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Carnival Stock Forecast: What To Watch For Heading Into 2022

Nov. 01, 2021 12:43 PM ETCarnival Corporation & plc (CCL)CUK, CUKPF18 Comments
Bradley Guichard profile picture
Bradley Guichard


  • Carnival Cruise Line was damaged tremendously by the once-in-a-lifetime pandemic.
  • As cruises resume, the company must begin to turn the tide for investors.
  • What are the company's prospects in 2022 and beyond?

Cruise Ship Departing from Nassau

Ruth Peterkin/iStock Editorial via Getty Images

Investment Thesis:

Carnival Corporation (NYSE:CCL), commonly Carnival Cruise Line, is an operator of cruise ships and other travel and leisure enterprises worldwide. It operates the popular Carnival and Princess lines, among others. The stock was devastated during

This article was written by

Bradley Guichard profile picture
If you are a medium to long-term investor looking for an analysis of equities focused on cash flow, growth, and other critical metrics from a financial professional who knows financial statements inside and out, consider giving me a follow.While I am Tech-focused, I have a diversified portfolio, including growth and value equities, REITs, and dividend stocks. I like to use options for income and risk management when the opportunity arises. I have over 15 years of experience in the market. I am a practicing CPA; however, I have learned about investing more from avid reading, market watching, experience, and of course, making mistakes over the years. Also, am an admitted Excel junkie. I believe Benjamin Franklin when he said: "An investment in knowledge pays the best returns," and Warren Buffet that "The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect." I am constantly learning and focusing on long-term goals - even when the market misbehaves.  Thank you very much for reading, and please feel free to leave me a message in the comments or send a private message. All the best!

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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Comments (18)

OverTheHorizon profile picture
Thinks returning quickly to prepandemic levels. Pent up demand underestimated:

Carnival Corporation & plc. Operates seven brands of different Cruise lines. It is no COMMONLY referred to Carnival Cruise line, which indeed is just one of the brand CCL is operating
Bradley Guichard profile picture
@Aktien “Carnival Corporation (CCL), commonly Carnival Cruise Line, is an operator of cruise ships and other travel and leisure enterprises worldwide. It operates the popular Carnival and Princess lines, among others”

What’s the issue exactly?
Bulldog67 profile picture
Finally! A rational review of CCL that touches on the damage done with higher interest rates and equity share dilution.

This stock is NOT depressed when one factors in $1.4 billion increase in interest expense annually, plus a 69% increase in share count since 11/30/19.

The one item not mentioned is that CCL has CapEx costs of $10 billion between now and the end of 2025 due to new ships on order. How are they going to pay for those - more debt!!!
Bradley Guichard profile picture
@Bulldog67 Thanks. Great comment, the share price is deceiving.
Christopher Fortin profile picture
@Bulldog67 What's that huge sucking sound ? !
Bulldog67 profile picture
@Christopher Fortin

You don't think it is the water under all of CCL's ships do you? Possibly it is all the debt on the balance sheet, but that debt is making more of a "tick, tock, tick, tock" sound!

Amazing how many people buy a stock just because it is down from previous levels with a ..... "so it must be cheap" attitude, all the while not paying any attention to the financial statements.
high risk, low reward. can't predict what the stock price will do, but there are certainly better opportunities available.
Bradley Guichard profile picture
@robert paulson 77 That's pretty much where I am at too. Would expect a much bigger discount.
@Bradley Guichard thank you for the great article. most s.a. authors fail to highlight the stock price relative to higher debt and massive dilution. the chart is deceptive in that it hides these problems as well.
OverTheHorizon profile picture
CCL stock price will outpace the rise of the traditional metrics by 12-18 months. Heretical to some—opportunity for others. Likewise NCLH.
Bradley Guichard profile picture
@OverTheHorizon Thanks for the comment, all the best!
Bulldog67 profile picture

Please show us the analysis you used to arrive at this conclusion! LOL!
HATEFEEBAY profile picture
Well written and balanced article. I have been critical of CCL's valuation for many many months. I bought at #8 a share and unloaded quickly as it rose and happy I did as I spent that $ into other equities. #ROBINHOODERSIRRATIONALEXUBERANCE
Bradley Guichard profile picture
@HATEFEEBAY Thanks for the comment and kind words. Good luck out there!
OverTheHorizon profile picture
@HATEFEEBAY thank you Mr. Greenspan.
HATEFEEBAY profile picture
@OverTheHorizon +2 points for that one. Alan would be proud it was used in the context of a financial valuation too.
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