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Novavax: Fantastic Window Of Opportunity

Oct. 03, 2021 1:00 AM ETNovavax, Inc. (NVAX)1.49K Comments
Sarel Oberholster profile picture
Sarel Oberholster


  • The bear raid on vaccine shares after the Merck announcement of another antiviral COVID treatment similar to Remdesivir was a huge success but uncalled for.
  • This is a great opportunity to buy any of the vaccine manufacturer’s shares at a fantastic discount and the best offer certainly is on Novavax.
  • The WHO EUL has been filed already on 23 September and approval is imminent.
  • An updated share pricing model is provided indicating a target price of $650 to $700 for end of 2021 even at the discounted benchmarks.

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Colin Anderson Productions pty ltd/DigitalVision via Getty Images

I have done an article on Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX) only a few weeks ago and yet, a lot have happened since then. The Novavax executives have been explaining their progress at a number of Conferences and Fireside Chats. The WHO EUL application was

This article was written by

Sarel Oberholster profile picture
My retail trader book series, The Paranoid Trader and The BIG FISH Trader, is now available on Amazon. It is a strategy guide for Retail Traders/Investors to motivate them to become profitable Traders/Investors and then remain profitable. Equally important to experienced Retail Traders/Investors, as it reinforces winning trading strategies. I seek understanding in everything but economics, markets and investing are where my mind is most at ease. In this I am forever doing research in my quest for answers. I do view the world from many different angles. Understanding economic behavioral patterns are important to me. Strategic investing over the medium to longer term is predominantly my focus when I contemplate my research or philosophies. I have a compulsion to express my thoughts in ordered form and my essays are the result of such expressions. I'm an economist by training, a financial engineer by talent, a banker by profession, a trader by interest and a father by chance.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of NVAX either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Comments (1,492)

ITSOVERNOW profile picture
So, how much money 💰 did you lose on this one?💸
@ITSOVERNOW haha nice one :) It's a shame people like him write books on investing and trading.
Sarel Oberholster profile picture
My new article on Novavax is now available here.

Novavax: Navigating A Storm Of Irrationality

@Sarel Oberholster very thorough and fact base, as always. Thanks.
Sarel Oberholster profile picture
@panalex Thank you, lets hope the storm passes quickly. 😊
@Sarel Oberholster
If the negative news on Pfizer gains traction in the morning, it only can help Novavax. So, I expect a nice pop in the morning.
Covid-19: Researcher blows the whistle on data integrity issues in Pfizer’s vaccine trial


Revelations of poor practices at a contract research company helping to carry out Pfizer’s pivotal covid-19 vaccine trial raise questions about data integrity and regulatory oversight.

Location given. The whistleblower has given her name. And she has been fired for coming forward.

(A little different than the Politico Articles)
@DrWTP "blows the whistle"???

I posted this elsewhere but it bears repeating:

"...Jackson was employed "for approximately 2 weeks in September 2020, and no part of her job responsibilities concerned the clinical trials at issue."

I'm sorry but it's simply UNBELIEVABLE that in TWO WEEKS this "whistleblower" who had NOTHING to do with the "trials at issue" managed to find every manner of violation imaginable.

And quoting the article"

"A few days later Jackson received a call from an FDA inspector to discuss her report but was told that no further information could be provided. She heard nothing further in relation to her report."

That indicates to me that the FDA thinks she is FOS.

What I find particularly interesting is I can find NOTHING about "Brook Jackson" on the internet. No linkedin page, no publications, no address, no nothing.
Regarding last Friday's face-plant for all Covid vaccine makers due to news of Pfizer's incredible new Covid treatment:
Dr. John Campbell, a very credible voice, made a video on this specific matter ("Vaccine trial whistle blower" - www.youtube.com/...
Looks like Pfizer has egg on its face. The video is well worth your attention.

NVAX's share price will rise during this coming week.
@sabaidii2 Thanks.
This likely was some factor in the drop of the BNTX as well as the Pfizer pill.
It is worth a watch.

The whistleblower gave evidence of its concerns to the BMJ or British Medical Journal.
They are concerning enough to warrant an investigation.

Lets see what is done with the whistleblower allegations.

Easy to find news on it on the internet.
Other outlets:
@DrWTP can somebody tell this to politico:))) would they say something against pfizer /biontech? or they prefer to talk always about "unnamed" 4 guys talking to them...and they dont make this obvious accusation news in their xxxking shitpaper?
Sarel Oberholster profile picture
The new article on Novavax is complete. I have successfully added a Discounted Cash Flow Enterprise Valuation to the model and made some significant changes to the model which I explain. The latest model is once again made available at the end of the new article for download. I also deal with the EC and important relative evaluations. The article is uploaded at SA for editing and as is always the case, it is the prerogative of SA to publish or not.
@Sarel Oberholster please share the link here once it’s available.
Sarel Oberholster profile picture
@Alexpp Sorry for not mentioning it, yes, absolutely, I'll post it. SA published my last two articles at around 2am in the morning, if they do that again, I'll post the link as soon as I'm back at my computer.
@Sarel Oberholster thanks..waiting it impatiently..you are a jewel here in SA Sarel..but of course we are ready to criticise your new piece ruthlessly..you cant escape it:)
Victor Robert profile picture
Multi Variant Pandemic is far from over

We are in the beginnings of a ten year or more Multi Variant Pandemic. To date we have used Messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines that are toxic at high doses and are dose limited for that reason. MRNA vaccines simply cannot provide enough vaccine for 5-6 COVID variants and 2-4 Flu strains without, damaging, disabling, and deadly consequences due to toxicity.

Additionally, mRNA vaccines cannot be controlled once in a persons body. Each persons cells will make a different amount of spikes depending on how they react to the mRNA instructions in the vaccine. Some peoples bodies make a lot and some not enough. Every one is different. This causes problems with immune system response. Also variations in mRNA interpretation will cause spike protein mutations. Spike protein mutations can have unintended averse affects on immune system response, cells and organs. Various reports of entire organ failure are occurring all over the world. MRNA vaccine makers cannot control the exact amount of spike proteins created by peoples cells or the creation of mutated spike proteins. Its a huge health risk.

As you know, between DNA and protein is another layer of information, called messenger RNA (mRNA), which serves as a crucial link between the two. the mRNA instructs how the proteins are to be made and folded. New research suggests that foreign mRNA may carry cancer-causing changes by down regulating anti-cancer genes and miss-folding proteins. Furthermore, because genetic tests don’t usually look at mRNA, those changes have so far gone undetected by cancer doctors.

Large scale genetic tests of the mRNA vaccines affects on genes, proteins and cancer, both before and after immunization have not been completed anywhere in the world.

Messenger mRNA vaccines are a health lottery. Some people may be fine, some will have immediate adverse reactions, some will actually die and some will go on to develop cancer. We just don't know because long term health studies have not been competed.

Multi Variant Pandemic

Its becoming apparent that the pandemic will continue and the COVID virus will mutate and attack again, and again, and again. We are now dealing with 5-6 COVID variants. Messenger RNA vaccines cannot fight this Multi Variant Pandemic due to dose toxicity and must be studied with extensive DNA, mRNA, and protein genetic testing before immunization and after.

We are not safe

Its now apparent that mRNA vaccines cannot end the pandemic. In-fact they may be making it worse. The mRNA vaccines have given people a false sense of immunity and previously closed countries are opening up to extensive air travel. People are attending large indoor events and taking chances by doing activities like singing in church, going to packed bars, concerts and ball games, and wedding congregations. Things have progressed from bad to very bad fast, and now public officials are lying to the public by telling them the pandemic will be over on Jan 4, 2022.

Its not over, we are in the midst of a world wide Multi Variant Pandemic and Toxic, Weak and Waning mRNA vaccines can not save us.
jara-mill profile picture
@Victor Robert only 158 posts? that tells me you're just trolling. Long MRNA.
ITSOVERNOW profile picture
@Victor Robert Ya can't fix stupid.
@jaramill Which stocks do you own? When did you get in them? Are you a trader or an investor?
ITSOVERNOW profile picture
Can it gain 100 points in a week?
THIS week?
BBwetrust profile picture
@ITSOVERNOW Yes, if FDA approves it this year.
jara-mill profile picture
@BBwetrust That's a BIG "if"
ITSOVERNOW profile picture
Always darkest before the dawn
ITSOVERNOW profile picture
They say "JNJ, MRNA, PFE, all were first in the marketplace and have established revenue streams....well, FORD & CHEVY were first and have revenues and then along comes TESLA.
Overlooking the fact that Covid infections are UP, deaths are UP, winter is here, mutations are ongoing, etc, etc, etc.
Not to mention that NVAX is into other life saving things as well, not just C19.
Go have a Miso and do some meditating.
Good example, but wrong companies. I would agree, if you pick PFE/BNTX as a Tesla. They were first in market like tesla was first in EV space. Nvax is like your Ford which is trying to take a piece of pie at market, but its too late and still not even on market... So also Ford is not a good example, because NVAX has worse position
ITSOVERNOW profile picture
@Majky NVAX will come out on top, and soon.
If you miss this opportunity to load the boat, you will forever kick yourself.
The CNN interview is enough to suppress the short attack with a helpful medicine in the doctor's kit.

ITSOVERNOW profile picture
@E310081 Serum Institute of India, c'mon and get me my PUN JAB :)
The Blue Baron 3.0 profile picture
I doubled my position today. Couldn't pass up the great opportunity.
BBwetrust profile picture
@The Blue Baron 3.0 Best of luck.
@The Blue Baron 3.0 I did. I couldn't miss it.
BBwetrust profile picture
Just look at this with a proper perspective, the Merck drug on Friday Oct. 1st caused it to drop 53 points, but recovered quite a bit of it by the end of the day. The Pfizer drug caused it to drop 56 points, and recovered about half of it as I type. The 160 is a very good daily support area, and it looks like trying to get back there before the market closes. This outcome on a Friday option expiration day with a terrible sentiment is about as good as one can hope for.
@BBwetrust just enjoy the ride:) you aint ride a bull like walking on a beach:))

....the trick is to ride and make it to the bell.......
@BBwetrust "160 is a very good daily support area,"???

Action towards the end and after hours suggests 160 may be the new "resistance area."
jara-mill profile picture
@CitronSource - Bingo....after-hours (though I tend to not put too much stock [no pun intended] in AH).....$155.69 as of this post.
ITSOVERNOW profile picture
Listen to some Louis Prima and you will be fine :)
All the NVAX Longs and other vaccine maker longs should listen to the BNTX call next week. I am sure they will get asked about "the pill". They will refute it, but very politely, I am sure. That may move them all up. Maybe hedge with some BNTX.
sorry for spamming but also one observation..I won't do the math now since I happily enjoy my ride and wine at the moment..I see pfizer the vaccine producer who benefits a lot of from the vaccine sales increase 7 % (isn't this an anomaly that new product do not cannibalise the old product) meanwhile biontech, Moderna,novavax, quidel, and maybe other covid related stocks are jaw dropping decreasing (I dont mention Merck because it can be one to oen impact) more than increase in pfizer:)))
@MICHAELSONG both the vaccine and the antiviral pill make very little material difference to PFE's bottom line. In fact, the vaccine didn't help PFE ride out the pandemic, it moved along with the broader market and now it is right where it was pre pandemic. the antiviral pill will not affect it that much either, it will ultimately settle to within 5% of where it was last earlier this week. the large swings in other vax manufacturers' sp will also attenuate eventually, as both prevention and cure are equally needed.
@panalex exactly..I totally agree..your English is better than mine:)
paper hands versus apes:)

I am holding tight..today I added more Novavax,,,I will start selling when stock passes 600 usd..of course anything can happen..but this is risk business eh:)
I am with you on this. Bought quite a bit today and think it is a great opportunity to accumulate Novavax.
BBwetrust profile picture
I think I just witnessed a throw-in the towel reaction on NVAX just a few minutes before 1 p.m. on this option expiration day.
ElBuho profile picture
@BBwetrust yeah that sell off doesn’t make much sense.
BBwetrust profile picture
@FlorianCS Right now the market is dealing with margin liquidations on a Friday afternoon. If there is a fundamental story behind the stock then it should rally after these forced liquidations are over.
You make a very interesting point about margin-related forced liquidations that I had not considered. Monday should be a very interesting day.
The market reacts irrationally to these types of announcements (had already done so when Merck announced its 50% effectiveness) by using a flawed logic: a pill to prevent Covid hospitalizations = less need for vaccines = sell of vaccine makers.

But the past also demonstrated that when the dust settles the vaccine makers make a comeback. I have owned all three BNTX, MRNA, and NVAX, and had sold everything a few days back out of fear of the PFE and Merck announcements, as I posted a couple of ays ago.

However, I do think there is an excellent buying opportunity. The Merck pill only has 50% effectiveness, and a number of serious side effects, The PFE pill needs to be taken in combination with an HIV drug, and we still do not know the full data to know the real side effects. Are we going to rely on that as the only solution? Not a chance. Personally, I do not want to take any of these piills. Vaccines will continue to matter.

However, after such a sell-off, the question is which vaccine now becomes the better value: BNTX and MRNA have fallen so much the last few days, that they are becoming very attractive. BNTX will announce massive revenues for the quarter soon (we saw the PFE earnings announcement so we have an idea of what is coming). MRNA has a tremendous pipeline. Those two have a number of contracts in place and will continue selling tons of vaccines. And NVAX, as we know, is likely to get approvals soon and has a smaller float, thus the chance also for a big potential upside, as we have discussed in the past.

Just in my opinion, the question is not whether there would be an upside to the vaccine makers after such an irrational back-to-back sell-off, but where to place those $$$ moving forward in this sector. I could be wrong as nobody really knows but I will take my chances.
ElBuho profile picture
@Enw0717 Agree with you. The price point of those pills is on top prohibitive for the vast majority of people. Vaccines will still be the one way out of this pandemic. Those pills are a potentially great additional tool for people's sentiment but won't do a lot in the grand scheme of things given their limited realistic applicability. I see their biggest upside in adding positive sentiment to getting out of this mess.
Sarel Oberholster profile picture
@Enw0717 Excellent comment!
Sold 30 of 60 shares. A half measure. If there’s a rise in share price, I’m not anticipating large legs up and there should be time to take the stars up as the dust settles.
@binky falbo Why would you sell shares right now? RIP my options expiring in Nov/Dec but the share price will rise if (when) more filings occur and if (when) approvals start to come in.
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