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ASML: Investor Day Confirms Higher Medium-Term Expectations, Buy During Pull Backs

Oct. 01, 2021 1:20 PM ETASML Holding N.V. (ASML)INTC, MU, TSM19 Comments
The Outsider profile picture
The Outsider


  • ASML is one of the best companies in the semiconductor industry and has great growth prospects supported by several secular growth trends.
  • In its recent Investor Day, it has revised its medium-term target upwards, as I’ve predicted in previous analysis.
  • My price target is $1,000 per share by end-2024, an upside of 34% compared to its current price, thus investors should hold and then buy during potential pull backs.
ASML headquarters in Silicon Valley

Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images

ASML (NASDAQ:ASML) is a great company with good growth prospects, a profile that was recently confirmed at its investor day, but its upside potential is not fantastic right now and investors should buy during pull backs.


Since my first

This article was written by

The Outsider profile picture
From my academic training, Mathematics, I intend to focus on the quantitative study, basing my analysis on historical data, bearing in mind my position of "Outsider". I invest with a long-term perspective in industries/themes that have secular growth prospects and should deliver strong returns in a time frame of 10-15 years. Currently, I'm invested in Digital Payments/Fintech, Semiconductors, 5G/IoT/Big Data, Electric Vehicles, and the Metaverse.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of MU, ASML either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Comments (19)

Respect the Game profile picture
Thank you for the analysis.
I have been out for a few months due to valuation but will take this opportunity to get back in. Still hoping it will drop another 20% so I can get more at a very decent price.

sc21 profile picture
There is no question that ASML is a strong and interesting company. However, your analysis fails to take into consideration several issues such as
l. Very high customer concentration. They are really dependent on five customers.
2.While revenue is growing, it is not growing that fast and one is paying a substantial premium for the stock. ASML sells for a pe of roughly 40 while Lam and other major semicapex firms sell for pes of under 20. Often closer to 15. At this rate we are paying a very high premium for asml. OK if you understand what you are getting but not dealt with in this piece. sc
@sc21 Lam and the other companies do not have 100% market share either.
The Outsider profile picture
@sc21 yes that is true and is the main issue that I see on ASML, customer concentration is indeed high. But at least for the next thee years I don't think it is an issue, Intel, TSMC, Samsung, Micron are all investing a lot of capex. It may be an issue by 2025/2025 if this build up of capacity leads to oversupply but only time will tell
The Outsider profile picture
@justaguy11 exactly, it is a segment of semi equipment with higher competition
Waiting for $550
SuperPac profile picture
@nervv will it get there in 2021?
@SuperPac It may never get there, who knows. I was just sharing my price target for potential buying.
SuperPac profile picture
@nervv I think with the sort of drops we are recently seeing you may get your wish. Its down from almost 900 to 725. Sizeable fall. If the broader market corrects 7% - 8%...then who knows....
SuperPac profile picture
Persuasive article.

ASML Holdings is one of those stocks that never appears moderately valued. Expensive, always. However, the stock has scaled up 1,000% over the last decade and 600% over the last 5 years. It has the financial performance, the moated business and the momentum. Great stock to own.
The Outsider profile picture
@SuperPac agree, one of the best stocks to own over the long term in the semi industry
Good article. Based on your feedback about investor day, I nibbled some today.
The Outsider profile picture
@CyrusCynthia thanks for your comment, good entry point ASML has corrected quite a bit in recent days
A very timely and well stated article. After the huge drop from around 890 to the 730’s I’m adding here. Could it go lower? Of course and that’s why you average into great companies like ASML.
@D.Rapp ASML has been on my watchlist for the last 6 months. I finally started nibbling on ASML shares every day this past week after the share price has dropped about 15% over the last 2weeks. I will continue to DCA with any further corrections. If it drops to $500, I’ll back up the truck!
Great time to stock up on the stock! Longz ASML! :-)
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