Entering text into the input field will update the search result below

Adverum Biotechnologies: An Uncertain Path Forward

Sage Advisors profile picture
Sage Advisors


  • A patient in an Adverum Biotechnologies clinical trial experienced a serious side effect that resulted in vision loss.
  • Adverum shares fell from 10 to 4 overnight, reflecting the substantial challenges and uncertain future of the company.
  • The company is unlikely to be able to move forward without major modifications to the programs.
Eye Exam
Photo by Geber86/E+ via Getty Images

In a clinical trial, a patient given Adverum’s (NASDAQ:ADVM) lead asset, ADVM-022, experienced a serious side effect— vision loss. Whether Adverum has a viable program going forward is a subject of debate. Adverum was viewed as having a desirable product in

This article was written by

Sage Advisors profile picture
M.A. Science. I use my science background, the knowledge acquired while working for a major pharmaceutical company and access to scientists with domain specific knowledge to find the best opportunities in biotech.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Recommended For You

Comments (16)

Out of bound profile picture
Time to buy was today!!
ChasingHappiness profile picture
What's the cash value per share? Looks like they are DOA
Title is great. One has to remember though that the event happened in a trial for DME, not at all wet AMD. There are different diseases. Often and maybe wrongly both addressed mainly with anti-vegfs, esp DME. DME is a result of diabetes, by definition, which has already caused massive inflammation in the circulatory system, including the retinal part of the eye. Apart form age, and smoking making it worse, wet AMD cause is not known. Not much is known about the 022 event either... cause and effect. In comparison to rgnx, seems advm is at least guilty of being aggressive or greedy in the clinical and business sense. Looking for a once and done solution vs a 50% drop in injections which rgnx suggests is the bar. And then going for dme before amd is in the bag. Given that amd progresses, even with soc, the 022 goal of vision stability is correct, they do after all test in 80 yr olds. bcva ia a subjective score, oct is the objective.... and shows 022 works well, perhaps too well! Nothing is free of side effects, a drop a day of a steroid after a month, trending to zero on average at 18 m in the low dose amd groups sounds pretty good to me... for 90% fewer injections...
Trader8877 profile picture
@culleraa If I read you correctly, this could be a buying opportunity because the price has come down to its net asset value. Any positive development here from could push the price substantially higher? A calculated risk?
@Trader8877 well, has been a buyer for every seller! So net half the mkt says yes. A lot of criticism on the silence, but that is required of any legit co. In these cases. As once said though, if the co has to prove 022 was not the cause of this event... It's a tough bar. That said, loss of some vision in one of two eyes when already old and sick is not a huge drop in qaly
Trader8877 profile picture
I'm buying lightly because of its net asset value - may buy more if it drops further. Potential for buyout by outside parties?
MikeFromNZ profile picture
My mama always said "biotech investing is like a box of chocolate, you never know what you're gonna get". With ADVM at cash, there may be no path forward, but "this is no time for caution". Stupid is as stupid does!
rt94103 profile picture
@MikeFromNZ That’s one smart mama!

(Love me some N Zed, though it’s been 35 years since I’ve been.)
Joey Joe Joe profile picture
Really well stated piece.

I know it was not on rgnx, but I would note:

1) the fda gave a green light to RGNX P3, which is underway. The P3 will eliminate the highest dose from p2.

2) based on their preclinical work, rgnx is actually using a REALLY high dose in suprachoroidal because it avoids collateral tissue so well. The p2 doses will be as high or higher than the highest subretinal tested.

3) pigment changes happened in 83% of rgnx 3-5 cohort patients. Like advm, it happened in the highest dose cohort. So it’s a question of degree. However, inflammation and pigment changes are obviously a different beast.

My prediction is that suprachoroidal will beat everything.
Sage Advisors profile picture
@Technology Optimist Based on the preclinical data, I am in agreement that the suprachoroidal RGX-314 may be the winner. RGNX will have 6 month efficacy data Q3.
Joey Joe Joe profile picture
@Sage Advisors highly recommend you listen to rgnx cc today. About 25 minutes in they give a surprisingly thorough take on advm. I was shocked that it was so detailed and frank. Normally companies just say, “we don’t want to comment on another company’s data”.
Sage Advisors profile picture
@Technology Optimist Yes, I listened to the call and they made the point well that their program is highly differentiated. The comment about the immunogenicity of the AAV that Adverum was using was concerning. If that is the case, ADVM may have the inflammation issue regardless of the dose or route of administration.

He clearly did not think there was much read through to RGNX's program.
rt94103 profile picture
Any thoughts on the Sonic Fund activist action?
Sage Advisors profile picture
@rt94103 Here is an update from the Fly. " The Sonic Fund II, L.P., which beneficially owns approximately 6.8% of the outstanding common stock of Adverum Biotechnologies, announced that proxy advisory firm Glass, Lewis & Co. has joined Institutional Shareholder Services n recommending that Adverum stockholders vote FOR the election of Sonic's three independent nominees - Jean Bennett, Jodi Cook and Herbert Hughes - for election to the company's Board of Directors at the upcoming 2021 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, which will be held on Wednesday, May 12, 2021. In reaching its conclusion, Glass Lewis noted the following: "[S]ince the recent SUSAR event, the narrative of this proxy contest has completely turned, in our view, to the point where the board's case against the Dissident now appears to be sorely lacking in credibility, while the Dissident's arguments (particularly that the Company should direct greater attention towards resolving the safety issues of ADVM-022) seemingly carry a great deal of prescience."
Trader8877 profile picture
@Sage Advisors That could be a piece of positive development. Time to buy if it goes through - more accountability from management.
Joey Joe Joe profile picture
@Trader8877 how could it be a chance to buy? It’s too late to take a different approach. They gambled and lost.
Disagree with this article? Submit your own. To report a factual error in this article, . Your feedback matters to us!

About ADVM

SymbolLast Price% Chg
Market Cap
Yield (TTM)
Rev Growth (YoY)
Short Interest
Prev. Close
Compare to Peers

More on ADVM

Related Stocks

SymbolLast Price% Chg
To ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.
Is this happening to you frequently? Please report it on our feedback forum.
If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh.