are Buying The Maxar Dip

Summary

• MAXR delivered unspectacular earnings on Monday after the close. In and of themselves, just a little dull, not terrible.
• The earnings call, however, was a lesson in how to not handle weak earnings. And so the selloff began in earnest.
• 24 hours after earnings, the stock was down 25%. Remarkable.
• This, we believe, is a dip to be bought. Not because the company is beyond criticism, far from it, but the contrary - because the pressure to deliver for investors is now heaped on the company.
• We bought in staff accounts during Tuesday and expect to continue to do so on any prolonged weakness. We rate Maxar at Buy.
• Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at The Fundamentals. Learn More »

Photo by solarseven/iStock via Getty Images

DISCLAIMER: This note is intended for US recipients only and in particular is not directed at, nor intended to be relied upon by any UK recipients. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Cestrian Capital Research, Inc., its employees, agents or affiliates, including the author of this note, or related persons, may have a position in any stocks, security or financial instrument referenced in this note. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Companies referenced in this note or their employees or affiliates may be customers of Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. values both its independence and transparency and does not believe that this presents a material potential conflict of interest or impacts the content of its research or publications.

Tough Week

Your regular 2020 kind of "buy the dip" note used to go thus: market's a bit jittery, company X missed earnings by a sliver or didn't raise guidance enough, stock's off 10-15%, buy, wait, collect free money as the market lifts all boats, even those with small holes in the hull. But this is 2021, so this isn't that note.

Maxar Technologies (NYSE:MAXR) reported Monday after the close. The stock has been looking somewhat shaky since the company raised equity in February to redeem some expensive junior debt that was itself raised to keep the wolf from the door back in 2019. The price at which the new money was raised, around $40/share, wasn't untoward in our view and when the stock sold off afterward we chalked that up to nothing different to how, say, Twilio (TWLO) reacted when it raised new money lately. But it was not to be. The stock has struggled to get past $40 ever since. And so heading into earnings, we sold our short-term staff account position in MAXR, filling at $39 and change for a modest gain (we bought the dip on the post-equity-raise swoon). Flagged to subscribers ahead of time as always. Kept our long term position in place. Glad we lightened up, as a number of our subscribers said. Because here's what happened.

Maxar Q1 Earnings

The Q1 numbers weren't so good. Here's the progression from Q1 2020 to Q1 2021. First, backlog down to EBITDA.

Source: Company SEC Filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis

Backlog is down sequentially for two quarters now and in each case it is the funded element that has declined. And revenue growth was just 3% vs. Q1 2020. On the other hand, EBITDA (which for all our covered stocks we calculate as operating income + depreciation & amortization + stock based comp, we ignore company-specific adjustments) was up 22% on the same quarter last year.

Source: Company SEC Filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis

Unlevered pre-tax FCF was negative for the quarter (capex was low but working capital outflow wasn't) but remains positive on a TTM basis, which is, we hope, the new normal for MAXR.

Source: Company SEC Filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis

Finally, leverage, MAXR's nemesis these last couple years, was down materially from 6.1x TTM EBITDA as of 31 December 2020 to 5.1x TTM EBITDA as of 31 March 2021. That's still a lot of leverage, particularly when you consider that cashflow is a lot less than EBITDA, but it's going in the right direction. The reduction was funded, of course, by the $400m equity raise that MAXR conducted earlier this year - you see that in the increase in shares outstanding, from 63m to 72m.

So far, so ... so-so. Of all the numbers above it's the backlog that concerns us most. If the backlog is growing you can solve for many problems as the revenue starts to flow through. That's not where MAXR is right now. We suspect that the company will say, absent the launch of the new Legion fleet of observation satellites, we are capacity-constrained and cannot sell so much new work. And that may be true. But falling backlog is falling backlog.

Revenue and earnings were impacted by a $28m charge related to the failure of a satellite built by MAXR and sold to Sirius. Quite why this satellite failed we aren't sure and have seen little discussion of. $28m is more than one-third of this quarter's EBITDA; and if the fault is with MAXR's build of the device, we as shareholders would like to know that, because it impacts on our confidence in their ability to build Legion spacecraft. If the fault lies elsewhere but contractually MAXR has to take a hit even though it was not their fault at all, again, this would speak to our confidence in the Legion build. But we suspect MAXR has disclosed all that it can disclose on this topic so we just have to file it under that familiar refrain, "space is hard".

We Need To Talk About That Call

The market did not like the above, and in particular, we might speculate, the market really did not like further delays to that Legion launch. Supply chain problems lie everywhere in physical industries right now, and that there are supplier problems from Honeywell (HON) and Raytheon (RTX) as the company explained on the call isn't in and of itself surprising. But when the hopes and fears of the stock price have been pinned on a singularity - the Legion launch - for so long, then a further pushback of the event horizon is going to rankle. And rankle it did, as we shall see from the stock chart in a moment.

The earnings call itself was not, in our view, well handled. In a poor or so-so quarter, Corporate PR 101 teaches you, face up and 'fess up to the bad stuff square on, explain why it happened, why it won't happen again due to the process improvements X and Y that your top team has already worked on, and, now, let's talk about some good stuff and ooh look at this bright shiny object over here. That such a call is pure theater matters not - it's the salve the market wants to hear, and it usually works. We didn't get that here. We got too much bravado early in the call wherein the team succeeded in appearing perhaps more worried than they actually are (why are they overcompensating in this way? one wondered) and then the coup de grace for us was right at the end when this happened:

(Source: SeekingAlpha Call Transcript)

Ciarmoli works for a sellside firm called Truist; Biggs Porter is the MAXR CFO.

It's not great when the CFO of a $4bn EV company doesn't know the quarter's bookings numbers, on the earnings call. Porter is usually better than that. His style borders on the somnolent but he is usually all over the numbers. So we can write it off to a bad day, but again, doesn't help confidence in the stock on a shaky call.

The culmination of all of this was:

Source: TradingView

Oh dear.

The Next Chapter

So, now we enter into a new part of the MAXR stock story. Here's how we see the chapters thus far. We have documented all this at length but here's a mercifully short precis: In prehistory before 2019, too much debt from too many poor acquisitions, edifice cracked and ready to crumble, satellite fails (nb, not one built by MAXR, so there are no echoes in the Sirius fail), whoops there goes the cashflow, leverage does the levering thing and crushes the equity down to $5, $6/share. CEO duly fired. January 2019, in rides the new king, the current CEO Dan Jablonsky. A lawyer by training. That's a good thing in a company where the biggest threat is the balance sheet and the participants therein. Jablonsky proceeds to do a grade-A-star job keeping the wolves and barbarians from the door. Debt reparceled, repackaged, maturities kicked down the road, big slug of equity raised from a huge disposal in the teeth of the Covid crisis, backlog growing, and, glory of glories, by Q4 2020 the company is actually cashflow positive on an unlevered pretax basis, per our note linked above. Stock closes 2020 at around $38. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is what good looks like in restructuring. DJ take a bow.

2021 brings overexuberance wrought by the pending launch of an Ark Invest space-sector ETF, ARKX. Stock shoots up and drops back again. Nothing to see here. Iridium (IRDM) did the same. You can pin the MAXR drop on it not being included in ARKX if you like, but since IRDM is an ARKX holding and it, too, dropped back, that analysis cannot be correct. Space investors just got a little overexcited, that's all. Happens. The company then raised $400m of new equity from institutional investors in order to redeem some of that pricey can-kicked-down-the-road debt. Management caught a lot of grief for that (see all stock boards everywhere on the topic) but we thought, smart move. Buy some time, cut your cash interest costs. Stock's up, that's the time to do it. What was notable about the raise was the choice of underwriters, which was the combined might of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Not just one of Wall Street's finest, but both. Now, not only do these folks not come cheap - other banks are also available - but they have more work than they can handle right now, and so the only reason we think their business review committees would have taken on a measly $400m raise from a "sorry, who?" kind of company like Maxar, was that old chestnut, the prospect of more business ahead. And since MAXR is already traded publicly, we can think of only one sufficiently juicy piece of business ahead, which is, a nice 2-3% of EV payday to sell the business. So, the bootcamp trainees at everyone's favorite investment banks get to work dialing for dollars. And do a great job. Money raised, debt redeemed, job done.

Oops. Bunch of unhappy investors who bought in at $40/share or thereabouts, having been sold a very happy story by their friendly private placement agent, now looking at a $30-or-less-stock just five minutes later. Their first call? Not Jablonsky, Porter, nor MAXR IR. Their first call is to messrs. Goldman, Sachs, Morgan and/or Stanley. And one can only speculate as to the tone and choice of language of such a call.

Now, for this reason we say: buy the dip. You see - not your 2020 buy the dip. Very much a 2021 buy the dip. Because we now have an admixture of (1) very annoyed new institutional shareholders holding a big ol' bag (2) very annoyed tier-1 investment banks who no doubt only agreed to do the placement as a way to curry future favor for that bright shiny object known as an M&A process (3) rattled management team who clearly did not enjoy the prospect or reality of the earnings call and therefore bringing it all together (4) one of the more tetchy kinds of board calls following all of this soap opera. If all this sounds bad for shareholders, it isn't. Read on.

The pressure is on. The operational challenges ahead are significant and the management team now has to prove that they can not only restructure (which, again, they have delivered with bells on and pixie dust sprinkled on top) but also grow. Those two tasks are very different and it is rare indeed that one management team can do both. And the institutional shareholders and board of directors and, indeed, the managers themselves at MAXR know that. So everyone will likely be getting a little itchy right now about who will be the CEO and CFO in due course. And if the track record so far of this team is anything to go by, we think that means these guys will get up even earlier in the morning, chow down the bircher, do the sun salutes and get to work before anyone else. As it should be. And we think this pressure can deliver good things. Like, a lot more than $40 good things.

MAXR Is Undervalued Versus Its Most Direct Comparable

MAXR right now is valued in the region of 2.4x TTM revenue and 10.2x TTM EBITDA.

Source: Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis

That is frankly peanuts. If you compare to Iridium which went through many similar travails (remember - space is hard), you find the following:

Source: YCharts.com

The above numbers are just pulled from the public datafeeds. We would argue with the definitions of EBITDA used and if it was us we would be getting into the delta between cashflow and EBITDA being different across the two stocks. So the comparison isn't perfect. But we are talking here about a 4x difference in revenue multiple and a nearly 2x difference in EBITDA multiple between two companies growing at much the same rate in much the same industry. Yes, IRDM handles your phone calls and MAXR your Google Maps but zoom out people, they both lob comms devices in the sky and run services over them. Not so different. MAXR unfortunately builds the things too so it deserves a discount on multiple but again, we are talking a 4x delta in revenue multiple here.

It wasn't always thus for IRDM. When the company was betwixt and between satellite fleets, as MAXR is now, when nobody believed it could ever generate real cashflow and pay down its debt, which, er, is where MAXR is now, IRDM carried a much more measly set of multiples. Look:

Source: YCharts.com

You see that big step up during 2018? That's when the new birds flew and worked and started raining cashflow on they heads over there in McLean, VA. And that is where MAXR is headed, if they can loft Legion and get it working. Not easy, delayed yes, but who said anything worthwhile was ever easy? If it was easy, it wouldn't pay well, would it?

How Well Might It Pay?

So. We see two ways of making very good money from here in MAXR stock. Either the current team gets their groove on and delivers, in which case, 6x revenue and above isn't at all out of the question, or, they decide, too hard, call their new Wall Street buddies and sell the business. Which isn't, in our humble opinion, likely to sell for much less than 4x revenue.

Let's not get overexcited. Let's say the company is sold for 3.6x revenue by the end of 2021 and let's say revenue is flat from now till then. 3.6x TTM revenue = 3.6x $1.73bn = $6.2bn enterprise value.

Let's say no net cash is generated from here to the end of the year and say the balance sheet looks the same then as it does now. Net debt of $2.1bn right now, per the tables above. So, $6.2bn enterprise value minus $2.1bn net debt gives you $4.1bn equity value. Now pay the fees. Let's call it $250m worth of fees. Yes we know. Yes. You're right. But that's what it costs, more or less. OK, so after we've paid the investment banks and accountants and lawyers and everyone else who came out of the woodwork, we have $4.1bn - $250m = $3.85bn of equity value left. We have 72m shares outstanding, call it 73m for the sake of argument since there will be all kinds of comp plans and convertible this that and other floating around, 1m shares ought to cover that eventuality. So, $3.85bn / 73m = $53/share. And as you can see we've dialed down the ambition in most every level of that calculation. If we said a range of $45-60/share we think that will stand up to any inspection. If you call Goldman and Morgan Stanley now, early May, this thing can be sold by Q4 no problem. Probably close in Q1, Q2. Buyers? Some you would think of, like Northrop Grumman (NOC) which has delivered an awesome job with the Orbital-ATK buy announced back in 2018. Some you may not, like L3Harris (LHX) which is quietly moving into space big style and as you know is a serial M&A shop.

Concluding Remarks

So in conclusion, we say, and indeed in staff accounts have actually done, and will likely continue to ... buy the dip. 2021 style. Because either the team here gets to work and gets the job done themselves, or they get Wall Street to do the job for them. Jablonsky, Porter and co don't look like losers to us. They look like winners. And winners have a habit of keeping on winning, any which way they can. So whether they stay independent, or find a bigger friend, we think there's a win in the offing here, for shareholders too.

Cestrian Capital Research, Inc - 5 May 2021.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long MAXR, IRDM, ARKX, TWLO.

Business relationship disclosure: See disclaimer text at the top of this article.

Cestrian Capital Research, Inc staff personal account(s) hold long position(s) in MAXR, IRDM, ARKX and TWLO

Comments

[Randol33]

www.cnbc.com/...
Guessing this is a reason for the big jump today?

[spitblu]

@Randol33 That, paired with the Russell Micro Index announcement (Russell Microcap Index Companies #2,001–4,000), is (in my reading) probably a strong endorsement of the company (See unchained by van halen.)

[AOC]

FWIW:

My take on $MAXR is that they intend to broaden the horizon and reach of the present day digital communication boundaries. Could be perceived as the future world beyond the current "world of cell phones".

A long time ago, Bill Gates had the intention of deploying 300 satelites across the world so that $MSFT could update computers with "patches to windows" and new versions of windows, easily. Wall Street "super-analysts" were furious and questioned how audacious could Bill Gates be with "stupidity". How could you download software into your computers without "floppy disks"? the super-analysts questioned. $MSFT stock price suffered, consequently. Lol.

Such a vision of Bill Gates is history.

$MAXR's adventure into space and their ($MAXR) current programs would be harvested in 5 to 10 years.

Those who can afford to invest on $MAXR for such a period of time, would be happy for getting in early and cheap.

JMHO.

Cheers!

Caveat Emptor! Caveat Venditor!

[Cassidy Run]

@AOC Thanks for your perspective. To me, it's all about Legion success and it's more about surveillance than digital communications.

If those birds get into orbit and operate as designed, big money will be running to Maxar...not to help us communicate, but to watch what we're doing.

[AOC]

@Cassidy Run

Some genius would eventually invent how humanity can live their lives in absolute incognito mode. Wearable devices that could distort the magnetic waves around an individual, could forestall the facial recognition, voice recognition and radio waves recognition systems. Lots of scientists are awake and at work at issues bordering on human inter-dependencies and relationships.

I am aware that magnetic waves could erase the human memory and presents health hazards to our welfare but a well modulated magnetic wave that simply distorts the wavelength of the laser beams that picks up our pictorial structures could be implemented and commercialized. Hint: satelite phones are less susceptible to prying than standard/basic phones.

For any company to devote their economic relevance on what all of humanity does, could be overwhelming. Generations after generations are just going to do whatever makes them happy ... such innate exercise of freedom cannot be constrained, ever!

Thanks and cheers!

GLTA.

[RickJensen]

@AOC
"I am aware that magnetic waves could erase the human memory and presents health hazards to our welfare"
--Ever been in an MRI??

Thx for that complete load of gibberish.

[RickJensen]

What a difference a day can make.
Down 2% to up 10.5%

[Cassidy Run]

@RickJensen In a word... volatile. Like a rocket. My boat is stacked but I hope others picked up some shares at $27.50

[Cestrian Capital Research]

@RickJensen Never a dull moment with this one

[TimeKop]

@Cassidy Run Thanks for all of the great thought leadership on this one. I always believed that the dip was a dramatic over-reaction to information that should have been (and probably was) already priced in when the stock was bouncing around in the $33 to $40 range. I.e., the dip presented a terrific buying opportunity. That theory looks more like fact with every passing day. How such a dramatic over-reaction occurred in the first class is a topic that I will leave to others with more investment experience than I have. But, I bought the dip - and am very glad that I did!

[Cassidy Run]

Maxar presenting at BOFA:

investor.maxar.com/...

[ric koehler]

Thanks for your take on Maxar Earnings, Cestrian. Gave me a few insights and kept me smiling in the face of Maxar's Price Disaster. Fortunately, similar to your actions, I sold all but my base holding prior to Earnings, and after the price crash, I increased my position. The 9% price increase on May 6, after bottoming in the $27 range May 5, may have started the upside turn.

[Cestrian Capital Research]

@ric koehler A nice set of insider buys reported yesterday too. We may all be in the gutter, but we are looking up at the stars.

[mssollas]

@Cestrian Capital Research
The CFO was "requested" to buy the shares after the call.

[Cassidy Run]

@mssollas Link?

[Zorgo]

Yeah, the market REALLY didn't like the Legion delay and the "steeper ramp up" in 2022. Plus the CEO didn't sound so sure it will happen in Q4 either. The tone...I was listening to the audio and not to conjure "Lie to Me" but he wasn't so sure himself. I did a similar thing to you (a bit worse on execution) but sold with large profit and rebought today on another account, hopefully it goes down a few bucks more on momentum before it settles. I'd like to buy some more.

[Cestrian Capital Research]

@Zorgo Nice work!

[Cassidy Run]

@Zorgo I was thinking about going the opposite way, selling 1,000 shares that I picked up at $38ish in March and April and waiting 31 days for the wash rule, thinking that then stock price would move sideways or down in that time frame. That would get me a short-term capital loss and the opportunity to buy back in to Maxar -- more shares at a better price point.

I decided to stand pat, for now. I didn't think the cc was stellar by any means but I didn't get the sense that Legion would be delayed for more than 3 months or fatally flawed. Biggs was pretty awful. But then they put their money where their mouth is yesterday and the stock price is up at/over $31. If they come out with a statement about a definitive launch date or strong conviction that Legion has been put through all its ground paces (testing)and is ready to go, I can see the stock shooting back to $40 quickly. In that case, I'd have less in the boat and less leverage. So I'm holding and definitely not selling my $7/share prints.

[Cestrian Capital Research]

@Cassidy Run $7/share, nice!

[SkiManJamie]

It's head-scratching that people didn't expect the SXM-7 or the debt extinguishment charges coming, they were effectively communicated in February and March (buying back debt at a premium is going to result in a 1-time charge, it's as certain as death and tax).

Importantly, understanding the nature of the SXM-7 charge, a reversal of the orbital receivable, is not relevant to this quarter's revenue activity. If you strip that out of revenue and punt the EV deferred revenue last year because it was just an accounting entry rather than actual business activity, revenue increased 20% y/y. And EBITDA on the same basis increased 20% y/y.

And I'm not one to hang my hat on EBITDA because of the economic cost of depreciation. However there's a whack of amortized purchased intangibles which are really accounting entries from past acquisition purchase accounting and do not represent future investment replacement. so if you take EBITDA, subtract depreciation, and add back the purchased intangibles, you get a decent economic profit. GAAP has fantastic principles but sometimes its elements miss the bigger picture.

SXM-8 is complete and should be launched soon. Let's hope whatever failed on 7 won't repeat on 8.

[Cestrian Capital Research]

@SkiManJamie We would be a lot happier if we knew more about what happened w/7 but nobody seems to want to spill on that one. EBITDA (our own defn of operating income + depr & amort + stock based comp, and unlevered pretax FCF (=EBITDA minus capex minus change in working capital) are the measures we hang our hat on generally and also here specifically. Always good work SkiMan, nice.

[SkiManJamie]

@Cestrian Capital Research ya I hear you re knowing the issues with 7 but given what we're seeing from HON and RTX, it's very possible it was a component failure that made it through testing. Unfortunately it happens.. just hopefully not with Legion and the cband sats. I'd expect whatever failed on 7 they will have been more stringent on 8.

And I'm not in any way knocking using EBITDA as a metric, it can have uses.

Thanks and ditto.

[RickJensen]

@Cestrian Capital Research
Guys I agree.
But we can't know what happened if they don't know. And I suspect they don't.
As Ski says,
you pretty much have to be dead or ignoring the company for this to be a total surprise. So, I'm writing this off on a bunch of folks that don't have a clue. Both of the issues were plain as the jelly on your nose.

Good start of recovery today.
I say we get a bleed/bump up, next Q we get a slight pop since the bad news was all in here (buy anyone should have expected it). And with Legion not torching, we are off to the races.
(Wish I had cash for yesterday)

[WOW - Wolf Of Wallstreet]

CEO and CFO bought the dip.

[Cestrian Capital Research]

@WOW - Wolf Of Wallstreet and the cfo had to buy big on account of that i don't know the bookings number gaffe lol

[WOW - Wolf Of Wallstreet]

@Cestrian Capital Research that’s right! He better.

[Cestrian Capital Research]

@WOW - Wolf Of Wallstreet fortunately he be up already

[spitblu]

CCR, thanks, I like your writing (I write too, but about totally different stuff, lol.) Here, with Maxar, the word mulligan comes to mind. They've got something coming upon in a couple weeks or so, I think. The summer ought to be OK once this tantrum passes.

[Cestrian Capital Research]

@spitblu LOL yep they can claim their mulligan for that earnings call! Thanks for the kind words. What do you write about?

[spitblu]

@Cestrian Capital Research Ignore my bad grammar. I'm published in translation, literary stuff, and in education policy (I've got a couple years of training from mathematicians.) I'm here pretty much to listen.

[hksche2000]

@author: You said, "Jablonsky, Porter and co don't look like losers to us." But handling the call is a bit part of winning (in shareholders'/my view). Think Iacocca, Steve jobs, Lisa Su for winners, Cisco's John Chambers for losers. Looks like you put MAXR mgmt among the losers, when you (correctly!) stated: "The earnings call was a lesson in how to not handle weak earnings. And so the selloff began in earnest."

MAXR is a buy <$20, given its long and arduous road ahead and no proven winners at the helm.

[Cestrian Capital Research]

@hksche2000 Even winners have bad days. TTD's CEO once cratered the stock with a badly handled call (back in 2018 from memory).

[TimeKop]

Great article! I'm buying for sure.

[Capital Gains]

I will get in under 25, the overall market wants to go down, Maxr is just one bad day down from 25

[Cestrian Capital Research]

@MOMENTUS_2020 You might get that. We have been adding through the drop. Support levels coming up next look like 27, 25, 22. www.tradingview.com/...

[Capital Gains]

@Cestrian Capital Research no rush for me, if you believe in Maxr the future is bright but in the short term, there is no need to rush in, in my opinion, the market seems to want to go down in the next few months for different reasons, sell in May and go away, If your have market experience you are familiar with that term

[Cassidy Run]

@MOMENTUS_2020 The term ( a trope, really) really doesn't interest me in this situation. I agree that Maxr has a bright future and it's simple -- Legion. I also hold many thousands of shares at an average cost (now) of just under $18. So I'm not selling because it's May.

There will be a Maxr earnings release and cc soon (3-6 months) when DJ & Co. announce a defined launch date and give strong conviction to the fleet's readiness. The stock will start moving up then and likely quite quickly.

If you have a loss, play the wash game, and get in lower, that's a possibility, but realize you might sell at your peril. I wouldn't be surprised if an announcement from Maxr before next ER.

I bought yesterday and today and have limited powder. Enough to buy more, though.

[Larry Hall]

Very lyrical write-up. My conclusion from your piece and the news blurbs and the oh-so-lively Talkbacks is that MAXR has a very nice potential upside (I added 10% to my position at 28 yesterday) but is riskier than I thought. At 4% of portfolio I am prepared to play, but not more.

[Cestrian Capital Research]

@Larry Hall What's a Talkback?

[Larry Hall]

@Cestrian Capital Research Comment thread, like this one.

[Cestrian Capital Research]

@Larry Hall aha tks.

[alidariusali]

Easily the best writing from the authors I follow on SA.
Thank you for making this enjoyable to read, in addition to the thorough and in depth analysis!

[Cestrian Capital Research]

@alidariusali Kind of you to say so. If you like our work, please consider signing up for our free newsletter, 'Cestrian Stocks Bulletin' - here: www.getrevue.co/...

[alidariusali]

@Cestrian Capital Research subscribed. Thank you!

[mtm265]

dip?

[Cestrian Capital Research]

@mtm265 dip.

[RickJensen]

28 looks to be the basement.
Wish I had some cash. What an oppo here.
Below $30 and 3 weeks, gets you Alpha.

[Teats29]

@RickJensen agreed. I'm thinking same pattern as November is likely. I had more cash at the time, but still got a small add in at $28. Time to sit back and wait.

[RickJensen]

@Teats29
Waiting is easy when you are confident in the fundamentals.
(and it's easier than worrying every 100 seconds)

[SilverDollar2014]

@RickJensen Rick-Can't you sell something to generate some quick cash? Have a Garage Sale this weekend? Maybe pick up a part-time job at the Walmart? How can you have NO cash?

[bason]

Nice write up. I am going to wait a quarter. I can not get over how bad the call was. Just does not instill a lot of confidence, so I do not see a lot of near term institutional buying to drive it higher. They are going to want to see some improvement.

[Cestrian Capital Research]

@bason It was so bad that the top guns had to buy their way to salvation!

[Chris Deahl]

Thanks for the analysis. I sold quite a few puts yesterday on no more than some hope and crossed fingers. Adding a little logical validation, will help me resume regular breathing again.

[Scott Sacknoff]

Great write-up especially “The Next Chapter”!

As a disclosure, MAXR is a holding in our SPADE Defense Index, which is the underlying benchmark licensed by Invesco for its Aerospace and Defense ETF (NYSE: PPA).

[Randol33]

Nice write up and review of current events.

However -43.22% price change since your seekingalpha.com/...

Reminds me of a movie line "What about that little guy, Oh don't worry about that little guy."

[Cestrian Capital Research]

@Randol33 Take a look at our ratings since it was $10

[Randol33]

@Cestrian Capital Research
Scott adams, "One "oh crap" can erase a thousand attaboys.

Like the movie line said, don't worry about that little guy.

[alidariusali]

@Randol33 it's a volatile stock. Get used to it.
And way to cherry pick the analyst's coverage to critique one window of time, without gathering all the facts first (like when they first started covering this).