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Bitcoin Is Partying Like It Is 2013

Aug. 01, 2021 10:17 PM ETBitcoin USD (BTC-USD), GBTC153 Comments
Ariel Santos-Alborna profile picture
Ariel Santos-Alborna


  • Recent price action and on-chain metrics confirm that the bull market is still intact.
  • In terms of price and cycle length, this bull market has demonstrated eerily similar characteristics to the 2013 cycle.
  • With Bitcoin continuing business as usual, the China ban was merely a speed bump as miners move their infrastructure to more friendly jurisdictions, particularly North America.
Bitcoin Symbol With Financial Chart
asbe/E+ via Getty Images

Just when many analysts claimed that Bitcoin had entered a bear market months earlier than expected, the price of Bitcoin exploded from $29,000 to $40,000 in less than a week, liquidating over $1 billion worth of short positions. My original minimum price target of

This article was written by

Ariel Santos-Alborna profile picture
Ariel writes about global macro, bitcoin, and tech. Featured in Forbes and Finnotes.org.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of BTC-USD either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Comments (153)

Sunil Shah profile picture

I GUARANTEE you will be shocked
"Coinbase Will Suffer From Its Shackle To Tether"
Thu, Jun. 3

Coinbase, now a listed Nasdaq entity, is a practical way to express a bearish view on the crypto world via a mainstream broker.
Coinbase just announced the stablecoin Tether will now be accepted on the entirety of their platforms; until April '21 it was excluded for very valid reasons.
This article focuses on persistent problems with Tether's liquidity, reserve assets value and the attestation thereof, despite the stern $18m reprimand and new conditions imposed by New York's Attorney General.
Tether's acceptance on Coinbase adds higher systemic risk to the entire crypto world. Coinbase will be a major casualty when these risks are realised. Sell COIN Now!
BLIN8089 profile picture
@Sunil Shah COIN insiders have been selling truck loads of shares.
Sunil Shah profile picture
@awstout1 just ans the bleedin q
"who are the new institutions that have invested in bitcoin as an asset on the b/s'\"

not no Fidelity that provided custody services for clients - financial firms are fin whores who will jump on any bandwagon their half-wit clients are dumb enough to want, to make profits.

BUT WHICH NEW COMPANY, other than MSTR & TSLA, have invested in bitcoin as an asset to displace $?
one hears ad nauseum of the 'healthy institutional demand' by new companies diversifying their $, but NAME THE COMPANIES!!!

don't be ensnared by the bull.
as for govts permitting it, they have to do uphold the rights of their citizens. but what do the officials say in concert? bank of England Governor: 'those who invest in crypto assets should be prepared to lose all their money'

Pompano Frog profile picture
@Sunil Shah

Thank you for this post. Most of the readers don't understand that the financial institutions are legally making enormous fees off of the ignorance of the investing public.
@Sunil Shah I have now determined you are completely clueless.
Xxfactor profile picture
GBTC is pissing me off again Discount widening even with no more unlocks
kjseagle1 profile picture
@Xxfactor house rules - wondering if Cathie Wood thought about this?
Sunil Shah profile picture
@Xxfactor GBTC , that's a perfect TO SHOW THE LACK OF INST INTEREST!!

cf the rigged price of btc, and the sham trades back and forth

without C Wood's support, one can only imagine the size of the GBTC discount......
Xxfactor profile picture
GBTC better buy back some more shares because the discount is widening significantly
Interesting thing is that China never ban the ownership of bitcoin, so the so called "China Ban" is really misleading from the very beginning.
BLIN8089 profile picture
@demuxer China blocks the use and trading of it. Baning ownership is idiotic because it is not enforceable and no point of doing that. Governments, like China's, only need to close the doors to exit (exchanges) and make Bitcoin unusable as money. For those who already own, the only use for them is to cash them out outside of China through exchanges for OTC markets - which requires them to have bank accounts in other countries or use USDT and have non KYC accounts -- illegal in most developed countries -- in Binance or FTX and risked of being jailed for money laundering.

People are delusional or lying if they think cryptocurrencies, as they are now, would be worth much without those centralized speculative crypto exchanges (more like casinos). They can talk any BS narrative about the magic of their sound money. If there are no exits for those "sound money" -- markets or use of them for purchase -- they won't worth much.

I guess that why El Salvador makes it BTC legal tender so to make is a safe heaven money launderers - takes only a few billions to buy the country. However, El Salvador it a very small economy and does not produce a lot of stuff, so for importing people there still need to use currencies such as USD and it probably couldn't afford to be cut off from USD financial network for being money-laundering heaven.


Xxfactor profile picture
@demuxer What good is owning it if u can't sell it,
Astropin profile picture
If only that had any relation to Bitcoin...but it doesn't.
Well done. But EVERYONE is in BTC at this point...
c4dancer profile picture
@allenhe Everyone? Why am I seeing so many bearish articles on bitcoin, and so many posts including the words "Ponzi, tulips, regulations will kill it, no intrinsic value, a joke, greater fool, Tether debacle, Chinese ban, inneficient coin, manipulation, imminent crash"?
Xxfactor profile picture
@c4dancer Haters. Every successful thing has them. It's a sign of legitimacy
c4dancer profile picture
@Xxfactor "Haters. Every successful thing has them. It's a sign of legitimacy"
Trump and Biden have millions of haters apiece but almost everyone thinks that one of them is not legitimate (clearly not everyone thinks the same one, but I've made my point.)
ScottyBills profile picture
SlowHandLuke profile picture
Appreciate the article. I have been into crypto since 2011 and have not seen the "smart money" interest and buy-in like they have this last year. From what I have read recently, the majority of money going into BTC in the last few weeks is "large institutions" buying large amounts on the dip. Not retail. Very positive sign.
BLIN8089 profile picture
Those bitcoin boiler room operators suffer cognitive dissonance in their spiel.
1) On one hand they say Bitcoin is a "decentralized" currency which offers holders freedom from the tyranny of banks, institutions and debasement of fist money such as USD;
2) On other hand, they celebrate their gain in USD and settle trades with USDT (a stable coin equivalent to digitally counterfeited USD) at completely centralized exchanges (Binance, FTX, Coinbase, Kraken, Bitfinex, ..) and the adoption from "institutions."

Most of them, including the majority of contributors in SA, do not know jack about how Bitcoin or other cryptocurrency works and their design is mainly for peer to peer payment and very difficult to fit into the corporate treasury and regular retail operations, which they absolutely know nothing about. E.g. anyone holds the private key company's bitcoin treasury wallet, he/she could transfer all the money out some wallets he/she owns and disappear without a trace and nothing could be done about it. It is the reason that hackers demand ransom to be paid with cryptocurrencies.

They are MLM schemers who don't care about either the ecosystem or technology but just want to gather enough credulous people so to exit rich.
@BLIN8089 It can't be any worse than the federal reserve.
@BLIN8089 - Encourage you to do some more research into blockchain. Just because there are a lot of people that say a lot of dumb stuff about it (like to the moon) doesn't mean that after you sift through the garbage, there isn't a technology that has an absolute epic amount of use cases for it.

Currency is not one of the best use cases. In fact, it's one of the worst. If you can get past the word "Currency" you might find that what it actually is, is so much more interesting.
BLIN8089 profile picture
@coroscant72 I am familiar with Blockchain. Bitcoin, Ethereum and other DAG based protocols. And yes, too much junk has been circulating by people who know little about what they are.

It is an ingenious way by Satoshi to make digital cash - preventing double-spend (ie counterfeiting) possible by using “mining” (computing and block reward as incentive) for security and consensus. (Andreas Antonopoulos’s Mastering Bitcoin and Jimmy Song’s programming Bitcoin are good books as well as Satoshi Nakamoto’s white paper in 2009 to understand technical details)

How the money is represented is different in Bitcoin based Blockchains ( LTC, BCH, BSV, Dodge) and Ethereum. In Bitcoin blockchain, payment is the money. On the contrary to what you said, digital money is not the worst case but the natural case. In Bitcoin, payment (ie transaction history represented by blockchain, a Merkle tree) is the money (UTXOs). All other thoughts about potential applications of blockchain came afterwords. It is indeed a very creative and ingenious way to solve the “double spending” and achieve distributed consciousness over the Internet, in which communication is not reliable and no deterministic timing.)

Ethereum was created to expand on that with EVM for example for more rich functionality and programing language in “smart contracts”, instead of simple stack and assembly language in Bitcoin Blockchain.
Sunil Shah profile picture
SHOW ME THE NEW INST DEMAND AND 'healthy interest' apart from the vested interests of TSLA MSTR
'this is the cycle of increased popularity amongst institutions, not just the retail investor like in prior bull markets. The increased popularity amongst corporations is only beginning'

show me signs it is beginning
name one new institution invested in bitcoin or any other crypto coin

'we are seeing v healthy inflow from institutions"
@Sunil Shah Instituional German funds now allowing crypto as of about a week or so ago, evidently.
I dunno if Germany counts.

Sunil Shah profile picture
@awstout1 if they are allowing it, doesnt mean they are mad enuf to invest in them
bitcoin is 'allowed' as an alternative investment in pension funds
doesnt mean it will get there!!
@Sunil Shah well they haven't announced investment in tulip bulbs probably because there's no demand.... I was in the Anti-Crypto camp until recently, but think the infrastructure now exists which makes crypto *plausibility* worth the risk, even if the easy millions have come & gone. Balanced against the possibility of 100s% gain, over time, a few % seems like a good bet, even if it isn't a "safe" bet.
220k by year end. Hodl.
Sunil Shah profile picture
NAME THE NEW INSTITUTIONS that 'are showing healthy interest' in holding bitcoin or any crypto coin for that matter.

BiotechValley Insights profile picture
@Sunil Shah

Bitcoin pumpers and moon boys are creating fake rumors to lure in retail, then dump on them:

Amazon adopting BTC = FAKE NEWS
Walmart bought BTC = FAKE NEWS
Apple invests millions in BTC = FAKE NEWS
Saudi Aramco Mining BTC = FAKE NEWS
Israeli fund buys $250M BTC = FAKE NEWS
Paraguay, Mexico Adopt BTC = FAKE NEWS
Alibaba buying BTC = FAKE NEWS
c4dancer profile picture
@BiotechValley Insights I'm posting this because I normally like your posts and I mentioned this earlier but you haven't changed your post. Nobody knows any true financials about Chinese companies so we don't know if your Alibaba assertion is correct or not. I'd be much happier if the Alibaba line was removed the next time you post this.
Anyone making negative comments on bitcoin itself and the technology didn't bother to educate themselves on it. The tech is full-proof and so are the economics behind what positive impact it can have. One can make arguments on adoption, price, politics, but please educate yourselves on the economics and technology before commenting.
@Anthony.Leut if bitcoin is so great why isnt the world adopting the use of it immediately? dwell on that
@karondongotbanned it is... In terms of adoption, Bitcoin has roughly the same users as the Internet had in 1997.

But Bitcoin's growing faster. Next 4 years on current path will bring Bitcoin users to 1b people, that's the equivalent of 2005 for the Internet.

Currently over 150 million users. I'm sure that is a faster growth rate than gold usage was in its conception.
roymottram profile picture
in 2 years the SP500 is up 50% with one crash of >10%
in 2 years BitCoin is up 262% with 8 crashs of > 20%
a little volatility doesn't hurt that much over the long run
roymottram profile picture
in 5 years the SP500 is up 101%
in 5 years BitCoin is up 6670%
gold and silver both up less than 100%
sorry all you people missed out on that gain
at least a few of you were smart enough to ride TSLA up 1400%
@roymottram The venn diagram showing overlap of TSLA haters and bitcoin haters is just a single circle.
BLIN8089 profile picture
Depending on timing and the level of pyramid one is at.

you know that the return of BTC from Dec 17, 2017 - Dec 17, 2020 (3 years) is 0% right?

where is it going to go from now? no one knows.

BTW, drawing analogy betwen TSLA (which is a stock with product offering and centralized productive entity) and Bitcoin is idiotic.
Rob Chanock profile picture
There are indeed many similarities with the 2013 time frame. I believe that there is also a huge difference being that in 2013, bitcoin and crypto in general had low relevance with regards to widely accepted financial transactions. I see that currently changing in a big way due to advances in bitcoin as a true financial transaction option due in large part to what is happening with Lightning. Lightning (and others) are addressing two of the biggest prior disadvantages that have dogged crypto transactions-capacity and high fees. We are light years ahead of 2013 in those key areas and as they continue to evolve, it will bring crypto as a relevant financial transaction option in both undeveloped and developed regions into more parity with existing fiat offerings.
BTC is a scam. Not only a bubble, but quite literally fraud through so called “stable coins”. Tether stopped printing and USDC took over. Same game, different name.

As soon as the fraud ends, BTC collapses. The amounts would make Madoff blush.
@SomeGuy14 wall street is the scam hedge funds and MM are trash and do nothing for anything or anyone Btc has millions of uses and created an entire new world lol
@SomeGuy14 Same dude, every bitcoin article, no info comments. LOL. HFSP.
Pompano Frog profile picture
Dear Reader..

China did not restrict Bitcoin because it wants "to maintain tight control over its population."

China is a major manipulator of its currency. The cornerstone of its industrialization policy is to maintain a currency under valuation to the $USD of roughly 40%. That is similar to what Japan had during its high economic growth phase. China maintains its currency undervaluation because it controls through official and unofficial channels the flow of lending/investing in its domestic banking system.

As crypto currencies have grown in size they have threatened that dominance over capital flows.

Crypto currencies are also a threat to economic growth through out the emerging markets. These countries have trouble collecting taxes and crypto currencies make it even more difficult. These countries rely on taxes to pay for infrastructure to support economic development.

There is not the slightest benefit to this entire industry. It is only a matter of time until the ax falls. There will be a constant flow of new entrants to take in the inflow of free cash until the end. Just like all the other speculative bubbles.

(GBTC $34.49, S&P 4410, Nasdaq 14764)
Fundamentalanalyse profile picture
@Pompano Frog


there are just so many red flags. but well. we are in the age of NFTs, SPACS, TSLA... lol.. many ppl think bitcoin is actually worth anything. That is actually a solution for something... lol

i agree "it will end like all other speculative bubbles"...

disclosure : im short bitcoin.. and know about bitcoin like +10 years ago. i could have invested 1000 dollar in it and i would have made +11 million now. that alone should tell you something if you know about markets !

so many red flags.. so many...

"The young doctor turned away from moulding flesh and embarked on a career dealing in electronics. He built a group of companies in Italy that, according to his Bitfinex profile page, and reiterated by Tether in response to questions from the FT, he grew to over €100m in revenue and which he says he sold shortly before the 2008 financial crisis.

Italian company documents cast his business background in a very different light. In 2007, Devasini’s business empire had revenues of just €12m and was subsequently dealt a deathblow by a devastating fire at Devasini’s warehouse and offices in February 2008. The parent company of the group, Solo, went into liquidation in June that year. The subsidiaries, Acme, Compass and Freshbit, had been written down to a nominal €1 value apiece in Solo’s 2007 accounts. Tether insists that Devasini “portrayed the facts entirely accurately”.

sheerace profile picture
@Fundamentalanalyse ...Bitcoin is an accountable, transparent, secure and open means of exchange...not tied to to the control of any
central government, not dependent on banks or even your adversarial opinions or historic, perceived “value”...It trades freely, honestly and efficiently.....Bearish opinions, government regulations do not matter....this coin is the moral plateau and the financially independent asset where I live, good luck on yours
Michael Bryant profile picture

"im short bitcoin.. and know about bitcoin like +10 years ago. i could have invested 1000 dollar in it and i would have made +11 million now. that alone should tell you something if you know about markets !"

Um................how? One of the few ways to buy $BTC-USD before 2012 was via bankrupt Mt. Gox. And almost all investors lost everything, although I think a judge recently ordered Mt. Gox owners to pay 1/10 of investors' $BTC-USD back.
techy46 profile picture
Disagree, dot.coin is like 2000?
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