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TLT: Only To Lower Portfolio Volatility

Hale Stewart profile picture
Hale Stewart


  • CPI and the PCE price index are elevated.
  • The Fed still thinks inflationary pressures are transitory and therefore will dissipate by next year.
  • The TLT recently broke support on news that the Fed would end its bond-buying program.

Black Bull and Bear

peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images

In looking at treasury market tracking ETFs, I look at inflation and general central bank policy following by an analysis of the ETF's charts.

Let's start by looking at inflation.

CPI and Core CPI

CPI and Core CPI

PCE Overall and Core Indexes

PCE Overall and Core Indexes

Fed Economic Projections

Fed's Economic Projections

Dot Plot interest rates in the coming years

Dot Plot

TLT Weekly chart

TLT Weekly - stockcharts.com

TLT Daily chart

TLT Daily - stockcharts.com

This article was written by

Hale Stewart profile picture
Hale Stewart spent 5 years as a bond broker in the late 1990s before returning to law school in the early 2000s. He is currently a tax lawyer in Houston, Texas. He has an LLM in domestic and international taxation (MagnaCumLaude). He is the author of the book The Lifetime Income Security Solution. Follow me on Twitter at @originalbonddadYou can read his legal analysis on his law office's blog.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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