As the cyclical upswing takes hold, emerging markets are likely to benefit from the recovery. Andrew Balls, CIO Global Fixed Income, explains PIMCO's view.
Transcript
Looking at the growth trajectories for emerging markets and comparing that with the developed world, emerging markets are a key beneficiaries of the cyclical upswing we're seeing, that's important for export markets, for commodity sectors. And in terms of the domestic sectors, the domestic services sectors where we see a growth driver as lockdowns are eased. Tourism, air travel, those kind of sectors, which can be quite important to EM, is something where the recovery will be, you know, late this year or into 2022.
By region, Asia, leading in terms of the emerging market recovery, followed by Europe, followed by Latin America.
When it comes to external debt, you get about five and a quarter percent yield, give or take, for the hard currency EM index - that looks quite attractive. We don't see in the near term at least, near term, a lot of default risk there. So, relatively attractive yield. And then of course, with EM it's always country by country.
So, South Africa would be one example. Peru is another favored by the EM team in terms of local debt exposure.
The top takeaways for investors - we've emphasized in our cyclical outlook the importance of active management, the importance of portfolio flexibility and the importance of being patient.
Emerging markets, in terms of asset allocation, emerging markets, local external debt remains attractive as part of overall asset allocation strategies.
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