Tellurian Inc.: It's A Long Way To Tipperary

Summary

• Revenues were $25.35 million in the second quarter of 2021, up from $6.33 million the same quarter a year ago.
• For the six months ended June 30, 2021, Tellurian issued 63.8 million shares of common stock under the at-the-market program for net proceeds of approximately $182.4 million.
• The FID is now scheduled in 2022.
• I recommend trading short-term TELL.
• Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of The Gold And Oil Corner get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Learn More »

Philipp Berezhnoy/iStock via Getty Images

Investment Thesis and Presentation

Tellurian Inc. (NYSE:TELL) reported its second-quarter 2021 results on August 3, 2021.

Quarterly results snapshot

Revenues for the quarter were $25.35 million with a net loss of $30.6 million or $0.08 per diluted share. Shares outstanding diluted jumped 57.3% to 386.05 million from 245.36 million in 2Q20.

Stock performance

Data by YCharts

Investment Thesis

The investment thesis is a tricky proposition for "LNG projects" not firmly secured but presenting an interesting story nonetheless.

The principal issue here is the project financing and the constant "wait-for-tomorrow-we-will-do-it." I am getting more skeptical, looking at the funding needed and the dilution that will happen. But it is probably due to my cautious nature and previous catastrophic experiences in similar large projects.

So far, the company was ultimately able to find enough contracts to allow for a reduced project. It is progress.

Tellurian signed 10-year agreements to sell 3 million tonnes per annum of LNG with commodity traders Vitol and Gunvor Group and in July with Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) (RDS.B) for 3 million tonnes per annum of LNG.

Those three contracts total nine mtpa and nearly all of the capacity of Driftwood LNG's first two plants in Louisiana. President and CEO ­­Octávio Simões said,

Tellurian intends to market up to 10 mtpa of LNG in our first phase on a JKM, TTF or blended price basis, as our integrated model provides the flexibility to offer this valuable product. We welcome Gunvor, the largest independent global trader of LNG volumes, to Driftwood and look forward to providing a cleaner fuel to meet growing global energy needs and enable energy access.”

Source: Presentation

This year, the project has moved from a business model that seeks partners like TotalEnergies (TTE) to a model that sells LNG to buyers like Vitol or Gunvor.

It is the main reason why Tellurian terminated a stock and LNG purchase agreement with France's TotalEnergies SE related to Tellurian's proposed Driftwood LNG export plant in Louisiana.

Because of the gambling nature of the investment, it would be unwise to invest a large amount of Cash here.

But it is also essential to invest a good amount long-term and, above all, short-term trade LIFO about 60% of your long-term position until the payday eventually comes.

The Driftwood LNG Project Phase I

Driftwood LNG LLC, owned by Tellurian Inc., is developing a liquefied natural gas production and export terminal on the west bank of the Calcasieu River, south of Lake Charles, Louisiana.

Tellurian, in recent months, decided on the smaller of two options for the first phase of the natural gas liquefaction and export facility. The decision was taken after the company could not secure more contracts.

Questions remained about whether the company's strategy of using 10-year supply contracts to finance an LNG export project will ultimately be successful. LNG project developers have traditionally relied on longer-term sale and purchase agreements that cover periods of 15 or 20 years. But an answer may materialize in the months ahead.

Source: Presentation

The company has started the financing process of Phase I that requires about $12 billion in investment. Furthermore, Tellurian will need at least a decade to build out their production and export facilities before generating revenue.

Tellurian exercised a long-term lease option with Port of Lake Charles in June 2021. It is a 20-year term lease agreement with extension options of up to 50 years.

Tellurian Inc. - 2Q21 Balance Sheet and Trend - The Raw Numbers

TELL	2Q20	3Q20	4Q20	1Q21	2Q21
Total Revenues $ million	6.33	14.27	8.62	8.71	25.35
Quarterly Earnings $ million	-128.85	-29.47	-11.65	-26.99	-30.60
EBITDA $ million	-112.66	-10.02	96.55	-18.44	-27.44
EPS (diluted) $ per share	-0.53	-0.10	-0.04	-0.08	-0.08
Operating Cash Flow $ million	-27.10	-9.14	-13.23	-10.48	-20.48
CapEx in $	0.12	0.00	0.92	1.40	5.35
Free Cash Flow	-27.22	-9.15	-14.15	-11.88	-25.83
Total Cash in $ million	88.31	77.95	78.30	58.73	111.86
Total Borrowing in $ million	140.04	118.43	111.09	16.85	0
Shares Outstanding (diluted)	245.36	291.41	311.99	356.68	386.05
Revenue details	2Q20	3Q20	4Q20	1Q21	2Q21
Revenue Natural Gas	6.33	7.27	8.62	8.71	5.58
Revenue NGL	0.00	6.99	0.00	0.00	19.78
Total	6.33	14.27	8.62	8.71	25.35

Click to enlarge

Source: Company 10-Q

Analysis: Revenues, Free Cash Flow, Net Debt

1 - Quarterly revenues were $25.35 million for 2Q21

Revenues were $25.35 million in the second quarter of 2021, up from $6.33 million the same quarter a year ago.

Net loss was $30.60 million or 0.08 per diluted share compared to a loss of $128.85 million or $0.18 per diluted share in 2Q20.

Source: Presentation

2 - Free cash flow was a loss of $25.83 million in 2Q21

Note: Free cash flow is the Cash from operation minus CapEx.

Trailing yearly free cash flow is a loss of $61.01 million with a loss of $25.83 million in 2Q21.

3 - The company had no more borrowing at the end of June.

Tellurian had total Cash of $111.86 million and no more borrowing at the end of June.

The company uses an At-the-Market Program with about $345.8 million remaining at the end of June. It is a vast potential dilution that any shareholder invested in the company should pay attention to. In the recent 10Q, the company said:

For the six months ended June 30, 2021, we issued 63.8 million shares of our common stock under our at-the-market program for net proceeds of approximately $182.4 million.

As of June 30, 2021, we had remaining availability under the at-the-market program to raise aggregate gross sales proceeds of up to approximately $345.8 million.

The debt is gone, but the shares outstanding are now 470 million compared to 245.36 million in 2Q20.

Technical analysis and commentary

Fun trading/Stockcharts

TELL forms an ascending triangle pattern with resistance at $4.20 and support at $3.35. The trading strategy is to keep a core long-term position and trade short-term LIFO using the stock volatility.

The project will take many years, and the company is using the stock to finance its needs. As you can see, the shares outstanding are shooting to the sky, and it is only a beginning. Thus, be very careful and invest in TELL what you can afford to lose.

Warning: The TA chart must be updated frequently to be relevant.

Author's note: If you find value in this article and would like to encourage such continued efforts, please click the "Like" button below as a vote of support. Thanks!

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of TELL either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

I own a small core long-term position but I trade short-term frequently around it.

Comments

[Whonoz]

www.businesswire.com/... Have to give it to the team, they are timing this news perfectly. I remain skeptical on what will actually come of the project but progress is progress I suppose.

[Fun Trading]

@Whonoz

Thank you for the link. Trade the stock...

[Whonoz]

@Fun Trading I would be happy to be proven wrong but I just don't see the positive that many apparently do with recent news. the Biden announcement was nonsense IMO and I get the impression that many think this limited FID means the full project is all but a given. I think I know better than this...but whonoz.

[Fun Trading]

@Whonoz

This stock is just a pump-and-dump stock and I never take any news seriously. I follow the momentum and trade.

[Whonoz]

20-30K cash burn to make an utterly useless youtube video released on Nov.10

[Philipsonh]

After this article was printed, TELL reported it is issuing a preferred share, so F.T. may wish to update his information. The symbol will be TELZ and information is in the public domain. The preferred is not yet trading.

[Fun Trading]

@Philipsonh

Thank you for the info. Yes, I will write an update soon but so busy now...

[Polylog]

I don't really get it. The current situation shows that the world needs more natural gas. We are shutting down coal in the developed world, here in Germany we are also shutting down nuclear. NG is the only replacement that we can use and that we want all the developing countries to use (instead of coal). This means the world needs a lot more NG.

Where should this supply come from? Russia cannot supply everyone. The US are super-rich in NG. It is only natural to export it and earn the spread. Yes, prices in Europe and Asia will come down eventually. Maybe over the winter, if it is not too cold. Otherwise in spring. But the spread will likely stay hugely profitable.

So much for the story. For trading, I do not trade the stock much because I cannot use LIFO. I do not think of it as an investment, but as a speculation. Just like natural resource speculations, this stock has a wild potential payoff. Assign a probability that it occurs and you will see that this stock is looking good unless you give it a very high probability to fail.
EDIT: As with all speculations, only use money that you can afford to lose.

[Fun Trading]

@Polylog

The issue is at two levels. First, yes, it is an attractive idea with NGL in great demand.
However, the project itself is weak with low interest in terms of contracts and necessitates a huge CapEx that cannot be justified with a smaller-than-anticipated phase.
Financing is a challenging task, especially for TELL that has no money and is selling a unicorn project that may not generate sufficient cash flow to justify a massive investment.

[Whonoz]

@Fun Trading CS talks are appearing more and more desperate to me. He keeps hinting that financing will not be a challenge yet no financing has happened. I don't see them making anything happen unless they can perhaps find a partner that can help with the financing or bankroll the project. Anything can I happen I guess but time seems to be running out and I think investors will get tired of the same old promises once again. That being said, I do regret not buying at 3.30 recently. That would have made for a nice quick trade.

He has a good team, maybe they are about to pull a rabbit out of a hat???

[Fun Trading]

@Whonoz

Yes, use TELL as a good trading tool and do not bank on anything long-term. You know the company, and you could get good timing from that. Take about 5% profit and repeat until something happens terrible or good.

[Whonoz]

@Fun Trading Do you think TELL has a chance of benefiting from this? finance.yahoo.com/...

[Fun Trading]

@Whonoz

I do not think directly. The market is favorable to LNG we all know but TELL must turn the project feasible and make the FID with financing wrapped up before we can connect the dot. Just mu 2 cents

[Whonoz]

@Fun Trading That was my take on things as well. IMO, it may help for more short term stock price increase but in the end, this may be a lot of hype over nothing.

[Fun Trading]

@Whonoz

Yes, I agree.

[damonhill]

This article makes no mention that $TELL management has expressed a desire (based on the advice from 'potential' investment bankers) to acquire more upstream assets in order to secure the NG volumes required to feed the Driftwood LNG plant. In addition to acquiring NG upstream assets, $TELL management wants to build a (multi-billion $) pipeline. When you start adding the overall costs required to complete phase one of this project it becomes clear that getting the necessary funding for the FID is not going to be easy. What I find most troubling is that management continues to sell shares raising funds for related company expenses. This has become an ongoing practice that gives me the feeling that management is executing some kind of Ponzi- scheme. I doubt that $TELL manages to secure funding for the FID during Q12022. But that will not deter Souki from pursuing his dream. So the question will then become: at what point in time will $TELL crumble like a house of cards?

[Whonoz]

@damonhill I initially jumped on the TELL bandwagon and bought into the "how great it is videos" by CS and it was great for a while. 100% plus gains gave the appearance of certainty. However, once I started doing more research, it became apparent that things were not nearly as rosy as CS was portraying. I wish I could argue against the things you point out but I share your opinion of a ponzi like scheme at this stage. I see the retailers comments after each CS video and I'm amazed at how blind their faith is in the man. Absolutely nothing of substance provided, just more analysis of global demand, blah, blah, blah yet they are impressed. As I understand the situation, these recent increases in prices are not helping TELL succeed, they are making it more difficult for them in fact. (Of course, I could see things incorrectly, it wouldn't be the first time)

[Fun Trading]

@damonhill

Good comment, thank you. I did not mention it because the company already announced so many "desires" that I am now only sticking to the real world.

Best regards,

[MvGenius]

@Whonoz, current LNG prices have almost zero to do with TELL, other than any gas they are producing now is generating more revenue than expected. I am also not sure how global gas prices being up would make it harder for them. If they are producing all their own gas, as is proposed, they control the cost of production, gas price up equal better margins. There is a lot that needs to be done, but there is a global need for LNG and unless that changes drastically, it only helps TELL.

[HariSeldon522]

Thx for this interesting article!!!

[Fun Trading]

@HariSeldon522

You are very welcome Hari

[geru]

During the last 3-4 years I only read upbeat articles about TELL but nothing happened. During the last 3-4 months I finally start to read downbeat articles, maybe a sign that finally something will happen?

[Fun Trading]

@geru

Something has happened... The project is now reduced to phase 1, and financing is going nowhere with a nebulous FID. It is not something that increases confidence.
By the way, my articles on TELL are not upbeat or downbeat. They are just my honest opinion.

[dmzporter]

@Fun Trading what do you think energy and inflation concerns will do with TELL fid?

[Fun Trading]

@dmzporter

LNG is the right energy now, and it is helping TELL, but inflation will increase the cost, and CapEx will climb very high. Financing will be harder to get for a reduced project.

[georgekvsh]

Arent the fears of dilution unrealistic? Even if they were to add another Billion shares outstanding they wouldnt get close to funding the project. Clearly there have to be other ways to finance the project than simply raising capital through equity offerings.

[Fun Trading]

@georgekvsh

It has to be but It is quite limited at the moment.

[RalfG]

Thank you for the article. I see your point, I see the numbers, I see the risk. But: all natural gas projects are capital intensive, this is no special problem of Tellurian’s Driftwood. The team has a first class track record, the people know what they are doing. It seems that demand for lng will heavily rise, knowing that gas and therefore lng is not scarce, but the producing costs seem very low in comparison to prices paid outside US in Asia and Europe. I admit that the project can fail but for me this is a first class investment opportunity in the best sense. No risk, no gain. That‘s it. Regards from Germany!

[Fun Trading]

@RalfG

You have made some good points. We can only communicate our opinion, but there is no certainty as always with such projects. You have to follow your guts but avoid falling in love with the idea.
Make sure to look at both sides of the pendulum and, above all, trade a good part of your position and feed your core position with the gain. It will reduce your risk in case the project is a dud.

[RalfG]

@Fun Trading Thank you for your advice, which I highly appreciate. Good luck!

[Fun Trading]

@RalfG

You are welcome. Best of luck

[ZEKendall]

"Tellurian will need at least a decade to build out their production and export facilities before generating revenue."

IF (and this is still a big IF, admittedly) the management team and Bechtel can get things done on time, Driftwood LNG's first phase could be completed as early as July 2025.

[Fun Trading]

@ZEKendall

Thank you. Do you really think it is feasible? Let see how the financing will go first, and then we will talk about a completion date.

[Mark Energy]

Motley Fool contributor Jason Hall wrote a piece commenting that this could be a 10-20-30 plus bagger but also said invest what you can lose. I recently bought 10,000 shares today and plan to invest more gradually if I see management fulfilling their obligations as planned. I also saw Mr Cramer recommend this stock a few days ago. Do you see this company having that much torque and upside despite the debt if gas prices are maintained at current levels and management not issuing senior notes, raising debt.

[Fun Trading]

@Mark Energy

It is not investing it is gambling. You bought an expensive ticket for $40K based on hype and a few "analysts entertainers". It could work, after all, I wish you the best of luck.

[ZEKendall]

@Fun Trading fwiw, there is a whole Discord for Tellurian due diligence and other related articles. I would say that it is investing if you are willing to hold long enough, though with any investment, there is the risk of failure.

Some retail investors see what happened with Cheniere and Sempra and are hopeful that the same people who brought those projects to fruition will do so again with Tellurian, which now seems to have the most experienced team in LNG of any new LNG export project in North America.
But yes, Driftwood LNG financing and acquiring more upstream are still hurdles that need to be overcome. The Chairman Charif Souki seems optimistic or upbeat on that.

[Fun Trading]

@ZEKendall

Good comment, thank you. CS is upbeat, and it should be. It is surprising to no one here.
However, the driftwood LNG is nowhere close to "feasible" now, and a lot has to be done. Right now, investing more than a small core position on TELL is chasing unicorns.
However, trading LIFO TELL is an excellent idea while the stock is trading in a channel.
What is your opinion on the stock dilution from the ATM? How can financing be achieved ($12 billion) for such a reduced project?
Good luck

[SolidSnakeXx]

whats the potential for this thing in the fall?

[Fun Trading]

@SolidSnakeXx

I cannot really answer your question. It is too vague...

[BigRollo]

@Fun Trading
I think he’s asking how much money we can make before the winter solstice. I too am interested.

[frackedup]

@Fun Trading thank you for the article. I have been trying to understand the hype of TELL but just can't get my head around the idea of holding common stock in what is essentially a massive construction project for the next several years. For a moment, I thought I was just dumb, so I went on Stocktwits and asked those genius investors to briefly summarize their investment decision and explain why they allocated capital into something that won't have any real returns for a minimum of five years. It took about 60 seconds and all hope for my life was restored. If you've ever used Stocktwits, you would get my point.

I think Elephant Analytics is going to put out an article on Kosmos Energy (KOS). If you get the chance, I'd like to see your take on KOS as well. They have an LNG project coming online in 2023 which provides some diversification to their oil-heavy offshore assets. Based on what I can tell, there is some serious upside the market hasn't started to price in yet.

[Fun Trading]

@frackedup

You are welcome.
You have to differentiate two things here. First, the character of the project is valid and supported by a solid foundation. Second, you have the feasibility of the project.
My concerns are about the latter. It is a vast project that requires massive financing. Based on the contracts signed etc. It doesn't look entirely feasible right now and is surviving by hype. In short, the probability of full completion is low.
Thus, investing in such stock is highly risky and necessitates a particular trading/investing strategy.

[MvGenius]

@frackedup, go look at the $lng chart (chariff soukis last company) and what happened to sp after fid and before gas was even shipped. Sp went really high after fid and actually dropped to first shipment. I want to be in before fid is announced and then after that will make a decision. I think there is a very real chance that once upstream production volume is secured fid will happen shortly after that. After fid I think a huge appreciation will happen, then probably fall to first shipment then head back up once revenue is being generated and profits realized. The downside is upstream and/or fid don't happen. I'll take a gamble on tell as we clearly see that us lng is needed around the world with what is happening now.

I also have a similarly sized position in kos, these are two of my favorite under the radar companies.

[Whonoz]

@MvGenius I had close to 100k shares for the same reasons you mentioned. I recently sold all of them based on what I see as the reality of the situation.

As you mentioned, they do not have anywhere close to the required capacity they need to supply the contracts, nor do they have the cash to buy more capacity and fund drilling cost. (and the cost is only going up with the recent price increase) Then they have to find a way to finance the projects on top of that. They need to convince investors quickly in order to deliver on CS last round of predictions. Dilution is not working well for them at these prices and the bond attempt was not confidence inspiring.

The recent hiring and job posting may be seen as a positive but at this stage, I want to see words backed up with actions.

Which do you think is more likely; a JV/Merger, TELL to remain independent and acquire financing or something else?

[HighYieldSucker]

@Fun Trading Do you cover Recaf? That’s another stock that I’m heavily invested in. Like TELL, it’s a boom or bust stock that I’ve taken to trading a portion of my holdings, in an attempt to bring my cost down. My intention is bring my cost on 20,000 shares to $0.00 on both these stocks.

[Fun Trading]

@Aristwattle

It is a good strategy. Trade LIFO around a small long term and use your gain to increase your core. Limiting the risk of a bust to only your gain. Soory do not cover Recaf.

[Whonoz]

Grounded in reality, good summary Fun.

"The principal issue here is the project financing and the constant "wait-for-tomorrow-we-will-do-it." I am getting more skeptical, looking at the funding needed and the dilution that will happen. But it is probably due to my cautious nature and previous catastrophic experiences in similar large projects."

I am getting more skeptical too. I sold all of my position, I should have taken your advice earlier and realized the 100+% gains I had. I sold at a decent gain and have decided to trade smaller positions until something besides youtube videos about NG demand in China. I find his video updates more annoying than anything now. I suspect CS expected the stock price to go much higher after the contract announcements in hopes of selling more shares and possibly attracting the banks/investors. But, that did not happen and it appears that their options are limited now. The bond deal did not instill much confidence either. I halfway hoped that was some clever scheme to get a good credit rating but CS indicated frustration with the situation during an interview.

Without news, I'm not comfortable holding any shares that are not below 3.50, a drop into the high 2's again would be a no brainer unless some major negative news arrives. ( I so want to be a fanboy of CS and see him pull it off but my confidence in that happening is dropping day by day)

[Fun Trading]

@Whonoz

Thank you for your opinion. You can keep the gain in the game and eventually trade on weakness and repeat, adding to your gain. You never know with such projects, and they can jump on rumors or whatever.
The most important is to take out your investment off as soon as possible and gamble with what you are making playing yo-yo. TELL will struggle for many years, using its currency as banana republic currency, and we are talking about billion shares potential at this pace...

[balonso]

@Whonoz drop into the high 2's is a no brainer. Yet you are skeptical on the project...🤦 I assume you'll be more confident if the price is just a little lower...

[Whonoz]

@balonso I'm not overly confident about anything but a price back in the 2's will likely trigger more interest from the retail investors that have very little understanding about the fundamental challenges. I will happily take advantage of the situation and swing trade. I see too many basing their investment decision purely based on CS's accomplishments in the past and I don't find this convincing. Look at the charts, I'm not sure what your issue is with what I said. And yes, if a rapid drop "just a little lower" without any substantial news...yes, I would be more confident and probably buy a larger amount than if it was in the 2.90's

I would love to see the project completed and would happily take a long position if that appears likely to me. But, I've also missed out on several 100k of unrealized gains by not swing trading more in hopes of financing agreements due to the contracts. Fun Trading has been spot on with his recommendations for TELL.

[Luck of the Irish]

He has just been awarded the 20-21 USEA for his Lifetime work. He is PRETTY WELL KNOWN. Wait and see....

[Fun Trading]

@Luck of the Irish

Can you explain further? who is He?

[Luck of the Irish]

@Fun Trading Charif Souki. Who else.

[Fun Trading]

@Luck of the Irish

Thank you. Then what good can this award be for shareholders? Pretty well known is not a carte balance for success... Otherwise, he would have already financed this reduced project. Are you not concern about the feasibility and financing?

[javkoza]

What does this mean?

"Because of the gambling nature of the investment, it would be unwise to invest a large amount of Cash here. But it is also essential to invest a good amount long-term and, above all, short-term trade LIFO about 60% of your long-term position until the payday eventually comes."

[Fun Trading]

@javkoza

Do you know what means trading LIFO?

[CincinnatiRick]

Yes, it's a crapshoot but, while the numbers always matter, the backstory here is what this is all about. I don't know how one can evaluate or even discuss $TELL without mentioning the history in the industry and the capabilities and intentions of the driving force, Charif Souki.

[Fun Trading]

@CincinnatiRick

What does that mean? Have you considered the dilution potential based on a $12 billion investment ahead and probably ten years of struggle?
It seems that you are falling in love with a "story" and do not realize how acid it can be for a shareholder like you.
I offer a trading strategy well adapted to the stock, use it.

It is you and your money. I wish you good luck!

[OscarSmith]

@Fun Trading I think what he means is look back into how he both built Cheniere and then totally turned it around when both times nobody believed it was possible. Lots of dilution happened and yet twice shareholders enjoyed 40 baggers

[Fun Trading]

@OscarSmith

Yes, thank you oscar. However, it is not a guarantee of future success. Look at the circumstances. They are pretty different.

[User 21359971]

Interesting