Demographics Are Driving Inflation, Not Central Banks

Sep. 09, 2021 12:05 PM ET16 Comments
Richard Durant profile picture
Richard Durant


  • Economies are complex adaptive systems, characterized by non-linear relationships which change over time. This makes assessing the impact of monetary and fiscal policy difficult.
  • Demographics, both population growth and age distribution, impact goods and services and capital markets in a relatively predictable fashion.
  • Inflation indices are an aggregate measure that hide as much as they reveal. Inflation may be the result of strong demand / supply constraints generally or for individual products.
  • Interest rates are an opportunity cost of holding capital. Lower interest rates generally increase asset prices, but this is dependent on the information content of changes to interest rates.
One Hundred American Dollars Being Printed - Money Printing Concept
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Inflation has received a lot of focus from investors in recent months as economies globally begin to emerge from the pandemic. There is uncertainty as to whether the current high levels of inflation are the result of base effects and supply

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Richard Durant profile picture
I have been managing my own investment portfolio for the past 9 years with a focus on fundamental research and deep value investing over long time horizons. My primary interest is finding early stage innovations which will create long-term value. I have a Bachelors degree in finance, an MBA and have completed the CFA and CMT

Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of BTC-USD either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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