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Assessing AGNC Investment's Results For Q2 2021 (Includes Dividend Projection Through October 2021)


  • On 7/26/2021, AGNC reported results for the second quarter of 2021. AGNC reported a comprehensive loss of ($488) million and a non-tangible BV as of 6/30/2021 of $17.39 per common.
  • In this article, I will discuss my previous account projections versus actual results. I will also discuss AGNC’s dividend sustainability through October 2021.
  • I will also provide my thoughts about AGNC’s MBS and derivatives portfolios as of 6/30/2021 and discuss trends that have occurred during July 2021 impacting the sector.
  • AGNC’s BV performance slightly underperformed my expectations while the company’s net spread + dollar roll income modestly exceeded my expectations.
  • My current price target and recommendation are stated in the “Conclusions Drawn” section.
  • I do much more than just articles at The REIT Forum: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more. Learn More »

Finance chart with high peak on document
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On 7/26/2021, AGNC Investment Corp. (NASDAQ:AGNC) reported results for the second quarter of 2021. AGNC reported a net loss of ($411) million, an other comprehensive loss (“OCL”) of ($77) million, a comprehensive (total) loss of ($488) million, a non-tangible book value (“BV”) as of 6/30/2021 of $17.39 per common share, and

I am currently "teaming up" with Colorado Wealth Management to provide intra-quarter CURRENT BV and NAV per share projections on all 20 mREIT and 14 BDC stocks I currently cover. These very informative (and "premium") projections are provided through Colorado's S.A. Marketplace service. In addition, this includes additional data/analytics, weekly sector recommendations (including ranges), and exclusive "rapid fire" mREIT and BDC chat notes/articles after earnings. For a full list of benefits I provide to the REIT Forum subscribers, please see my profile page.

This article was written by

Scott Kennedy profile picture
Note: I am currently "teaming up" with Colorado Wealth Management to provide weekly CURRENT BV and NAV per share projections on all 20 mREIT and 15 BDC stocks I currently cover. These very informative (and “premium”) projections are provided through Colorado's S.A. Investing Group, The REIT Forum. In addition, this includes additional data/analytics, projected dividend per share rates, continuous sector recommendations (including ranges), and exclusive mREIT and BDC "rapid fire" chat notes immediately after earnings (followed by subsequent earnings assessment articles).


I cannot cover ABR or STWD in the mREIT sector due to indirect conflicts of interest.

Note: So, readers have continued to reach out and ask what I provide within the Investing Group, the REIT Forum. I provide the following benefits vs. what I provide to the public:

1) Quarterly earning assessments of all 35 mREIT + BDC peers I cover. This includes rapid-fire "chat notes" the same/next day of earnings for each covered stock; followed by a detailed assessment article.

2) Subscribers can ask questions / engage in discussions with me daily via the REIT Forum chat feature (each weeknight and during the day on weekends). I answer all questions on the two sectors I cover. The REIT Forum’s chat feature takes precedence over my public responses and personal messages from non-subscribers.

3) Each week, I/we provide a “weekly recommendation” article (with tables for illustrative purposes) so readers can quickly find out which mREIT and BDC stocks have moved “in and out” of my BUY, SELL, or HOLD recommendation range. I believe this is highly valuable information that can lead to enhanced total returns or minimize an investor’s total losses.

4) For my mREIT + BDC articles, subscribers get “early looks” for all public articles I provide. This typically ranges from 1-3 days prior to public publication. For investors looking to “jump on” some of my ideas, prior to the general public being aware of such ideas, this is valuable.

5) Within the REIT Forum mREIT + BDC articles, subscribers are provided with one, or a combination of, the following benefits: a) additional tables; b) additional topics; and/or c) sector recommendation tables which are updated weekly using my CURRENT projected BVs/NAVs for all 35 sector peers I cover. This includes access to sector “risk ratings”.

6) I provide, for each BDC I cover, risk ratings on over 1500+ underlying portfolio companies. In addition, I provide weekly credit upgrades / downgrades on specific underlying portfolio companies. By having access to this valuable information, subscribers are provided “an edge” when it comes to assessing future BDC performance (which directly impacts stock price valuations).

7) I provide “real-time” chat messages regarding all purchase and sale decisions I make within my personal portfolio for the two sectors I cover. In the past, I have provided such disclosures, for free, via the StockTalks feature of S.A. (for transparency and credibility). However, since this provides additional value for subscribers, I “transitioned” these real-time disclosures to subscribers of the REIT Forum. I will continue to disclose publicly all stock purchase and sale decisions. However, they will only be within each applicable sector article which won’t be in real-time (could be a few days later or could be a few weeks until readers see what moves I made outside the REIT Forum). 

I am a Certified Public Accountant (CPA) and Certified in Financial Forensics (CFF). I have also been a member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA) for 24 years. My current title is partner at a national accounting firm. I have audit, tax, and consulting experience with entities in the following sectors: closed-end funds, energy, financials, healthcare, homebuilders, pharmaceuticals, private equity, REITs, and telecoms. I also have experience with C-corps., estates, high net worth individuals, LLCs, LLPs, S-corps., and trusts. I am an active investor. My investing fundamentals are based on both qualitative and quantitative information. By using my financial / analytical skills, I create specific investing ideas / strategies based on valuations and total returns. The two main sectors I currently provide articles on are mortgage real estate investment trusts (mREITs) and business development companies (BDCs).

Disclaimer: I cannot own and will not give an opinion on any investments my current employer has any direct or indirect professional services with (accounting, audit, tax, consulting, etc.). As such, most large-cap stocks are "off the table" regarding my articles. All accounting insight, analysis, and opinions stated within any articles I write (in regards to a specified stock) are entirely from my own personal research and analysis. I believe my articles are both informative and in some cases educational.

I appreciate my loyal readers and I’ll continue to try to provide high quality, in-depth articles.

Commonly Asked Questions:

Question 1): If you are only paid per article, why make your articles so long / detailed?

- I like to provide the “nuts and bolts” of a company. As such, I strive for my articles to have some sort of “hard to obtain” facts / figures. From this data, I like to fully discuss / analyze specific topics within a particular stock. This mainly consists of a quarterly projection article and a series of articles on a company’s dividend sustainability. In certain instances, I also write articles in regards to specific, material events that occur during a quarter.

- I believe a company’s quarterly results and upcoming dividend declarations are two of the most important topics readers are requesting information on. My analysis takes the “average” article several steps further to allow readers to have access to information that is rare to public viewership.

Question 2): How come you only write 1-2 articles a week (would like to see more)?

- As stated in my profile above, I have a full-time professional career. I write / analyze stocks in my free time. To provide these types of high quality / in-depth articles, I can’t see writing more than 2 articles a week. I believe “quality” should always be a higher priority versus “quantity”.

- As many readers should know by now (if you’ve followed me for a while), I'm not here for the monetary rewards. If that was the case, I’d write 5+ weekly articles and provide little to no engagement in each article’s comment section. I believe the comments section is as important as the article themselves b/c readers have a wide range of questions in relation to each article or the sector in general.

Question 3): What do you personally gain from writing these articles?

- I am not here trying to promote a company, book, or website. There’s nothing wrong with that. That’s just not what I’m about. I’m here for the “average Joe”.

- When I decided to write these articles, I based it on the notion I am filling a “special niche” per se. Using skills that have been built up over my professional career, my articles usually provide unique information that most writers either a) don’t have the technical expertise to provide or b) don’t bother providing due to the time it takes to compile such data. As such, I believe the S.A. community benefits from my articles. I solely do this b/c it’s a passion of mine and I like helping readers have accurate, reliable data that is not readily available. Yes, I understand this may seem “hard to believe” in this day and age.

Question 4): How come you do not write about more stocks?

- To give readers the level of detail that I provide in my articles, I amass large amounts of data every quarter (or even weekly). As a direct result, a large amount of time is consumed by obtaining / analyzing this data.

- If I expanded the stocks I research, it would most likely take away the quality of other articles I currently am writing about. Again, this gets back to the “quality vs. quantity” metric.

- There is a fairly large range of stocks / investment vehicles I cannot write about / provide an opinion on due to various conflicts of interests (regarding my professional career). This is a topic I take VERY seriously.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of AAIC, AIW, NRZ, PMT either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

I currently have no position in AGNC, ARR, BXMT, CHMI, CIM, CMO, DX, EFC, GPMT, IVR, MFA, MITT, NLY, NYMT, ORC, RC, TWO, or WMC. CO Wealth Management is currently long AGNCO, AGNCP, ARR-C, CIM-A, CMO-E, DX, DX-C, NRZ, and NYMTM.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Comments (17)

Any idea on why this company has never raised its dividend? Seems odd when the income is so high
Scott Kennedy profile picture

Technically, AGNC probably could right now. However, estimated REIT taxable income ("ERTI") is notably lower than its core earnings for 2021. So, they are NOT "required" to pay a higher dividend.

Also, the eventual taper/rise in short-term interest rates is looming (albeit at least a year down-the-road) so the company is being cautious.

Hope that helps.

Fabulous detailed coverage as always. I've held AGNC for years and always check your articles.

To value a number of my stocks and MLPs I look at free cash flow yield as a gauge of value. I see that using Morningstar's value for AGNC's free cash flow is $1.742 billion, the number of shares outstanding according to finviz.com is 526.60 million, and the closing price on 8/13 was 16.34 yielding a free cash flow yield of 20.24% per share; that's a very healthy return. I have never seen anything in your articles about free cash flow yields, but I'm wondering whether you ascribe any significance to free cash flow yield in your analysis of mREITs?
Scott Kennedy profile picture

Hi, Thanks for the positive feedback and sharing your thoughts.

FCF is a useful metric in most sectors but I believe it "takes a back seat" to net spread and dollar roll income for AGNC. For the other mREITs, this would be the equivalent to "core earnings" and/or estimated REIT taxable income ("ERTI"). For years, I've continued to believe that's the best metric to track when it comes to any mREIT's dividend sustainability/financial liquidity.

FCF is still a useful metric but for mREITs the importance is diminished a bit in my professional opinion. Could write a short novel on all the reasons why but not going to get into that broad topic in a comment. Possible topic for a future article but I'm still doing a lot of work on recent earnings for the 35 mREIT and BDC stocks I cover. Hope that helps.

I consider these the most valuable articles on all of SA. Very very authoritative and professional. Thank you, sir.
Getting close to the “buy” window. However, Scott may have already updated his recommendations. Sometimes it pays to peak behind the screen.
Scott Kennedy profile picture

Hi, yes subscribers of the REIT Forum get weekly updates to my/our price targets, recommendation ranges, risk ratings, and CURRENT BV/NAV projections for all 35 mREIT/BDC stocks I/we currently fully cover.

03 Aug. 2021
Any thoughts on Netstreit (NTST)? It's not really high-yield at 3.08% but it seems like a potential stock for The REIT Forum (maybe not your coverage though).
Scott Kennedy profile picture

Hi, if NTST isn't a mREIT or BDC, it would be outside my coverage sectors on S.A. That said, you certainly could ask CO Wealth Management Fund to take a look at it if you want. He's usually open to taking a look and providing his thoughts regarding coverage.

As usual great work Mr. Kennedy.
Scott Kennedy profile picture

Hi Bob,

Thanks for the quick, positive feedback.

I appreciate it.

Retire2020 profile picture
@Scott Kennedy Thanks again for the update. Always appreciated. Have a great week.
Scott Kennedy profile picture

Hi, thanks for the continued positive feedback (remember your username). Thanks for being a loyal/long-term reader.

dlr.rrx_00 profile picture
Any thoughts on the possibility of NRZ increasing the dividend?
Scott Kennedy profile picture

Hi, I/we expect a dividend increase eventually. I don't believe it'll occur until the Caliber Homes acquisition closes. Hope that helps.

Subscribers of the REIT Forum get quarterly dividend projections for all 20 mREIT covered peers (and 15 BDC peers). Here's a link to the specific mREIT dividend projection article:


Income4ever aka Cyclenut profile picture
Good read,
Any thoughts on ABR, another SA Contributor specialized in Reits wrote ABR could see $13 again... also BRMK ?
Scott Kennedy profile picture
@Income4ever aka Cyclenut

Thanks for the positive feedback. I can't comment on ABR or STWD. Quote from my profile page: "...I cannot cover ABR or STWD in the mREIT sector due to indirect conflicts of interest...."

Regarding BRMK, I/we decided not to cover that specific mREIT. The list of mREIT and BDC stocks I cover are in my profile.

Regardless, thanks for asking.

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