96 U.S. REITs By FFOps, Yield, And Price Targets, In August

Aug. 20, 2021 7:53 AM ETABR, RTL, AGNC, AGNCN, ARI, ARR, BXMT, CHMI, CIM, CIM.PC, EARN, GEO, GLPI, IRM, NLY, NNN, RITM, NWHUF, OHI, PMT, RC, RWT, SPG, STWD, TWO, NWH.UN:CA2 Comments

Summary

  • Annaly Capital achieved top FFO ranking, AG mortgage had the top analyst target upside, and The GEO Group top yield out of 350 U.S. REITs per YCharts data 8/17/21.
  • Top-10 net-gainers OHI, GLPI, ABR, SPG, STWD, TWO, RWT, MPW, NNN, and NRZ ranged 14.6%-34.39% 8/17/21. Top-30 US Hi-FFO REITs (priced over $5) by yield represented 6 of 9 REIT Industries.
  • Top US 30 $5+ priced Hi FFO REITs by Yield ranged 4.03%-10.61%. Top ten, NWHUF, STWD, BXMT, OHI, ABR, NRZ, CIM, AGNC, NLY, and TWO, averaged 8.36% yield.
  • 50 Top US REITs by broker estimated one-year target price upsides ranged 8.57% to 117.07%. Top ten, PDM, AFIN, SBRA, AJX, CHMI, NRZ, GNL, GEO, CLPR, and MITT, averaged 39.30% upside.
  • $5k invested in the lowest-priced five August top-FFO US Real Estate Investment Trusts by yield showed 5.99% LESS net gain than from $5k invested in all ten. Bigger (higher-priced) REITs topped the pack August 17.
  • Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of The Dividend Dog Catcher get exclusive access to our model portfolio. Learn More »

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Foreword

Any collection of dividend stocks is more clearly understood when subjected to yield-based (dog catcher) analysis, these US exchange sourced real estate investment trust stocks are perfect for the dogcatcher process. Here is the August 17 data for 96 top Hi FFO dividend-paying net gain REITs as documented by YCharts.

The Ides of March 2020 plunge in the stock market took its toll on US REITs. Only one top ten US REIT by yield from March 2020 was back in the top ten for April. However, the drop in prices in all top 50 US REITs (listed by yield) made the possibility of owning productive dividend shares from this collection more affordable for first-time investors. A rapid recovery in market prices partially closed that window of first-time buying opportunity.

As of August 17, 2021, the record showed most Hi FFO top-yield REITs living-up-to the dogcatcher ideal of producing enough annual dividend from $1,000 invested to buy one or more shares of their stock.

The latest poll showed 47 of 50 top Hi FFO REITs for August fulfill the dream of providing annual dividends from $1k invested sufficient to buy one or more shares of the target stock. A larger sample revealed 86 of 96 reaching that goal. (See list at end of article).

To learn which of these August 96 are 'safer' Hi FFO dividend dogs, follow the instructions at the end of this article after August 26 to click your way to my Dividend Dogcatcher marketplace follow-up 'safer' REIT dividend stock summary on a free trial!

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Analysts Estimated 14.6% To 34.39% Net Gains By Top Ten Hi FFO US REITs Come August 2022

Five of ten Hi FFO top dividend-yielding US Real Estate Investment Trust stocks found their way into the top ten gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year target prices. (They are tinted gray in the chart below). Thus, our yield-based forecast for REIT stocks was certified 50% accurate by broker target forecasts.

Projections of estimated dividend returns from $1,000 invested in each of these highest yielding stocks and their aggregate one-year analyst median target prices, as reported by YCharts, created the 2021-22 data points. Note: target prices from single analysts were not applied (n/a). Ten probable profit-generating trades projected by brokers to August 17, 2022, were:

Source: YCharts

New Residential Investment Corp (NRZ) was found to net $175.82 based on the median target price estimate from thirteen analysts plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 90% greater than the market as a whole.

Medical Properties Trust Inc (MPW) was projected to net $229.06, based on a median of target price estimates from thirteen analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 49% less than the market as a whole.

Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI) netted $217.63 based on a median target price estimate from fourteen analysts plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility equal to the market as a whole.

Redwood Trust Inc (RWT) made the list with a projected net gain of $186.71, based on a median of target price estimates from seven analysts, plus their estimated annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 3% less than the market as a whole.

Two Harbors Investment Corp (TWO) was projected to net $181.90 based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from ten analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate's risk/volatility 82% greater than the market as a whole.

Starwood Property Trust Inc (STWD) was projected to net $169.35 based on dividends, plus a median of target price estimates from seven analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate's risk/volatility 66% greater than the market as a whole.

Simon Property Group Inc (SPG) netted $167.08 based on a median target price estimate from twenty analysts plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 54% more than the market as a whole.

Arbor Realty Trust Inc (ABR) was projected to net $150.69, based on the median of target price estimates from four analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 93% more than the market as a whole.

Gaming and Leisure Properties Inc (GLPI) was projected to net $150.44 based on dividends, plus target price estimates from eighteen analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 2% more than the market as a whole.

National Retail Properties (NNN) was projected to net $146.04, based on dividends plus a median target estimate from thirteen brokers, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 15% less than the market as a whole.

The average net gain for these ten was estimated at 19.43% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these stocks. This gain estimate was subject to average risk/volatility 32% higher than the market as a whole.

Actionable Conclusion (11): (Bear Alert) Analysts Predicted Two Top Hi FFO US Real Estate Investment Trust To Show Average An 63.85% Loss To August 17, 2022

The probable losing trades revealed by Y-Charts to 2022 were:

Source: YCharts.com

Chimera Investment Corp (CIM) projected a loss of $35.77 based on dividend and a median of the target price estimates from seven analysts including broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 2% less than the market as a whole.

Iron Mountain Inc (IRM) projected a loss of $91.95 based on its dividend and the median of target price estimates from eighteen analysts including broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 21% under the market as a whole.

The average net loss in dividend and price was 63.86% on $2k invested as $1k in each of these two Hi FFO USA REIT dogs. This loss estimate was subject to average risk/volatility 11% less than the market as a whole.

Source: Open source dog art from dividenddogcatcher.com

The Dividend Dogs Rule

Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs".

50 Top US REITs By Target Gains

Source: YCharts

Top 50 US REITs By Yield

Source: YCharts

Top 50 US REITs By Funds From Operations

Source: YCharts

Actionable Conclusions (11-20) Yield Metrics Parsed 10 Top FFO US REITs

Top ten Hi FFO US Real Estate Investment Trusts as selected 8/17/21 by yield represented three of nine constituent industries.

At the top, one healthcare facilities REIT was first, The GEO Group Inc (GEO) [1].

However, thereafter, eight mortgage REIT industry representatives claimed second, through eighth, and tenth places: Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp (CHMI) [2]; ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR) [3]; Ready Capital Corp (RC) [4]; Ellington Residential Mortgage (EARN) [5]; Two Harbors Investment Corp [6]; Annaly Capital Management Inc (NLY) [7]; PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT) [8]; Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) [10].

Finally, a single diversified REIT placed ninth, American Finance Trust Inc (AFIN) [9] to complete the top ten August Hi FFO US REIT list by yield.

Actionable Conclusions: (21) Top Ten Hi RRO US REITs Reported 9.69% To 27.18% Price Upsides To August 17, 2022, and (22) Two Downsides Of -11.29% And -13.62% Were Tagged By Broker Target Estimates

Source: YCharts

To quantify top dog rankings, analyst median price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield "dog" metrics, analyst median price target estimates became another tool to dig out bargains.

Broker Targets Augured A 5.99% Disadvantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced of Top 10 US REITs To August 2022

Ten top FFO US REITs were culled by yield for their monthly update. Yield (dividend/price) results verified by YCharts did the ranking. The list was limited to stocks reporting positive total annual returns.

Source: YCharts

As noted above, ten Hi FFO Real Estate top ten gainers selected 8/17/21 showing the highest dividend yields represented three of nine industries constituting the REIT sector, according to YCharts.

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Charted 5 Lowest-Priced Of the Top Ten Hi FFO Highest-Yield US REIT Dogs (23) Delivering 13.63% Vs. (24) 14.50% Net Gains by All Ten, Come August 2022

Source: YCharts

$5000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten REIT kennel by yield were predicted by analyst 1-year targets to deliver 5.99% LESS gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all ten. The third lowest priced of ten Real Estate Hi FFO top yield equities, New Residential Investment Corp, was projected to gain 34.39% per broker target price reckoning.

Source: YCharts

The five lowest-priced Hi FFO top yield US REITs as of August 17 were: Two Harbors Investment Corp; Annaly Capital Management Inc; New Residential Investment Corp; Northwest Healthcare Properties REIT (OTC:NWHUF); Chimera Investment Corp (CIM), with prices ranging from $6.41 to $15.15.

Five higher-priced top gain REITs were: AGNC Investment Corp (AGNC); Arbor Realty Trust Inc; Starwood Property Trust Inc; Blackstone Realty Trust Inc (BXMT); Omega Healthcare Investors Inc (OHI), whose prices ranged from $16.29 to $34.44.

The distinction between five low-priced dividend stocks and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.

Afterword

If somehow you missed the suggestion of which stocks are ripe for picking at the start of this article, here is a reprise of the list at the end:

As of August 17, 2021, the record showed most top-yield REITs living-up-to the dogcatcher ideal of producing enough annual dividend from $1,000 invested to buy one or more shares of their stock.

Dogcatcher Ideal Dogs

Source: YCharts

The latest poll showed 47 of 50 top REITs for February fulfilling the ideal of providing annual dividends from $1k invested sufficient to buy one or more shares of the target stock. A larger sample revealed 86 of 96 reaching that goal. The chart above darkened those stocks not qualifying as ideal.

To learn which of those August 96 are 'safer' dividend dogs, follow the click instructions below after August 26 to access the Dividend Dogcatcher marketplace follow-up 'safer' REIT dividend stock summary and a free trial of all six dogcatcher portfolios!

The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor-in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your United States Exchange Real Estate Investment Trust stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com; YCharts.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst median target price by YCharts. Dog: Open source dog art from dividenddogcatcher.com

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This article was written by

Fredrik Arnold profile picture
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Simple, straightforward 7-step analysis that finds lucrative income stocks.
Fredrik Arnold is my pen name. In 2012 I retired from doing quality service analysis in Boston and moved to North Carolina in 2013, thence to Central Oregon in 2018. My fascination with capital preservation, long-term investments, and trading systems keeps me blogging for Seeking Alpha. My articles focus on dividend yields, analyst median 1 yr targets, free cash flow yields, and one-year total returns as stock trading indicators. These are essential tools for catching the most valuable dividend dogs. My dividend dogcatcher premium site in the Seeking Alpha Marketplace shows annual real-time trading results since 2015.

Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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