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The Turnaround At Huttig Has Finally Arrived

Jeremy Blum profile picture
Jeremy Blum


  • Huttig Building Products is one of the few housing stocks still trading at depressed levels.
  • Strategic actions started in 2016 took a while. They were starting to take hold in 2019 and were temporarily derailed by Covid.
  • Huttig now enjoys a strong housing tailwind and just had its best first quarter ever as a publicly traded company.
  • It is also benefitting from improved sourcing, efficiencies, higher value-added products, and lower debt.

Young male construction worker wearing a protective face mask
Photo by Juanmonino/E+ via Getty Images

This article was amended on 5/6/2021 to include additional clarifying commentary.

I specialize in turnarounds and the majority of my recent articles have been about them. The problem with turnarounds is I usually can only

This article was written by

Jeremy Blum profile picture
Tipranks.com shows my articles have averaged over 40% over a one year period.  I was the Credit Manager for a mid-sized publicly traded bank and retired early in 2013. Despite never working in the industry, I took and passed the CFA Level 1 exam.  I usually only write about stocks that are my best ideas and I have a position in.  I traditionally have invested in and written about small and micro cap deep value stocks. As an investor you can get an edge in researching and talking to management of small and micro cap companies that have little or no analyst coverage. About 50-75% of my portfolio are deep value stocks, primarily microcaps. That is historically where I have had the best returns.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long HBP. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Comments (164)

Jeremy Blum profile picture
@Courage & Conviction Investing and @Dynamic_Value_Investor Thanks. I predicted $10-11 when I wrote the article last May. Not often I get a prediction exact like that. Congrats all!
Best2listen profile picture
@Jeremy Blum Thank you. I bought two of your suggestions. HBP and ASRT. Both are doing great. Keep'em coming.
Woodgrain agrees to acquire HBP at $10.70/share in cash. Good call by Blum when the stock was circa $5, I believe.
@Dynamic_Value_Investor 6.5x EBITDA seems a bit low for a company this size....
@TransitusCap Guessing would-be acquirers questioned the sustainability of the current EBITDA level.
@Dynamic_Value_Investor Agreed. My forecasted takeout price was $14 a share. My cost basis was $3.60 so I can't be too disappointed, but I was way off the mark in my price forecast.
Gary Kime profile picture
For those of you that are still left in the stock, what is your catalyst? Do you think that Huttig will be sold? It’s been for sale for a long time, many times, but if you think this is the outcome then I understand. Do you think that the housing industry is going to continue to boom? If so why not choose a really good stock like NVR, DHI, TOL, FBHS. If you compare 20 year charts of all these they have something in common. They move from the lower left to the upper right.

Finally, my last point, take a look at a twenty year chart of HBP and overlay a twenty year chart of BXC. Funny how they are almost identical and only show progress during the best of times. You see, these two companies have a lot in common. They are commodity oriented and can only pay for all their fixed costs and overhead during the best of times. I know you think HBP is cheap, but so is BXC. The market thinks they can only make money during boom times, and so do I.

Earnings should still be decent this quarter, maybe the guys from Prime Source are closer to making Huttig Grip work, if so, I understand your catalyst.

Make sure you understand your thesis because being a bag holder is no fun. Congratulations on a good trade!
Micro_Cap_Value profile picture
@Gary Kime thanks for acknowledging how poorly timed your earlier and extensive negative commentary was on HBP.
Jeremy Blum profile picture
Professional Builders Supply sells supplies to residential builders. As of last week, Professional Builders had 12 Carolinas locations with 685 employees and revenue over $700 million this year. The company disclosed its sale to Buffalo Grove, Ill.-based US LBM, the nation’s largest privately held building supply company with more than $3 billion in revenue. US LBM is controlled by Bain Capital.
Micro_Cap_Value profile picture
@Jeremy Blum Its a very active M&A market, White Cap acquired Ram Tool Construction supply last week. Terms weren't disclosed, but I will let you know if I get some more detail on valuation.
Potential Acquiror's Shares Move Signficantly Higher

Since the end of Oct, BLDR's stock has appreciated 38%, pushing its EV/NTM EBITDA multiple from 7.3x to 8.2x in the process. In my view, BLDR is one of the likely acquirors of HBP. BLDR's stock is breaking out today, up a little over 9% on the release of bullish out-year revenue/EBITDA growth metrics as well as FCF projections (see slides below).

BLDR Investor Day Slides:

BLDR Wants to Deploy $2 Billion on M&A by 2025

There are a lot of M&A slides in the deck. Most important, please turn to slide 83. BLDR plans to deploy $2 bn for M&A between 2021 and 2025, or roughly $500 mm/year. At $12/share, HBP's EV would total roughly $400 mm, which would value HBP at 8.4x TTM EBITDA excluding synergies.

On slide 80, BLDR shows (2021 to 2025) M&A adding $2.9 bn in revenue (midpoint of range), which implies the company plans to pay 0.69 revenue for its acquisitions ($2.0 bn in acquisition capital divided by $2.9 bn in related revenue). If HBP traded at 0.69x TTM revenue, it's EV would total $615 mm. I suspect HBP merits a lower revenue multiple than 0.69x, given roughly 20% of its business is direct delivery, which I suspect would be discounted by a would-be buyer.
Gary Kime profile picture
@Dynamic_Value_Investor why would you think BLDR would buy HBP? Do you realize that Huttig is a two stepper and BLDR is a one stepper? These two businesses don’t blend well. Do you realize many years ago that HBP also owned one steppers and they sold or shut all of them down. Strategically this makes little sense, IMHO.
@Gary Kime Boise Cascade seems like a much more realistic acquirer than BLDR.
Micro_Cap_Value profile picture
@Dynamic_Value_Investor Hoping they remain independent, as the shares are headed to $15 based solely on earnings. Although some people here didn’t seem to think the stock was worth $4 a few months ago, lol.
Just-completed conf call -- mgt indicated that YTD GM levels are sustainable going forward, which is great news and alleviates my concerns around non-sustainable pricing gains that might have been booked this year (the vast majority of their business is on LIFO, so such gains are moderated somewhat vs. using FIFO). If a potential strategic buyer shares their view on go-forward GMs, the take-out price, if it happens, should be nicely higher.
I just searched the last three HBP transcripts for the term "gross margin." Today's comments were much more forward-looking and calculated, in my view. I believe management wanted to convey, in a very clear fashion, the sustainably of the gains to investors and would-be acquirors alike.
Micro_Cap_Value profile picture
@Dynamic_Value_Investor Vrabely was pretty adamant about GMs being sustainable. Market valuations of the lgr comps have been rising, so gives them more room to pay up if it were to be a stock deal. I'm estimating $48-50M adj. ebitda (pre merger savings), so it seem pretty easy to get to a takeout price in low teens. Otherwise, I have seen this stock trade in the teens in a less profitable, less robust business environment, so we may get there regardless.
@Micro_Cap_Value Before today, I thought $9/share to $10/share. But if potential acquirors agree with his assessment of the GMs going forward, I suspect you're right -- around $12 to $13/share. BTW, I think he was trying to contrast HBP's YTD EBITDA with BLDR's (see BLDR's slides from today and last qtr-- BLDR shows a much lower "base" EBITDA number).
Jeremy Blum profile picture
I get $0.57 EPS this quarter excluding two positive non-recurring items. That's better than last quarter. Someone tell me again why this is trading below $10???
@Jeremy Blum Given the company is being shopped, all that matters now is the EV/EBITDA metric. And with cost synergies, it's cheap on that basis, too.
Alex Hardman profile picture
@Jeremy Blum They don't have a crypto strategy, hahaha......but ya, in all seriousness, its insane its not over $10.
Micro_Cap_Value profile picture
@Jeremy Blum $0.57 looks right — their focus on higher margin fasteners is beginning to pay off. As (private market) value increases, it is ultimately expressed either thru share price or acquisition price.
Micro_Cap_Value profile picture
HBP just scheduled 3Q earnings release for after close on Nov. 3rd... a week later than normal and the first time it has ever been pushed back to November. Nov. 3rd.
@Micro_Cap_Value Any idea/guess why the late release?
@Micro_Cap_Value I'm wondering if they want to make an announcement on the CC, and just want the extra week to organize things.
Alex Hardman profile picture
@Micro_Cap_Value I don't think there is a 35 day reporting rule for this size company. My understanding the market cap dictates how quickly they must report with smaller companies allowed more time. Another company I follow that is bigger than HBP usually reports 45 days out. The most likely reason for HBP reporting a week later is like they like reporting on Wednesdays and 5 weeks out. And it just happens this year the 5th week is a November or two weeks prior to the 45th day.
I'd previously speculated that cost synergies for a strategic HBP buyer might total close to $11 mm based on:

* Elimination of C-suite cash comp $1.4 mm
* Elimination of board cash comp $0.4 mm
* Partial elimination of audit fee: $0.2 mm
* Purchasing/disti network synergies: $8.6 mm (1% of TTM HBP revenue)

That number may be low. Here are the estimated cost synergies for various building supplies disti deals (estimated at time of deal announcement or closing):

BECN acqs Allied (2017): $110 mm cost syn, or 4.3% of acq'd rev
GMS acqs WSB (2018): $10 mm cost syn, or 2.2% of acq'd rev
BLDR acqs BMC (2020): $140 mm cost syn, or 3.7% of acq'd rev

Avg cost syn as percent of rev: 3.4%

HBP TTM rev: $859 mm

Using the above synergy estimates as a guide, it appears that a strategic HBP buyer could easily achieve at least $12.9 mm in cost synergies (1.5% or TTM HBP rev), if not more.
Alex Hardman profile picture
@Dynamic_Value_Investor Before they started doing the restructuring over the last couple of years, even HBP tended to improve margins year over year. So HBP could probably get those improvements without being acquired. It was several years in a row that gross margins improved and I am pretty sure it flowed down to the bottom line, too. One of the reasons I rather not see HBP acquired, since I would assume the same thing will happen again now that they are done making large investments into the business. They should be improving operating efficiencies going forward.
@Alex Hardman I don't see much in the way of GM improvement prior to the first half of this year (21.9% in 1H21 vs. 20.2% in 1H20).

Year GM Rev
2020: 20.1% $792 mm
2019: 20.0% $812 mm
2018: 19.8% $840 mm
2017: 20.7% $753 mm
2016: 21.2% $714 mm
2015: 20.2% $660 mm

In my view, it's important to tease out how much of 1H21 margin expansion came from ephemeral pricing gains, especially from the "wood products" division vs. more permanent gains from better mix, restructuring and the closure of two underperforming sites. I'd suggest looking at slide 5 from BLDR's 2Q21 earnings report, which extracts lumber-related gains from their projected 2021 EBITDA results. Keep in mind that BLDR's lumber/wood products mix is much higher than HBP's. Also, BLDR accounts for inventory under the weighted average cost method (approximates to FIFO in their case), whereas HBP utilizes LIFO for about 90% of revenue and the average cost method for the balance of sales. If HBP's wood products segment is under LIFO, declines in lumber pricing since the spring (peaked in May and bottomed out in August) should be much less impactful than at BLDR (in fact, HBP could start to recognize LIFO income). Also, direct sales at HBP were 22.9% of revenue in 1H21 vs. 20.0% in 1H20, which most likely weighed on 1H21 GMs as direct sales carry a significantly lower margin than "from warehouse" sales.

Even if HBP's estimated full-year EBITDA of $42.9 mm (my estimate) is penalized at the same rate as BLDR's lumber-gains haircut on slide 5, we end up with $29.8 mm in "base" HBP 2021 EBITDA (using BLDR's terminology). Add $12.9 mm in cost synergies (see my last post on historical cost synergies for building-supplies disti acquisitions) and the number moves back to $42.7 mm. On this type of normalized EBITDA, I'd expect BLDR to pay around 8x EBITDA (less on the non-adjusted number, of course), or close to $9/share. In a prior post, I used 6x to 7x but that was on an unadjusted EBITDA number.
Alex Hardman profile picture
@Dynamic_Value_Investor No, not in the last couple of years. I was talking more pre-2016 era. Before they started the major investments that sunk the stock over the past couple of years. Coming out of the financial crisis into 2016, they had a couple good years there from what I remember.
HBP takeout analysis (assuming a strategic buyer):

1H21 EBITDA for HBP: $27.9 mm (excludes stock comp of $0.8 mm)
My conservative full-year 2021 EBITDA: $42.9 mm (excludes stock comp)

Annual cost synergies to a strategic buyer:
* Elimination of C-suite cash comp $1.4 mm
* Elimination of board cash comp $0.4 mm
* Partial elimination of audit fee: $0.2 mm
* Purchasing/disti network synergies: $8.6 mm (1% of TTM HBP revenue)

Total cost synergies: $10.6 mm

Estimated pro forma 2021 EBITDA with synergies: $53.5 mm

Valuation comps in the building supplies disti space (EV/NTM EBITDA):
BLDR 7.4x
BECN 8.8x
GMS 7.0x

Disclosed EV/EBITDA multiples of transactions (pre-synergies) over the past five years:
August 2017 BECN buys Allied for 14.0x
April 2018 GMS buys WSB for 9.2x
Jan 2021 BLDR buys BMC for 10.4x

Projected takeout price for HBP:

To be conservative, I'm going to assume HBP does not command a EV/EBTIDA multiple comparable to any of the above transactions, given HBP's 2020 and 2019 EBITDA was only $19 mm and $3 mm, respectively, meaning this year's EBITDA may be viewed as inflated by a potential acquirer.

At a minimum, HBP should command 6x estimated 2021 EBITDA (pro forma for cost synergies), or 7.6x pre-synergies, in my opinion.

6 x $54.5 mm = $327 mm in EV

$327 mm EV less net debt of $96.4 mm (as of 6/30/21) = $230.6 mm in equity value, or $8.4/share (34% upside from the current stock price).

Higher multiple:

7x $54.5 mm = $381.5 mm in EV

$381.5 mm EV less net debt of $96.4 mm (as of 6/30/21) = $285.1 mm in equity value, or $10.4/share (66% upside from the current stock price).

Assuming HPB's business fundamentals are still strong, I'd buy the stock at current levels. In fact, I've roughly doubled my position in the after hours last night and this am. Remember, a deal may not happen.
Analysis of Shareholder Base (as of 6/30/21):

Hauser Family AG 2.6 mm (owned most for over a decade)
Alan Weber Mgt 2.5 mm (owned most of position since 2012)
Mill Road Cap 2.3 mm (owned most since 2017)
22NW LP 2.1 mm (owned since mid 2020)
CEO Jon Vrabely 1.0 mm shares

22NW LP shows a history of activism. They have launched 5 activist campaigns against 5 different companies over time. I'd view their presence as a large HBP holder as a positive.

The CEO is highly incentivized to sell the company. In addition to his stock ownership, Vrabely will receive multiples of his base and annual bonuses under a takeout scenario. Please see 4b - "Termination During the Protected Period."

@Dynamic_Value_Investor , this was my point a few months ago and I appreciate your adding the shareholder work as well. The announcement today feels like a public denouncement of an overture. Effectively saying "we're done having these silly conversations. Make us a serious offer or we'll open the books up to others. We might be wrong, and you might walk away, but we feel pretty good about getting a better price and our earnings are due soon. We know the numbers (the potential buyer likely does also) so do you want to buy before or after we post." Maybe deal gets announced same day as earnings but Vrabely has done his job.
@PatrickM1 Yes, appreciate your calling out the new language in the employment agreement months ago.
Interesting news from the HBP Board that is propelling its stock in after-hours today:

"ST. LOUIS, Oct. 13, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Huttig Building Products, Inc. (“Huttig” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: HBP), a leading domestic distributor of millwork, building materials and wood products, today announced that its Board of Directors, consistent with its strategic review process and in consultation with its financial and legal advisors, has initiated a process to evaluate potential strategic alternatives to maximize shareholder value. "
Jeremy Blum profile picture
@davis65 The stock price is so ridiculously low versus earnings that looks like they decided they will get it much higher one way or another. That's the good thing about owning an undervalued stock.
Alex Hardman profile picture
@Jeremy Blum Hopefully they don't comeback with taking the company private at $6.50 or something ridiculously low price, hahaha.
Jeremy Blum profile picture
@Alex Hardman there is no 10%+ shareholder who can control things to their benefit, which happens sometimes. There was a lowball offer from one of their larger shareholders (Mill Road) for HBP last year. It was for $2.75 when the stock was at $2.39. It quickly got rejected.

At DIIBF which I also own, they tried to take it private last year for a low offer that got rejected. They just announced the sale of less than half of the company for way more than that offer for all of it.
bazooooka profile picture
Maybe can get some on nice sale next week.
Any news for the drop today?
Alex Hardman profile picture
@Rick77 With options expiring today, it could be dealers selling off their delta hedges. Overall the stock trades pretty thin, so doesn't take much to get a drop.....just a small holder deciding he wants out for whatever reason. I wouldn't read much into it.
@Jeremy Blum Any idea what's hapening here? Based on Q2 and your projections, they could do 1.5$ in EPS and this is going down every day. Who's selling? I see there's no volume (56 k shares so far today), but still can't figure it out.
Alex Hardman profile picture
@mil6 Classic small cap behavior, outside news events buyers just evaporate and anyone who takes profits will just tank the stock. I would guess with lumber prices and homebuilder sentiment falling in the past month is weighing on the name, too.
Jeremy Blum profile picture
@mil6 I don't see anything that has changed. The homebuilders stocks are mostly up over the past month. The lower lumber prices should benefit HBP in the short term, hurt a little longer term. They are not hedging lumber prices so the drop in price benefits them.
@Jeremy Blum @Alex Hardman Thank you both.
I'm accumulating a position, but it's hard to believe that the stock is going down with these results. Hopefully we're not missing something.
abdulmoiz1254 profile picture
you SOAB I'm in
(saying it with love)
Some great comments here. The Q2 quarter revenue benefited from the surge in lumber prices, which will reverse in the 2nd H. Not sure how much GM may be impacted by that, but if they can manage through this and continue to maintain something in the low 20s that will be a solid showing. Any comments on the GM and pretax margin outlook would be welcome. Agree that Q3 will be materially higher than Q4. Also note that they pay very low tax rate.
Micro_Cap_Value profile picture
@abh3vt The impact of lumber prices was not as material in 2Q as some think, and certainly much less so than other players in the building trades that primarily sell commodity lumber. If you look back at the Huttig-grip program, it's purpose from the start was to move the company into higher margin specialty fasteners and away from commodity products. Even preceding the HG program, Huttig had been getting out of commodity wood products, which is why moldings was down to just 10% of sales in the past quarter. The benefits from Huttig-grip are beginning to take hold and provide the margin improvement the company had been hoping for. Read last quarter's conf. call carefully and you'll see what I mean -- they felt HG volumes were on the cusp of hitting b/e and beginning to make a serious contribution. This quarter was evidence of that. The surprise in the next few quarters, is that even with lower lumber prices, their margin will continue to remain firm or improve. Eventually investors will figure out that Huttig is not a commodity distributor.
bazooooka profile picture
Hit seven bucks in the AH; might take out the old highs from four years back if this keep chugging beyond that your talking decades old highs.
Alex Hardman profile picture
@bazooooka Made 84 cents in the first half of the year......it should probably be trading north of $10 at this point. And two quarters in a row, so last quarter wasn't a fluke.
Jeremy Blum profile picture
@Alex Hardman yeah, I agree should be over $10. I wrote an article recently about the housing industry. While I didn’t think the 60% backlog increase is sustainable, the industry should be able to at least maintain the current level of homes.

Interesting that the gross margin only increased a little. Unlike other industries that have popping earnings, HBP did it without price increases much above cost increases. Wondering if the big lumber price drop will help the current quarter.

They appear to be held back by some shortages.

The current quarter should be even better as it is the seasonally strongest and the industry backlog has a big revenue jump baked in.
Micro_Cap_Value profile picture
@Jeremy Blum it’s actually a pretty impressive increase in gross margin for a distributor. Top line growth was also well ahead of my expectations. Overall their performance this quarter and outlook over the next several quarters is far superior to what it was in 2008 when the stock was at $12. Consequently I continue to believe this will be a mid teens stock in the near term.
On 5/7, CEO sells 103,000 shares in mid 5's. Still owns over 1,000,000 shares after the sale. On 5/10, he renegotiates his employment contract with some interesting language regarding accelerated payouts for options/RSU etc, not to mention a nice little raise in base. I'd encourage everyone to read the new employment contract and draw your own conclusions but my guess is he's not CEO long into 2022 and company is likely acquired. Board has made sure he'll be paid handsomely for his years of service. Just my .02.
Micro_Cap_Value profile picture
@PatrickM1 Good catch Pat, the run at the company by Mill Road (albeit at a laughable price) may have gotten a few gears turning ;)
@PatrickM1 why would he sell shares near 5$ if he would expect a takeover?
Micro_Cap_Value profile picture
@mendo pay taxes on option exercise is usually the case... guys like this don't have $100k's sitting around in checking account. plenty of other reasons... tuition bills, new swimming pool, vacation. There's an old adage... "insiders buy for only one reason, but sell for many."
I have a question. Where do you find these small cap stocks? Is there a certain screener you use?
Gary Kime profile picture
This stock hasn’t made money in twenty years. We are at or very near a peak in housing starts with inflation raging (buffetts words). The CEO who knows this company better than anyone is selling nearly $1,000,000 worth of stock. Trust me that is real money for Jon. He was a branch manager for one of their West coast operations before becoming President.

You can believe someone pumping this stock and has done so for many years. Do yourself a favor and reread previous Huttig comments in articles hear on SA. These are not good trends. If your getting in this stock, it’s fine for a trade before this market pops. Don’t overstay your welcome!

I’m really confident that Huttig hasn’t turned over a new leaf and become a dominant distributor. They might be doing better in decking products from the previous quarter, but Huttig lives and dies by their performance in exterior doors and building products (Huttig Grip). Good luck! There are too many good companies to invest in to rely on HBP! I’ll pass!
Micro_Cap_Value profile picture
@Gary Kime Gary, I have a few questions for you, appreciate candid answers: 1) how much money have you made (or lost) in HBP over the years, be honest, and 2) if you are short the stock, at what price level did you short it? If you are not short the stock, why are you making every effort to try to discredit the company's turnaround, seems like quite an effort to 'protect' the rest of us? 3) Are you currently or were you previously financially involved or an employee of a competitor to Huttig, and if so, do you not find this to present a bias which you should be disclosing in your comments?
Gary Kime profile picture
@Micro_Cap_Value I have never been short HBP. I’ve rarely invested in HBP so it’s minimal what I’ve made. My bio states that I was an executive at TT. Huttig was our largest account. After that I owned Sealrite. We were Ben Built’s largest competitor. Ben Built was a great purchase and a great competitor. We also competed against Huttig Columbus. Huttig would eventually shut that facility down. I sold Seal-Rite to Palmer Donavin. At the time we did $30,000,000 in Therma Tru doors. See I know what I’m talking about. Huttig should have learned from their acquisition of Ben Built but they have failed to execute. Ben Built was the second best TT distributor in the nation.

When Jeremy wrote the article I could tell he wasn’t familiar with the industry. I think he’s trying to do the right thing and stumbled on HBP.

It looks like it should be a gem. However compare what HBP has done to Builders first source. They have failed to execute for twenty years.

Many people on SA tend to follow authors who give poor advise or people making comments for that matter.

I think it’s appropriate to comment with facts. If you don’t like my comments dispute them. Everything I’ve said is factual!

I don’t need to take conversations off line!

I hope that Jeremy is right! I will be surprised if that’s the case, but I don’t want some innocent person to only get half the story!

Oh! And by the way, if you think someone on SA can move the market, that says a little something about you! I’m not worried about you! I’m just defending those people who think you are an authority on HBP!

In no way does this reflect on Jeremy! He’s done a lot of good writing and I think he stumbled on to something at the wrong time. He’s got good intentions!
Michael Loftis profile picture
@Gary Kime Thoughts on Builders First Source? Who do you like in the distribution space? Genuinely interested. Thanks.
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