The Top Dividend Growth stock model expands on my doctoral research analysis on multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) adding new complexities with these top picks. Research shows that the highest frequency of large price breakout moves is found among small cap stocks with low trading volumes offering no dividends and delivering higher than average risk levels.
The challenge with the Top Dividend & Growth model is to deliver a combination toward optimal total return with characteristics that typically reduce the frequency and size of price breakouts, but deliver more reliable growth factors for higher profitability longer term.
Returns to date on the MDA Growth & Dividend selection model not including large % dividends from all stocks:
The 1-year return of the October 2020 portfolio reached the end of the measurement period with +40.9% annual gains (not including dividends). Readers are free to buy/hold for the one-year measurement period of each portfolio, hold longer, or update your Growth & Dividend portfolios with newer selections. The list of top performing MDA Growth & Dividend stocks is in the table near the end of the article.
Each monthly selection portfolio consists of 5 stocks above a minimum $10 billion market cap, $2/share price, 500k average daily volume and a minimum 2% dividend yield. The population of this unique mega cap segment is approximately 330 stocks out of over 7,800 stocks across the US stock exchanges. While these stocks represent less than 5% of available stocks, their market cap exceeds $19 trillion out of the approximately $33 trillion (57.6%) of the US stock exchanges. Efforts are made to optimize total returns on the key MDA price growth factors (fundamental, technical, sentiment) for the best results under these large cap constraints with high priorities for dividend growth and dividend yield.
Score Overview of the Growth & Dividend Stocks for October
The factors shown above are not necessarily selection variables used in the MDA analysis and dividend algorithms for growth and strong total returns. These additional financial perspectives and reports are included to enhance your investment decisions for total returns.
|Nov-04-21 07:25AM||3 Dividend Aristocrats You Can Buy Today Motley Fool|
|Nov-02-21 04:30PM||Franklin Templeton Names Adele Taylor as SVP and Lead, Corporate Strategy and Corporate Development Business Wire|
|Nov-02-21 09:35AM||Company News for Nov 2, 2021 Zacks|
|Nov-01-21 05:32PM||Franklin Resources CEO Jenny Johnson offers career advice and a glimpse into the boardroom American City Business Journals|
|Nov-01-21 04:30PM||Franklin Resources, Inc. Q4 2021 Earnings Call Transcript Motley Fool|
|Nov-01-21 01:42PM||Why Franklin Resources Shares Are Soaring Today Motley Fool|
|Nov-01-21 01:07PM||Franklin's Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates, AUM Rises Y/Y Zacks|
Franklin Resources, Inc. is a publicly owned asset management holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the firm provides its services to individuals, institutions, pension plans, trusts, and partnerships. It launches equity, fixed income, balanced, and multi-asset mutual funds through its subsidiaries.
Source: Company resources
|Nov-06-21 09:25AM||Dow Jones Futures: How To Handle The Market Rally Now; Airbus, Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, Moderna, Peloton In Focus Investor's Business Daily|
|Nov-06-21 06:04AM||Will Moderna and Pfizer Continue to Lead After the COVID-19 Pandemic Ends? Motley Fool|
|Nov-05-21 09:01PM||Stocks Rally on a Wave of Good News. Next Stop: New Years. Barrons.com|
|Nov-05-21 08:57PM||Good Jobs Report Points to Continued Good Times for Stocks Barrons.com|
|Nov-05-21 07:09PM||Kellogg, Pfizer, Airbnb: Stocks That Defined the Week The Wall Street Journal|
Pfizer Inc. discovers, develops, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells biopharmaceutical products worldwide. It offers medicines and vaccines in various therapeutic areas, including cardiovascular metabolic and pain under the Eliquis, Chantix/Champix, and Premarin family brands; biologics, small molecules, immunotherapies, and biosimilars under the Ibrance, Xtandi, Sutent, Inlyta, Retacrit, Lorbrena, and Braftovi brands; and sterile injectable and anti-infective medicines under the Sulperazon, Medrol, Zithromax, Vfend, and Panzyga brands.
Source: Company resources
The two additional samples below are among the strongest selections across prior portfolios with continued strong conditions and dividends for high total returns. It's common that each set of monthly portfolio selections have a different sector composition and growth story based on events at that time.
For example, the October dividend portfolio is heavily weighted toward financials and energy, while the February selections were primarily consumer defensive/food production stocks. The inflationary trade supports further gains in financial and energy stocks to the year-end.
KLA Corporation - daily chart
HP, Inc. - daily chart
This section is a brief review of strong prior selections that have delivered on the long term growth forecast YTD. These prior portfolios are available in the list of published articles and complete stock selections are available in the members' area. From the start of the year across all the long term Growth & Dividend MDA selections, the following stocks have significantly outperformed on price alone, not including dividends.
The 2020 Year End Report Card for the Growth & Dividend MDA breakout stocks is available here: V&M Top Growth & Dividend MDA Breakouts: 2020 Year End Report Card
|Symbol||Company Name||Price||Return from Selection|
|(INFY)||Infosys Ltd. ADR||22.79||146.91%|
|(UMC)||United Microelectronics Corp.||10.79||125.26%|
|(TSM)||Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. Ltd.||117.80||118.80%|
|(AMP)||Ameriprise Financial, Inc.||305.24||117.92%|
|(TROW)||T. Rowe Price Group Inc.||221.07||91.19%|
|(LLY)||Eli Lilly And Co.||265.00||91.03%|
*Returns to date on the MDA Growth & Dividend selection model do not include large dividends from each stock:
These stocks continue a live forward-testing of the breakout selection algorithms from my doctoral research applied to large cap, strong dividend growth stocks. None of the returns listed above include the high dividend yields as part of the performance and would further increase total returns for each stock. These monthly top Growth & Dividend stocks are intended to deliver excellent long-term total return strategies leveraging key factors in the MDA breakout models used in the small cap weekly breakout selections.
These selections are being tracked on the V&M Dashboard Spreadsheet for members and enhancements will continue to optimize dividend, growth, and higher breakout frequency variables throughout the year.
All the very best to you!
JD Henning, PhD, MBA, CFE, CAMS
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