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Sentiment Speaks: We Will See 4600 In 2021


  • Many fallacies are continually being propagated by the media about Covid's affect upon the market, as well as the Fed's impact upon the same.
  • The market is still "destined" to rally to 4600SPX in 2021.
  • The path to 4600SPX will likely be decided in the coming week.
  • This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard. Learn More »

2021 will be a good year
Warchi/iStock via Getty Images

As we came into 2021, I outlined to those willing to listen that I expected at least a 20% continuation rally in the SPX, and I would prefer for us to strike at least the 4600SPX region this


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This article was written by

Avi Gilburt profile picture

Avi Gilburt, CPA., is an accountant and lawyer by training and the founder of Elliot Wave Trader, where along with his team of analysts, he specializes in identifying the major turning points and market trends so you can invest more confidently while applying appropriate risk management.

Avi is the leader of the investing group The Market Pinball Wizard where they help members gain a more real-time understanding of where the market is likely heading. Features of the group include: daily S&P 500 directional analysis, intraweek metals analysis, weekly expanded analysis on the S&P 500, metals, USO, and USD, weekly live webinars where we walk you through the charts we are tracking, and community chat with direct access to Avi and his team of analysts to ask questions. Learn More.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Comments (163)

This is quite an unusual situation we are in with hundreds of cargo ships waiting to unload at an old Port and shortage of truck drivers to move the cargo on it's way, and major legislation on hold along with thousands crossing our borders, and fuel problems just to mention a few things, what could be better?
Avi Gilburt profile picture

And, yet, the market is at the highs. Listen to Bill Murray:

So at 4458 or so are you more confident yet of the more direct path to 4600? Or still waiting to see what happens, before deciding to call a higher probability pullback first?
Directly to 4600SPX it is then!?
daltonb profile picture
4600 by end September ........ I think sooooo!
4447 here, 153 points away, about 3.5% higher... nasdaq seems tired may slow the ascent here for a bit
its going to 6000. not 4500.
Michael Clark profile picture
@karondongotbanned Next target is 7909.
Avi Gilburt profile picture
@Michael Clark

For those that want realistic targets . . the next target is 4400/4600 . . followed by a bigger pullback . . then to 5000 . . followed by an even bigger pullback. So, PLEASE do not expect 7900 anytime soon, if ever.
Michael Clark profile picture

Target Gain
7,909.51 -- RESISTANCE
4,382 <——SUPPORT
3,286.50 3024.3
kepeneter profile picture
@Michael Clark Thanks so much for providing TA. I needed that for support of my fundamental view. $SPY
@Michael Clark
If 4382 is support, how do we get down to 2388.2? Is 2388 the next bottom after the 11459 peak? What is your best guess as to when we hit 11459?
Michael Clark profile picture
@randyCA The levels below are levels that have already been TAKEN. They do provide support if the index tanks. But they have already been resistance levels that are now support levels.
If there is one real concern that everyone should have and it will be extremely interesting how it plays out, it is the fact that we are racing towards $20 Trillion+ worth of bonds that are 'earning' a negative return of interest, both in real and nominal terms. In my view, this must have sooner or later serious economic and financial consequences. What they will be is well beyond my pay grade to determine. I will speculate one thought, it may not be something we really want.
$1 trillion. Then $3.5 trillion. Lower rates.

We are in an environment that has never had this sort of stimulus before. There is so much money out there that all prices are now inflating.

This is absolute lunacy, but it’s all going to flow into equities because the stock market is the mechanism that converts government debt into wealth for the wealthy.

Rich people get richer here. Market goes higher for years (with minor corrections to BTFD).
@kkvakk bubbles pop. I think ours pops in 2024 early 2025. Then we may also experience a currency event. The article mentioned 1929, agree completely. I’ve missed all the bubble pop in my lifetime by looking at the yield curve and it inverting. Not sure if that indicator will work this time.

Until 2024, party on.
kkvakk profile picture
@AbolishtheFed this guy here on SA is good at picking multibagging stocks;
kkvakk profile picture
Don't be alarmed...be very, very frightened! The market will fall to 3400 from here. Buy gold, buy NEM.

The economic data show inflation running hot and unemployment at low numbers. The Federal Reserve, Bank of England and the European Central Bank (ECB) have the same playbooks of encouraging growth for a longer time to ensure that the benefits of a tighter labor market reach people who have been hardest hit. The objectives are worthy but we’re past time for stimulus to be tapered off. “Irrational exuberance in the stock market", we’ve seen this movie before, in fact we’ve seen it too many times.
@kkvakk 6000 before 3400. Then 2200.
kkvakk profile picture
@AbolishtheFed Careful, SP500 MarketCap is 200% of GDP, in 1999 it was 150%... If inflation is 5-10% a year, why would you be happy with a <4% earnings yield on your stocks?
@kkvakk so you suggest cash? Or bonds? There is nowhere else to put the amount of money being created. It has to go somewhere. Besides, as long as the economy is being stimulated, it is difficult for a crash to occur.

When the rates rise, and the printing slows below a critical number, then yes, a very ugly correction will occur.

I’ve been investing since 1982, the one thing I’ve noticed is when the government prints this recklessly, bull markets happen, and when they slow, it’s ugly.

We are in a stimulus mode beyond 2009, 2001, etc. what biden is doing is crazy. My worry is that he has a plan with a goal, because stupidity is easy to figure out, but a paradigm shift isn’t.

That paradigm shift may be the ‘Global Reset’, that is my fear.
Davsha profile picture
Good Morning, Highly respect you & your work. I will try to remember the S&P 4600 call after a deeper correction ( if ). For now, trying to squeeze out the last upside, with a wide open downside is just not worth it for my piece of mind. I still note, what I see as speculative excess. Thanks again
richjoy403 profile picture
Thanks Avi -- My respect for your probabilistic market movements continues to increase.

when the market is too bullish.. you step back and stay at least 50% in cash.
Thanks, just too pumped, sentiment is too bullish, whatever, tough market to short, and to buy as well, watching BAC and many other bellwethers continue weakness for 2 months now
Jake Thomas 50 profile picture
Avi, Unlearning old investing strategies, ignoring financial media stories/rationale for market moves, and disregarding long-held economic theories about the Fed and inflation are hard for some people. It was for me. I feel like when it comes to this market, much of what I learned in business school does not apply to today’s market. It’s never too late in life to clean the windows and become re-educated. Thank you.
Current bull leg will be pushed into 2022, SPX may reach 5500 over there and serious correction follow ..
@1575 Correct. The number has been and remains 5000+ in 1q22 before a -10% possible.
costreduction profile picture
@Avi Gilburt ...

As a relatively new reader, I took the time to reflect on your bio and frankly, your perspective is unique and commands my attention. Your drum-beating regarding media and analyst fallacies has been unwavering and loudly rings home. My personal experiences reinforce this with each contribution of yours I read. For perspective, I have a story of my own ...

Many years ago, an electrical device at work malfunctioned, causing a fire in its electrical shutoff box mounted nearby. A large number of employees on the floor panicked at the flames, yelling and scattering, looking for a way out.

In the confusion, I took off my (company-provided) Ike jacket, wrapped it around my hand and wrist, walked over to the panel and pulled the handle down, shutting off its power. The fire was immediately extinguished and everyone went back to work. Later, I went to the back office to request a new jacket, to replace the $18 one that was burned from putting out the fire. The office supervisor admonished me for destroying company property.

The unfortunate moral of the story .... Truth and clarity often fail to influence the narrative, even if the narrative makes no sense whatsoever. I absolutely look forward to your next piece.

The Very Best of Days to All ..
snosaint profile picture
@costreduction I hope you are now that persons supervisor...
Data indicates, SPX could have 14.88% increase from Aug1 to end of year, giving target price 4400(1+14.88%)=5050 !
myhome profile picture
Loved this article and agree with everything you are saying, Avi. There is one point I disagree with.....i feel we will end the year @ 5000.
Not if Delta starts to gain traction 👇🏾

China Covid: Concerns grow as Delta outbreak spreads

@Sleepless@FED China is stimulating the economy there. People don’t move the market, only money.
@Sleepless@FED I'm curious: How many times does a source of information have to be wrong before you stop using it? The BBC does not have a credible track record for most subjects (and particularly the China virus). Their reliance on Chinese sources (particularly medical) only exacerbates the issue. Either your reading comprehension leaves something to be desired or you're a shill for the fear mongers. Either way, please stop.
@Sleepless@FED I guess you didn't read what he said.
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