Bitcoin Propels My 29 Stock $411k Retirement Portfolio To New Highs With A 8.4% Gain In October
Summary
- My portfolio, built specifically for my retirement ~20+ years from now, rides the September downturn in the market back under $400k.
- Some massive risk-on portfolio restructuring including more Bitcoin as I prepare for the seasonal Santa Claus and Bitcoin run.
- Making monthly contributions, even though they seem small at the time, makes all the difference in the world over time in helping create a valuable retirement egg.
- A portfolio built for individual investors to outperform the majority of money managers through diversity and risk with the goal to be worth millions in retirement decades from now.
It is my firm belief that 80% of money managers can't outperform the S&P 500 index over time due primarily to the fees they charge their clients. Each and every individual person intent on having the happiest retirement possible could and should take charge of their retirement portfolios and invest in simple index/mutual funds and/or a balanced portfolio like the one I have set up to maximize returns over decades of performance. My ratios and distributions are based on my book - Investing Better Than A Money Manager: The Rise Of Retail Investing.
Contributions
Contributions make up a vital component of your portfolio especially when you are starting out as they are the building blocks of tax advantaged savings for retirement. The more money you have, the more concern you should have with taxes. This is why when you start out investing, you should try to add to accounts like IRAs ASAP instead of putting the money in regular investment accounts.
Contributions | IRAs | 401(K)s |
Jan 2021 | $0 | $2,100 |
Feb 2021 | $12,000 | $0 |
Mar 2021 | $0 | $0 |
Apr 2021 | $0 | $3,000 |
May 2021 | $0 | $0 |
June 2021 | $0 | $4,580 |
July 2021 | $0 | $0 |
Aug 2021 | 12,000 | $1,557 |
Sept 2021 | $0 | $1,500 |
Oct 2021 | $0 | $0 |
YTD CONTRIBUTIONS | $24,000 | $12,737 |
Here is how my portfolio performed compared to the SPDR S&P 500 Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) over the first three quarters of 2021.
Fund | SPY | Welsh | Welsh Minus Contributions |
% Gain Jan 2021 | -1.02% | 2.85% | 2.2% |
% Gain Feb 2021 | 2.84% | 2.59% | -1.1% |
% Gain Mar 2021 | 4.16% | 1.53% | 1.53% |
% Gain Apr 2021 | 5.65% | 3.01% | 2.13% |
% Gain May 2021 | 0.66% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
% Gain June 2021 | 2.17% | 7.75% | 6.4% |
% Gain July 2021 | 1.99% | 0.63% | 0.63% |
% Gain Aug 2021 | 3.17% | 6.63% | 3.03% |
% Gain Sept 2021 | -4.84% | -5.45% | -5.82% |
% Gain Oct 2021 | 5.76% | 8.42% | 8.42% |
YTD GAINS | 22.83% | 30.18% | 18.56% |
Regular contributions to your retirement portfolio help your portfolio to grow even on less than ideal months where you fail to outperform the S&P 500. Not every month will be a winner, but regular contributions can help make anyone's performance look great over time.
Here's how the SPY has tracked over the first 10 months of 2021.
My portfolio was divided up to start 2021 at around 73% stocks and around 27% mutual and index funds with the goal to increase stocks to over 80% of my portfolio over time. It is currently built with approximately 86% domestic stocks and 14% foreign stocks I have about 3% of my portfolio in bond mutual funds so that I know how they work and to have at least a little exposure to this sector over time. I plan to have bonds be a very small portion of my portfolio up to right around age 65. Diversification lifts my whole portfolio's returns over time, so finding the best stocks in every sector is a goal for me each and every year. Here are some of the main changes since my last portfolio article in September of 2021.
Welsh Portfolio | Stocks | Index/Mutual Funds | Bonds | Domestic | International |
Dec 2020 | 72% | 28% | 3% | 85% | 15% |
January 2021 | 73% | 27% | 2.6% | 87% | 13% |
Feb 2021 | 72% | 28% | 3% | 89% | 11% |
Mar 2021 | 73% | 27% | 3% | 87% | 13% |
Apr 2021 | 72% | 28% | 3% | 83% | 17% |
May 2021 | 72% | 28% | 2.8% | 84.7% | 14.8% |
June 2021 | 73% | 27% | 2.6% | 81.4% | 18.6% |
July 2021 | 73% | 27% | 2.6% | 86.4% | 13.6% |
Aug 2021 | 73% | 27% | 2.5% | 86.1% | 13.9% |
Sept 2021 | 72% | 28% | 2.6% | 83.6% | 16.4% |
Oct 2021 | 73% | 27% | 2.4% | 85.9% | 14.2% |
Here are the details of my personal ~$411k portfolio then, based on values of approximately $40k, $400k, and $4 million broken down by sectors with brief descriptions of each stock in each sector. The best thing about my portfolio setup is that it is scalable so that people interested in following a similar path can set up their portfolios to follow my path no matter how small or large their holdings are. With fee-free trading and the advent of fractional shares, investors are more capable than ever in setting up amazing portfolios even when starting from scratch.
The Welsh Portfolio Spreadsheet Link
The Information Technology Sector (Aim = 15% of my Stock holdings)
Stock | $40K | $400K | $4M |
AAPL | $2,990 | $29,900 | $299,000 |
QCOM | $830 | $8,300 | $83,000 |
DELL | $610 | $6,100 | $61,000 |
RBLX | $630 | $6,300 | $63,000 |
% Portfolio | 16.8% |
1. Apple (AAPL) should be considered as a potential cornerstone piece to any portfolio as one of the world's largest and most profitable companies that prints money almost faster than the Fed. I plan to hopefully always have Apple as one of my top 3 individual stocks over time as I continue to build my position over time. New iPhone innovation and the stickiness of the Apple ecosystem continue to impress along with Apple being able to raise prices at will when they have supplier cost issues. Their latest quarterly disappointment might be an opportune time to buy the dip if you are looking to add to or start an Apple position. I might look to add a few shares to my position at the end of the year if and when I decide to rebalance my portfolio for 2022.
2. QUALCOMM (QCOM) is a major technology solutions provider for companies like Apple and will be an integral part of upcoming transformational secular revolutions like 5G. I always like to have at least one chip company in my portfolio at all times.
3. Dell (DELL) is a legacy holding which continues to aggressively seek M&A opportunities like the value acquisition of the $67B EMC deal and the spin-off of the hybrid cloud giant VMware (VMW) at the end of October 2021 which it formerly owned ~80% of the stock of. Michael Dell is a shareholder winner through and through and following in his stock footpaths I think is a good long-term decision. The VMware spinoff should allow Dell to deleverage significantly while allowing it the free cash flow to hit its large but dwindling debt burden before Michael Dell moves on to his next future acquisition.
4. Roblox (RBLX) is a teen gaming platform that came public through a direct listing in March of 2021. My hope was that it did not come out of the gate as hot as earlier IPOs DoorDash (DASH) and Airbnb (ABNB), which were too expensive for investing in for me personally when they first premiered. I was very happy to get in at the IPO price of $64 a share when it premiered for a large holding in my portfolio. I always try to have an eye on what younger generations are loving and this platform is expanding and growing phenomenally. Also note that Facebook (FB) is changing its name to Meta Platforms Inc. to embrace the future of the Metaverse that is central to what Roblox is. Give me one of the originators and pioneers in the space any day personally over Facebook and its social concerns. Willing to build my Roblox position over time as it could be a game changer if the Metaverse becomes as big as Facebook believes it will be.
The Health Care Sector (Aim = 15% of my Stock holdings)
Stock | $40K | $400K | $4M |
ARWR | $2,610 | $26,100 | $261,000 |
MDT | $470 | $4,700 | $47,000 |
LLY | $630 | $6,300 | $63,000 |
PFE | $360 | $3,600 | $36,000 |
SMMT | $430 | $4,300 | $43,000 |
% Portfolio | 15% |
5. Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) is my 3rd largest individual stock position as an RNAi juggernaut entering key Phase 2 and 3 trials in 2021. A lovely balance sheet with key partnerships with Janssen (JNJ), Amgen (AMGN), Takeda (TAK), and Horizon (HZNP) significantly de-risk its TRiM platform as it continues to expand into additional cell types. Amgen continues to progress Olpasiran (AMG 890), its collaboration candidate with Arrowhead, with a Janssen update hopefully later in the year on JNJ-3989 for hepatitis B virus. Takeda will help co-develop and co-commercialize Arrowhead's lead candidate ARO-AAT preparing Arrowhead for independent commercialization of its wholly owned candidates while it continues to find partners for new candidates like the recently revealed ARO-XDH with Horizon.
A setback in its ARO-ENaC candidate led to a tremendous buying opportunity in the stock a couple months ago. ARO-ENaC is neither the company's lead product nor a very important one in Arrowhead's ever growing pipeline of candidates. I used this opportunity to expand my shares from 250 shares up to 400 shares in August while purchasing additional shares in September moving up my holdings now to 410 shares. Baby steps are fine. Not every transaction has to be huge as growing over time is a great way to build wealth over time.
The end of the year press releases are starting to come for Arrowhead with a Janssen $10M milestone payment for JNJ1 just happening along with a Phase 2b dosing milestone for ARO-APOC3 in late September. I continue to add shares and wait patiently for some pivotal JNJ-3989 news which could change the world for Arrowhead.
6. Medtronic (MDT) Health Care device maker that I think has significant upside from COVID-19 for years to come. Hospitals will need the best equipment companies like Medtronic provide as health issues from COVID-19 could and seem poised to persist for years.
7. Eli Lilly (LLY) is a favored legacy holding that I hope to slowly add to over time and never sell. Some amazing drugs and a pipeline of potential game changing candidates can give this company real zip when good data hits. FDA approval of Biogen's (BIIB) Aduhelm for Alzheimer's opens the door for Lilly's donanemab to be approved giving this company exciting upside as well. Lilly's potential entrance into Alzheimer's could be the sizzle the space is looking for instead of Biogen's Aduhelm fizzle.
8. Pfizer (PFE): A healthcare behemoth with a big stake in the fight against COVID-19. Seems like a great potential long-term winner at a great value compared to some of its peers. Worthy of a small to regular position as a slow-moving whale of a company as COVID-19 continues to mutate.
9. Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) did a very suspicious move in August in combining its two Phase 3 blinded pivotal trials for its ridinilazole candidate for clostridioides difficile into one study. This was doable as both studies were at ~ 50% enrollment but were apparently not enrolling fast enough for management's liking. However, in September, investors found out that this change in the study was not pre-approved by the FDA so the trial results won't be enough for the FDA moving forward although Summit should now have top line results in Q1, 2022.
Following those results, Summit and the FDA will start up talks again on the next steps depending on the data results. I am still very bullish on the candidate and the data results which means that I have used this opportunity to expand my shares in the company from 600 shares to 850 now at this time. Small steps up but data early next year will be a catalyst I will be watching very closely as I hopefully can expand my shares in the company up closer to 1000 shares in the meantime.
Sold: Sold my Sundial Growers (SNDL) as a small position I had grown tired of to help fund my most recent Bitcoin purchase. The meme crowd seems to be moving in a different direction now with Shiba Inu coin replacing Dogecoin.
The Communication Services Sector (Aim = 15% of my Stock holdings)
Stock | $40K | $400K | $4M |
DIS | $1,840 | $18,400 | $184,000 |
WWE | $970 | $9,700 | $97,000 |
GOOGL | $880 | $8,800 | $88,000 |
% Portfolio | 12.3% |
10. Disney (DIS) will crush Netflix (NFLX) in growth over the coming decades in my opinion as its streaming platform continues to grow by leaps and bounds. Forever stock for me as I look to add cheap shares when it heads below $170.
11. World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE) is one of the few remaining live event media stocks growing globally, while always a potential takeover target from juggernauts like Disney. Its newest Peacock deal helps bring its brands into even more households. This position continues to grow as I think the company is on track to sell itself in the next couple of years, hopefully for a great premium. I bought more WWE shares in August and added a few more shares in September as I continue to add shares here and there at these terrific prices. Considering its well off of recent highs of the past few years as a former ~$100 stock, I think it continues to be a great value as Covid-19 declines and the world hopefully gets back to normal.
12. Alphabet (GOOGL): One of the FAANG names producing amazing results as always in its latest earnings call. I have a lot of exposure to the FAANG names with my mutual funds, but it is hard to have too much of these juggernauts. I used my latest IRA contributions to add to this position as a forever stock.
The Financial Sector (Aim = 15% of my Stock holdings)
Stock | $40K | $400K | $4M |
GBTC | $6,700 | $67,000 | $670,000 |
HSBC | $220 | $2,200 | $22,000 |
% Portfolio | 23% |
13. Bitcoin (OTC:GBTC) (BTC-USD) soared over the back part of 2020 and rallied even more to start 2021 by reaching new all-time highs around $65k a coin. In May though, Bitcoin took a nice little plunge to around half the value of its beginning of the year highs. I took this opportunity to double the shares I had in GBTC from a former 500 shares now up to 1,000 shares as my largest individual stock holding. I believe in the long-term prospects of Bitcoin and its potential usefulness which means that I am unconcerned about its value dropping by half in a month. I would not be surprised to see Bitcoin make a run towards $100k a coin late in 2021 as it also tends to do phenomenally well in December in some years.
To this effect, I added an additional 350 shares of GBTC with a net average cost for my position now of $31.46 a share. This makes it far and away my largest individual stock holding as I continue to up my exposure to the digital gold. My latest article on Bitcoin explains why I sold most of my utility stocks and a couple small positions to fund my latest Bitcoin build as I make a big bet that this year's Santa Claus run will include a Bitcoin run as well. Risk on.
14. HSBC Bank (HSBC) is a legacy holding that might finally see some upside if the United Kingdom can ever get Brexit resolved and new trade opportunities sorted out. That of course, might be a big if. Might be a stock on the chopping block early next year when I hopefully do my IRA contributions for 2022.
Sold: Finance of America (FOA) is a value SPAC in the Financial sector that I bought thinking it was a great value but turned out to just be a value trap. With mortgage issues persisting longer than expected. and a rising rate environment on the horizon, I decided to dump this holding in order to stock up on my favorite Bitcoin stock.
The Consumer Discretionary Sector (Aim = 6% of my Stock holdings)
Stock | $40K | $400K | $4M |
TSCO | $640 | $6,400 | $64,000 |
MELI | $290 | $2,900 | $29,000 |
ABNB | $250 | $2,500 | $25,000 |
% Portfolio | 4% |
15. Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) quietly continues to perform as one of the best companies in retail mostly immune to Amazon's dominance. Its acquisition of Petsense makes a lot of sense now, especially with the explosive growth of everything pet in the wake of COVID-19.
16. MercadoLibre (MELI) is Latin America's Amazon. One of the best international stocks in my portfolio that I really should add more to on pullbacks. Now that I am fully out of Alibaba (BABA) and Amazon (AMZN) I hope to be adding soon to my MercadoLibre holdings maybe at the end of 2021 or early 2022.
17. Airbnb (ABNB): Finally got to add shares of this stock as it seems to be a great potential value as Covid-19 continues to mutate. An obvious potential reopening play at a big discount from recent highs. I skipped out on the IPO as it came out too hot for my liking, so adding when it was around $140-$150 a share made me very happy.
The Consumer Staples Sector (Aim = 6% of my Stock holdings)
Stock | $40K | $400K | $4M |
PG | $540 | $5,400 | $54,000 |
PEP | $510 | $5,100 | $51,000 |
GIS | $610 | $6,100 | $61,000 |
% Portfolio | 5.5% |
18. Procter & Gamble (PG) is a legacy holding that sports a decent growing dividend along with many best in class brands like Olay, Head & Shoulders, Dawn, and Charmin. Always nice to have some stalwarts for the upcoming recessions and depressions.
19. PepsiCo (PEP) is a phenomenal drink company with brands like Pepsi-Cola, Gatorade, and Tropicana along with amazing growth in the snack category with Frito-Lay that, in my mind, sets it apart from competitors like Coke (KO).
20. General Mills (GIS) is a legacy holding for me with a great dividend that experienced a huge turnaround during COVID-19 with its brands, including its $8B acquisition of Blue Buffalo in 2018. Its former debt concerns have mostly evaporated as it has shored up its balance sheet and continues to benefit from the stay-at-home movement.
The Industrials Sector (Aim = 6% of my Stock holdings)
| Stock | $40K | $400K | $4M | |
| J | $1,260 | $12,600 | $126,000 | |
| GSL | $1,740 | $17,400 | $174,000 | |
| % Portfolio | 10% |
21. Jacobs Engineering (J) is a legacy holding I have loved for years. A long-time no-debt company that makes super-smart acquisitions. It now has very low-debt and has initiated a small dividend which it should be able to grow annually over the coming decades. Its focus on carbon neutrality and diversity in its workforce makes it a prime target for the younger generation. Jacobs could also experience sustained tailwinds for years if infrastructure bills become a reality under the Biden administration.
22. Global Ship Lease (GSL) is a containership company benefiting from continued crazy day rates as commodity supply issues continue to plague the world. Management continues to aggressively add ships instead of paying down debt making it a riskier play in the space as it aggressively grabs for additional market share. If containership rates continue to rise or even hold steady over the next couple of years this stock will be an amazing home run. Its potential prompted me to sell most of my other stocks in this sector as I jump in big again looking for more quick profits. I'm not afraid to sell at any time if there is a massive move in the stock or if I start to see any weakness in containership pricing though. Don't forget about its almost 5% dividend rate as well Yowza.
The Materials Sector (Aim = 6% of my Stock holdings)
Stock | $40K | $400K | $4M |
CLF | $1,600 | $16,000 | $160,000 |
PCT | $66 | $660 | $6,600 |
% Portfolio | 5.5% |
23. Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) is an Iron Range stock that acquired AK Steel at the end of 2019 and, more recently, announced the acquisition of ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT) in late 2020 in a deal valued at $3.3B. Cleveland-Cliffs is well on its way to becoming a fully integrated steelmaker. A bipartisan or reconciliation infrastructure bill or two later in the year could do wonders for the iron and steel markets in the coming years as they are already cashing in on amazing pricing amid high demand.
24. PureCycle Technologies (PCT) is a SPAC stock focused on a way to recycle plastic developed by Procter & Gamble. A wait and see stock like a lot of SPACs, I found interest after a Hindenburg short report eviscerated the stock. A tiny position is fine to start with patience to be expected.
The Energy Sector (Aim = 6% of my Stock holdings)
Stock | $40k | $400k | $4M |
PBR | $1,080 | $10,800 | $108,000 |
HAL | $390 | $3,900 | $39,000 |
% Portfolio | 4.9% |
25. Petrobras (PBR) is a Brazil-based oil play with lots of potential if it can get past its scandal-ridden past. Unfortunately, Brazil President Bolsonaro recently named General Joaquim Silva e Luna to replace CEO Roberto Castello Branco resulting in a huge crisis of faith in the company in its latest scandal. With that scandal now in the past, Petrobras should be able to benefit nicely from high oil prices that continue to climb. At least it is doing a great job eliminating debt which means it could be a long-term winner regardless of politics on its current course. With energy and oil prices climbing to highs not seen in years, stocks like Petrobras, with its phenomenal dividend, could result in a great portfolio boost over winter especially if the oil and natural gas market starts to get crazy. I added more shares of Petrobras again in September officially moving it up into one of my top 10 individual stock positions. Just absolutely love the massive stock dividends with Brazil's potential privatization plans for the company a decade away possibly keeping its price very affordable.
26. Halliburton (HAL) is a U.S.-based oil service company that dominates services in the North American market. Small position with no real plans to expand.
The Utility Sector (Aim = 5% of my Stock holdings)
Stock | $40K | $400K | $4M |
DUK | $20 | $200 | $2,000 |
NEE | $17 | $170 | $1,700 |
% Portfolio | 0.1% |
27. Duke Energy (DUK) Continue to buy and sell my Duke position when trade opportunities in the market arise. I find holding this company more rewarding than owning cash as its dividend and low beta are just what I'm looking for instead of owning cash. Sold out almost all of my stock in Duke to help fund more Bitcoin purchase for its possible holiday run.
38. NextEra Energy (NEE) is a top utility growth play with a decent dividend. A nice representative for a sector that I'm always willing to sell at the drop of a hat with Duke Energy if an opportunity in the market arises. Did just this in October as I wanted to significantly boost my Bitcoin holdings before the end of the year potential Bitcoin volatility.
The Real Estate Sector (Aim = 3% of my Stock holdings)
Stock | $40K | $400K | $4M |
AMT | $880 | $8,800 | $88,000 |
% Portfolio | 2.9% |
29. American Tower (AMT) is a premier U.S. cell phone tower company aggressively expanding globally across a few more continents. 5G evolution could be a lucrative tailwind for years to come. Can't think of a reason to add another real estate play so I just plan to keep adding to this holding over time.
Bonds (2% of my Stock holdings)
This asset class is currently satisfied by my mutual fund holdings.
My top 10 Holdings and Percentage of my Portfolio
Stock | Sector | % Portfolio |
Bitcoin | Financials | 16.3% |
Apple | Info Tech | 7.2% |
Arrowhead | Health Care | 6.3% |
Disney | Communication Services | 4.5% |
Global Ship Lease | Industrials | 4.2% |
Cleveland Cliffs | Materials | 3.9% |
Jacobs Engineering | Industrials | 3.1% |
Petrobras | Energy | 2.6% |
World Wrestling | Consumer Services | 2.4% |
| Alphabet | Consumer Services | 2.1% |
Total % of Portfolio | ~52.6% |
Stock Watch List: Stocks I am looking to add to my portfolio or add shares to in the coming months potentially.
1. Rivian (RIVN) - The price might be too expensive to warrant buying more than a few shares of this new EV company unfortunately. It is currently looking to IPO around Thanksgiving.
2. China Stocks - With a possible China Evergrande (EGRNF) collapse or restructure in the future I am keeping my eyes open for any opportunities this might present. This could include other China industries that sell off due to a general market collapse like Alibaba (BABA) to more likely me buying American stocks with key China exposure such as Wynn Resorts (WYNN). A big down move might not happen for sure but I'll be ready to pull the trigger if it does.
Staying diversified across all sectors of the economy while making larger bets on your favorite stocks is a great way not only to potentially beat the market, but also have fun doing it. Stocks are one of the best ways to build wealth for retirement, and everyone should have the opportunity to share in the success of the best companies the world has to offer. Best of luck on another productive and lucrative year in 2021.
Cronislaw/iStock Editorial via Getty Images
This article was written by
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of GIS, PG, PEP, PBR, HAL, GBTC, HSBC, ARWR, PFE, MDT, SMMT, LLY, J, GSL, PCT, CLF, NEE, DUK, AAPL, QCOM, DELL, RBLX, DIS, GOOGL, WWE, TSCO, ABNB, MELI, AMT either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Recommended For You
Comments (22)
really get going. It's great you get that. My portfolio is for a yacht as well : )
^This!
Good luck, I'm playing the same way.
I used to consider the Ponzi scheme scenario as well but I grew out of it. El Salvador is using it as a national currency beside the dollar and more countries will be following in their own ways over time including ours and how the U.S. wants to regulate it.
People's distrust and not understanding Bitcoin is great because it showcases Bitcoins tremendous upside still even at this point in the game.
