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Portfolio Update: Betting Against The U.S.

Oct. 05, 2021 7:16 AM ETSPX, EWU, GDX, SLV, SIL, GLD, ILF, EWZ, EWS, XLE3 Comments
Stuart Allsopp profile picture
Stuart Allsopp


  • I believe we are on the cusp of a multi-year reversal in global equity performance, with international, resource, and value stocks set to dramatically outperform U.S. stocks.
  • U.S. equity outperformance over recent years has primarily been due to the increase in price investors have been willing to pay for U.S. dividends, which is likely to reverse.
  • After turning net short global equities in August, I have shifted back to a net long stance due to increased bets on mining stocks and new positions in Chinese stocks.

Mutual Funds

benedek/E+ via Getty Images

I believe we are on the cusp of a multi-year reversal in global equity performance, with international, resource, and value stocks set to dramatically outperform U.S. stocks. In early August I shifted to a net short

This article was written by

Stuart Allsopp profile picture
I am a full-time investor and owner of Icon Economics - a macro research company focussed on providing contrarian investment ideas across FX, Equities, and Fixed Income based on Austrian economic theory. Formerly Head of Financial Markets at Fitch Solutions, I have 15 years of experience investing and analysing Asian and Global markets.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Comments (3)

Will never happen
Karphe profile picture
Great write up, and I strongly believe so as well.
Comparing US Stocks to other regions, PE ratios and other metrics seems quite elevated.
Russian Index (MOEX) trades at a 9.55 PE (with 4.3% div-yield), Hang-Seng Tech Index trades at 17.5 PE, NIKKEI trades at 16.2 PE compared to >25PE of SPX and Nasdaq. If one has access to those markets, I would consider reallocating.
Which kind of stocks would be included in your category of EM Value or do you play it via ETFs?
There's so much fear and anger towards China. It certainly feels like emotions have taken over.
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