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Palantir: What Growth Could Mean For Price In 2025 And Beyond

John Rhodes profile picture
John Rhodes


  • First, I look at PLTR's early growth from $10 to $25 or so today.
  • Second, I review PLTR's growth assumptions once again showing how 30% growth per year is probably too modest.
  • Third, I show how leverage on PLTR using long-dated options probably isn't going to greatly accelerate investor gains over the next 2-3 years.
  • Fourth, I explain how many shares are needed right now to reach $1 million in PLTR stock by the end of 2025, given rational growth models.
  • This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Growth Stock Renegade. Learn More »

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It's very simple really. What's growth really mean for Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) investors in 2022, 2023, 2024 and beyond? This is more difficult to answer than it might appear on the surface but all will be revealed.

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This article was written by

John Rhodes profile picture
I am an investor, entrepreneur, father, husband, coach and teacher.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of PLTR, PYPL, CRWD, AMZN, FB either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Comments (59)

I keep thinking, how long will management be issuing stock to reward themselves for 15 years of hard work? Share count has doubled in the last couple of years, but selling pressure makes the price "the same."
The market is so hungry for the next FB, TSLA, AMZ, etc., that any growth stock gets hyped to the gills. The problem is 99% of them fail, and investors lose money. Just like the dot-com era all over again. PLTR must have a large advertising budget (paid for by shareholders) for these articles to be wiped out daily.
@nahplease I would never pay 31x sales for anything and expect it to generate profits over an extended period. Eventually, there is reversion to not only the mean, but reversion to sanity.
Outstanding article, clearly written, easy to understand, thank you.
kthor profile picture
I keep buying and selling the Jan 23 $25 for profits several times this yr ..50% every time, this last one into summer and hope for 100% perhaps more
moschissler profile picture
John, excellent piece based on skillful math extrapolations; I like your method and it bolsters my deep beliefs about why PLTR will grow consistently for decades. I will add shares as price ebbs over coming months. Long PLTR
John Rhodes profile picture

If I can't write it on the back of a napkin or draw it out with crayons then I'm generally not happy. Keeping it simple is very important to me.

Have a great day!
Aren't there better stocks to buy for the long term? Most hyped up stock whose products we know very little about and has been almost stagnant for more than a year.
John Rhodes profile picture

What stocks are better for the long term?

it hasn't really been stagnant for a year. That's more recent. Besides, stagnation in price for a year doesn't tell us anything about the growth the business. Sometimes the market doesn't price efficiently for growth...

Thanks for reading and commenting.
@Eminef What stocks though? 10 years would be closer to long term...
@John Rhodes

To be fair a lot of high growth stocks took a major hit since coming off their Feb/March highs and are likely to take their next major leg up since a long cooling off period.
Larry Hall profile picture
I think PLTR is both the most hyped and most overrated stock on the exchanges. Investors in PLTR overlook management behaviours that are hostile to shareholders.
@Larry Hall I heard this exact same thing for years about Amazon from 2000-2007 when they intentionally were losing money to grow and everyone was bemoaning their business model and lack of profit.
@paleraider you really did hear that?
@paleraider i didnt hear anything about it. people were bashing amazon because it was selling books.
BeachThor profile picture
The price was 29.05 after IPO pop. That was almost a year ago. Now it's 26.50. Down roughly 10%. The S&P is up almost 40% over same time period! How many people are hoping this is the next TSLA type stock? Good luck to all!
John Rhodes profile picture

Plenty of opportunities to buy under $20. In fact, getting in for $15 was quite possible.

Why? There was no real initial pop due to the DPO vs. IPO.

Selling puts in the $18-22 range could allow for buying PLTR for around $20, or making 15-30% annualized.

In other articles I’ve discussed some trading opportunities.

That said, buying (at good prices) and holding is “easy” for long term investors, giving PLTR’s growth vector.

Thanks for reading and commenting.
BeachThor profile picture
@John Rhodes your article on selling puts was excellent, as was the comment section on that article also.
Any individual who is invested for whatever reason, has made a wager on a hard to understand derivative.

That’s enough for me to hold position.

The software can only improve operators lives, merely from time, and refreshes.
nice exercise in mental masturbation. what are your projections for positive cash flow per share given the massive sbc required to incentivize all the " talent " required to manage every client. translate your growth percentages to that metric and then we will have a valuation discussion. By the way, all those exercised options shares that have been dumped are out there in the float.
Love the article. Learned something. Will pick up the speed of buys with any general market related pull-backs. But likely no more than 5000 shares. Cannot let it become more than 7-8% of portfolio. It is going to be decade long investment.
dratomic1 profile picture
Yup. Another Yeah PLTR article. There are so many. Bought in at $37 in Feb. Still waiting. If it weren't for covered calls, I'd be really pissed.
@dratomic1 Oh yeah, blame that purchase on the stock. I'm in under $10. I feel just fine for the long haul.
@dratomic1 lol sounds like your own fault, long at 22 dollars
John: About 3 - 4 months back - you very strongly advised, bullishly about buying Call options for January of 2023. But now, today you are completely reversing that statement by saying -"Third, I show how leverage on PLTR using long-dated options probably isn't going to greatly accelerate investor gains over the next 2-3 years. That's not to say options are bad, but LEAPS don't look sexy here."
What made you to go 180 degrees apart. please explain?
What made you to reverse your bullish to mildly bullish position.
Thanks, I am a member of your private investing community, Growth Stock Renegade.
John Rhodes profile picture

Great question. The very short version is that the economics were better at that point for LEAPS. And, that article also focused on some short term trading opportunities with short dated options.

I'll also point out that LEAPS are a bet on a great future. Not just weeks or days from now, but years. My bullish view hasn't moved at all.

Have a great day.
Nyi Nyi profile picture
Thanks for the analysis. I'm a firm believer in PLTR & began a position with $9.7 a year ago. I continue collection as much as I can. The moment I noticed PLTR could be huge opportunity is the long NYT profile about it aft few months of its IPO & we started happen to know about the detailed PLTR. From that moment on, PLTR never get back $10 range & even to $15 :D
Obi-Wan profile picture
A lot of positive articles on PLTR, but the stock isn’t listening. I’ve been in and out a couple of times, one gain, one loss. They have a lot of work to do and a lot of confidence to earn yet….
PauloCostaSilva profile picture
@Obi-Wan ... but when it decides to answer, some people will smile, other people will cry :)
BeachThor profile picture
@Obi-Wan I'm in same boat. Meanwhile my 401k index funds are up 35% in the past year.
kthor profile picture

I buy options when it's under 22-23 oversold and sell when it's near 28-30 when oversold = ez profit
John got me into PLTR at $12. I'm at full position and happy to be the first Growth Stock Renegade. He just convinced me with this article to find something to sell and buy some more. Got to get as close to 8,000 shares as I can!
uwin1_on_the_wave profile picture
As per fibonacci retracement, we may hit $29 in Jan 2022... we still need to reach and hold the next upper levels between $33 and $39... which will probably not happen until 2024..... Palantir does not have major catalysts other than news of client acquisition and these bytes are not exploding the price higher.. not a problem just normal behaviour of this type of stock. Luckily the long term trend is UP.
@uwin1_on_the_wave Take a look at the investment that PLTR has made. Similar to traditional VC. If 1 out of 10 hits, it will move. Very strategic. E.g. BlackSky - image the benefits of this tech (all governments and industry) as we move further and further into the green world.
uwin1_on_the_wave profile picture
@Gravity404 Cool...you have identified a major catalyst
As per records from Dataroma.com, PLTR CEO sold stocks worth 140+ millions in last month. This is not one time sale but happening at regular basis. I understand selling some part of stocks for taking profit out but this makes me to believe CEO himself is skeptical about long term upside potential and cashing out rather than stay invested and make higher profit if he thinks company is doing well.
John Rhodes profile picture

I strongly advise you to read an article I wrote about this:


In short...

"In short, Alex Karp has a huge number of options. These options are "old" and apparently must be exercised now; I believe before the end of 2021. Furthermore, the selling is automatic, which seems to line up pretty well with the data I've captured above. In other words, Karp's selling isn't because he's lost faith in the company."

However, again, I encourage you to read my full article for greater clarity.

Have a good night.
@bhurakoi don't sweat the small stuff. If I may add, this is standard procedure for newly listed co's. All the insiders (management, employees, investors) need to roll their options out for stated reasons. Also, this group of ppl have been living on reduced pay in lieu of their SBC. I've read where Alex Karp never received a paycheck, so now it's his time to reap the harvest of the seeds he's sown.
@suds2you I totally agree, just because he’s liquidating shares doesn’t mean he doesn’t believe in the future of the company. I’d be liquidating some stock frequently. I don’t get why so many people are freaking out when management is selling some shares, they need liquidity to buy real estate, pay taxes, etc. Of course they’ll be occasionally selling shares
craftbrewinfo profile picture
I have some serous buying to do lol
Appreciate this article, particularly the discussion about PLTR LEAPS, which I’d been buying now and then. PLTR is 3rd largest holding behind BRKB and AAPL, in a portfolio that’s been creeping toward my first million for many years. Time to swap some of my index ETFs for more PLTR!
@howier take that chance...
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