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Vista Outdoor, Inc. (VSTO) CEO Chris Metz on Q1 2021 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

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Vista Outdoor, Inc. (NYSE:VSTO) Q1 2021 Earnings Conference Call May 6, 2021 9:00 AM ET

Company Participants

Kelly Reisdorf - Vice President, Chief Communications and Investor Relations Officer

Chris Metz - Chief Executive Officer

Ric Kern - President, Bell and Giro

Sudhanshu Priyadarshi - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Conference Call Participants

Dan - Cowen & Co

Scott Stember - CL King

James Hardiman - Wedbush Securities

Matt Koranda - ROTH Capital

Eric Wold - B. Riley Securities

Ryan Sundby - William Blair

Mark Smith - Lake Street Capital Markets


Good day and welcome to the Vista Outdoor Inc. Fourth Quarter and Full Fiscal Year 2021 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded.

At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Kelly Reisdorf. Please go ahead ma'am.

Kelly Reisdorf

Good morning and thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2021 earnings call. With me this morning is Chris Metz, Vista Outdoor's Chief Executive Officer; Sudhanshu Priyadarshi, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Ric Kern, President of our Bell Giro business unit.

Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that during today's call, we will be making several forward-looking statements and we make these statements under the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. These forward-looking statements reflect our best estimates and assumptions based on our understanding of information known to us today.

These forward-looking statements are subject to the risks and uncertainties that face Vista Outdoor and the industries in which we operate. We encourage you to review today's press release and Vista Outdoor's SEC filings for more information on these risk factors and uncertainties. Please also note that we have posted presentation materials on our website at vistaoutdoor.com, which supplement our comments this

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Comments (5)

Dirty Bubble profile picture
FWD EPS estimates of 3.00 right now are a joke to be completely honest. A brief history of their earnings shows the past 3 quarters of expectation to be ~.60 EPS and every time they deliver over 1.00.

Now they just straight up raised the .60 Wall Street expectation to .80-.90... this is beyond substantial and just based on their recent history it's probably conservative to think they don't cruise past 1.00 EPS. I just don't see why they'd give out a bullish signal like that if they weren't confident they'd absolutely crush it. 4.50 adjusted EPS for the year seems highly attainable. Outdoor activity profits will only get better as we enter warmer months, and the ammunition shortage and pricing doesn't seem to be changing any time soon.

At the current prices with my own valuation I get a forward PE of around 7.5-8.
Barry Posternak profile picture
@Dirty Bubble tax rate is going from 2% in year just ended to low 20's in current FY, which will cost about $1 per share, which bringing down consensus, but still consensus appears to account for no growth in operating earnings
@Dirty Bubble This has to be the safest hold in my portfolio on valuation. I'm not sure I've ever had a stock run like this for a year and have a PE this low with even conservative estimates. It will get more attention and fly eventually IMO. It's a dirty gun stock, (not really), so that will hold it back some.
Barry Posternak profile picture
main concern on call seems to be the sequential decline in gross margin % implied in guidance. but its only about 100 basis points per my estimate, and Vista said they're having no problem passing along cost increases. This is just a timing difference. And they have a recent history of blowing past guidance anyway. Record and growing backlog and low channel inventories with no sign of slowdown. Expect stock will move higher from here.
@Barry Posternak It wasn't hard to see this coming last year and I can't imagine how they don't continue to excel at least a few more quarters. Growing like a good tech company right now.
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