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ISMs And ADPs - So Many Letters, Too Few Specific Numbers

Jeffrey Snider profile picture
Jeffrey Snider


  • The ISM’s Non-manufacturing PMI rose sharply in July 2021, four big points, up to 64.1 and handily beating estimates. This was in opposition to the slowdown trend which Manufacturing ISM displayed only too well two days ago. Though, the ADP release corroborates the sense of another economic slowdown.
  • We’ve seen this before, not really all that long ago. Reopening begins a frenzy into which Uncle Sam pours trillions of borrowed dollars and, for a time, it begins to look like a robust economic situation moving briskly in the direction of real recovery.
  • As with any scale reflation, this is enough to get extrapolated into something it never is; fed by those who uncritically believe in the idea of “stimulus”, both fiscal and monetary.
  • Yet,as the months go by, and as the last Fed “helicopter” fades into memory, thepositive impact wears right off and does so shockingly fast leaving little oflonger-run economic value.

Crisis in news
Nikolaev/iStock via Getty Images

One good, one bad and by the end more the latter, since the former simply bucked the trend, almost alone as an outlier (among outliers). The day started out with European deflationary pressures putting a spike on UST and related

This article was written by

Jeffrey Snider profile picture
As Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investment Partners, Jeff spearheads the investment research efforts while providing close contact to Alhambra’s client base. Jeff joined Atlantic Capital Management, Inc., in Buffalo, NY, as an intern while completing studies at Canisius College. After graduating in 1996 with a Bachelor’s degree in Finance, Jeff took over the operations of that firm while adding to the portfolio management and stock research process. In 2000, Jeff moved to West Palm Beach to join Tom Nolan with Atlantic Capital Management of Florida, Inc. During the early part of the 2000′s he began to develop the research capability that ACM is known for. As part of the portfolio management team, Jeff was an integral part in growing ACM and building the comprehensive research/management services, and then turning that investment research into outstanding investment performance. As part of that research effort, Jeff authored and published numerous in-depth investment reports that ran contrary to established opinion. In the nearly year and a half run-up to the panic in 2008, Jeff analyzed and reported on the deteriorating state of the economy and markets. In early 2009, while conventional wisdom focused on near-perpetual gloom, his next series of reports provided insight into the formative ending process of the economic contraction and a comprehensive review of factors that were leading to the market’s resurrection. In 2012, after the merger between ACM and Alhambra Investment Partners, Jeff came on board Alhambra as Head of Global Investment Research. Currently, Jeff is published nationally at RealClearMarkets, ZeroHedge, Minyanville and Yahoo!Finance. Jeff holds a FINRA Series 65 Investment Advisor License.

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Comments (4)

Mac Timred profile picture
If the Great Recession accelerated trends that hurt selective sectors badly (e.g. small business vs Amazon et al), the COVID Recession may have been and may still be, a Great Depression sized hit on labor, esp unskilled/ low skilled. In both cases the affected sector took/ may take, a decade to recover, involving repositioning, re educating and remaking, lives.
Salmo trutta profile picture
The FED ought to tell everyone exactly what they are planning on doing. There's no excuse for obfuscation.
The Nattering Naybob profile picture
@Salmo trutta Deceive, Inveigle, Obfuscate
Jeff: Thank you---you keep me between the guardrails
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