Politics And The Markets 8/01/21
Aug. 01, 2021 12:00 AM ET545 Comments
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Comments (545)
Prepare yourself. Our current boom is a result of pent-up pandemic demand and the US Treasury printing presses. The last time Treasury rates were near zero while nominal growth and inflation boomed was during World War II and the late 1940s. That was the last time double-digit money growth was financing deficits as big as those today. Low rates are being held down by quantitative easing just as they were back then. This has broken the link between nominal interest rates and inflation, allowing record-low real rates to continue fueling excessive demand growth.I know it doesn't appear to be so but the cyclical areas of the economy are now starting to cool after the stimulus push, and now we are left with downward economic futures. I guess the infrastructure stimulus could change this if passed. Short-term thinking will result will be a weaker trend rate of real GDP per capita. I am prepared for the economy to start to soften in Q3 and Q4, which will bring a sustained change in market leadership.
@Namron Damron All else equal, without COVID, would US 10yr real yields be negative 1.17% ... and, without that rate underpinning, would US equity markets be trading on multiples never sustained outside of the 1990s tech bubble?
@PIRockford I can't know the unknowable. c19 changed things. The market is overvalued in my view.
We got some new COVID-19 rules Thursday. They were different than the rules we got the day before that, and I assume they're different than the rules we'll get tomorrow.1. Absolutely do not wear a mask2. You must, must, must wear a mask or you're killing Grandma3. Don't leave the house or you're killing Grandma4. If you can't avoid leaving the house, stay at least six feet away from any other human being you see or you're killing Grandma5. Wash your hands 20 times a day6. Do not touch your face or anything else, ever7. Get vaccinated so you don't have to wear a mask8. You have to wear a mask even if you're vaccinated9. When the above rules change, and then change back, and then change back again, shut up about it or you're a stupid MAGA-head10. Don't forget to vote Democrat!
A group of 10 Republican senators is backing a bill that would require an audit of the decision-making and public health messaging by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).The Senate bill, titled 'Restore Public Health Institution Trust Act of 2021', would require the Government Accountability Office (GAO) to assess the CDC's public health messaging and decision making and prepare a report on the matter.The bill requires the report to include a review of the data the CDC used to make its recommendations and whether the agency's "inconsistent messaging" had an impact on the public's trust and willingness to take the COVID-10 vaccine."These guidelines, like most of the Biden Administration's actions these days, make little sense and seem without scientific direction," Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) said in a statement, referring to the CDC recent reversal of masking guidance for fully vaccinated people."Americans have spent the last year and a half making tremendous sacrifices to halt the virus's spread, but they are confused and have lost trust in our institutions. The mixed messaging could also degrade trust in the efficacy of vaccines."The bill would also require the GAO to determine whether outside entities, including teachers' unions, were in a position to impact the CDC's guidance."Over the past year and a half, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued conflicting health guidance, at times only weeks apart, and at times without supporting clinical data," Sen. Cythia Lummis (R-Wyo.) said in a statement."Their actions have unnecessarily divided our country, and fueled partisan conflict. The job of the CDC is to help control and prevent disease, not play politics. It's time for oversight and reform."
@PIRockford It sounds like those ten Republicans want to punish the CDC for contradicting their party's political agenda.
@PIRockford " to assess the CDC's public health messaging"Propaganda is an accurate word for the CDC's messaging.Advertising for the products of the largest pharma corps like Pfizer also fits.
Unvaccinated Texas mom and dad on ventilators beg their 4 kids to get COVID shots It’s likely too late for Lydia Rodriguez to get vaccinated - she and her husband, Lawrence, are breathing with the help of machines in a Texas intensive care unit - but their four children, she hopes, will get the shots.“One of the last things she said before being intubated was to make sure her kids get vaccinated,” Rodriguez’ cousin Dottie Jones said in a Facebook post.“We’ve been told they are very, very, very, very sick is what the doctor told us,” Jones told the TV station. “And if they do survive, it’s going to be a long, long road.”But this all could have been avoided, Jones said.“My 42 yo cousin didn’t believe in the vaccine. Now she and her husband are in the ICU on vents fighting for their lives with this delta variant while their 4 children are at home,” Jones said on Facebook.As contagious as chicken pox, the delta variant is rapidly spreading across the United States, spurring a significant increase in cases in recent weeks, McClatchy News reported. In late July, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the delta variant accounted for 83 percent of those cases.While there are breakthrough cases, cases of vaccinated people catching coronavirus, these are rare, and experts say the COVID vaccines remain highly effective, McClatchy reported.“I just am tired of the anti-vax rhetoric that is causing so many, like my cousin and her family, to not get vaccinated,” Jones told KTRK.www.miamiherald.com/...Did you see that last sentence?
@C. King Alpha Flunkie I missed in your story where someone tried to tell them about treatment with Ivermection which doctors has had up to 100% success.Why do you want to hide that - withhold treatment, and let people die?Sorry, now you can't tell me that if you get the vaccine you won't need ivermectin, because people who get the vaccine like Mitch and many others are getting covid and are dying."Massachusetts breakthrough coronavirus cases: 71 fully vaccinated people have died, 268 hospitalizations"
Massachusetts breakthrough coronavirus cases: 71 fully vaccinated people have died, 268 hospitalizationsA ton of info for people who do not have there head buried in the sand of CDC propaganda: faculty.utrgv.edu/...
Massachusetts breakthrough coronavirus cases: 71 fully vaccinated people have died, 268 hospitalizationsA ton of info for people who do not have there head buried in the sand of CDC propaganda: faculty.utrgv.edu/...
@John Wilson "Why do you want to hide that - withhold treatment, and let people die?"I'm not hiding anything, John. I pasted an excerpt from an article. I don't think the author of the article is hiding anything, either; he's just filing a report. It's not up to him to editorialize; he is a reporter, not the op-ed page editor.
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