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Amazon: Looking At The Long Term

Dec. 02, 2021 11:34 PM ETAmazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)31 Comments
Icaria Capital profile picture
Icaria Capital


  • Highly complex situation in terms of logistical disruption, price increases in materials and wage inflation. Opportunity to expand competitive advantage in the long term.
  • Fall in margins due to investment mix, inflation and disruption.
  • Doubling the annual capex, a very important opportunity in the long term.

Amazon fulfillment center building in Las Vegas

4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images


Amazon's (NASDAQ:AMZN) results have been very interesting, and no doubt, reading between the lines and doing second-level thinking, we can find very striking points.

The guidance shows a very wide range; this is due

This article was written by

Icaria Capital profile picture
Institutional investor for more than 10 years. Focused on long-term investment ideas in companies with big moats, interesting valuations, and special situations.If you want to discover in-depth, interesting companies for the long term, this is the account you must follow.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of AMZN either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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Comments (31)

LasVegasInvestor profile picture
www.cnbc.com/... Very interesting video. Must watch for Amazon Investors.
@LasVegasInvestor I'm flabbergasted the size and magnitude of their purchases of containers, planes and vehicles so not to be caught in the logjams of inefficient ports and shipping companies.
Icaria Capital profile picture
@LasVegasInvestor thanks for the video
Bruce Wilds profile picture
It should not always be about money. Only after it has wrecked communities leaving many Americans jobless and retail stores sitting as giant empty shells might short-sighted consumers finally see the air of their way. Amazon is bad for America - it is that simple! For more on Amazon is not your friend read the following article.
Gary J is Rich on AMZN profile picture
@Bruce Wilds

Agree! Amazon is great for America and hundreds of thousands of small business 3rd party sellers. I know many rich ones.
@Bruce Wilds how is america bad for the economy? They pay $18/hr + benefits. My wife's dad is a small business owner, he has 90 employees, he pays $12/hr with no benefits. You want more people to work for small business owners like him who cant afford to pay what amazon pays?
No Guilt profile picture
@Bruce Wilds

If you don’t like it, don’t buy from it.

You aren’t mandated to buy off Amazon.
The writer of this article is Obviously NOT a third party seller on Amazon. In fact Amazon is NOT growing third party sellers at this time. In fact it is driving loads of excellent third party sellers away by its ever more restrictive and discriminatory policies and actions.

As far as bearing costs for third party sellers, who is kidding who? Third party costs have been going up and up with no compensation from Amazon.

Among points you left out is an interesting one. Third party sellers now more than ever, must compete against Amazon selling the exact same item and putting themselves in the preferred sales position on the Amazon site.

You made it appear that Amazon actually cares about its third party sellers. However, That is NOT the truth. In fact Amazon comes down hard on both their Largest Third Party Sellers as well as their Smallest Third Party Sellers for reasons that few if any can understand. The lawyers and the Bots now run Amazon sales and they are almost impossible to communicate with.

Finally, Seller Support on Amazon which used to be Outstanding, is now basically NON-EXISTENT.

I suggest the author become a seller before writing another article about Amazon that mentions how Third Party Sellers are treated.
@Hopeful17 bruh, buy some Amazon and be happy.
LasVegasInvestor profile picture
@Hopeful17 I am a 3. party seller on Amazon and 40% of my life saving is also in Amazon. The Machine can`t be stopped anymore and will dominate the world. What you say is true, but no seller can deliver their products in one day to everyone in USA, and customers want their stuff fast. So there is no way to compete against prime by using FEDEX, USPS or UPS. If you can`t beat them, join them = buy stock.
Icaria Capital profile picture
@Hopeful17 Hi, I'm only using the facts, 3rd party sellers grow on an annual or quarterly basis.
The Borg is overvalued.
@Tawm its at a lower p/s multiple than precovid. $2200 in feb 2020 at $280b in 2020 sales vs $3390 now on $460b+ on 2021 sales
@muskovite thanks for sharing that. perhaps I’m old-fashioned, but I’m always nervous using P/S as a metric.
Amazon is building a big base to launch to the next level.
Gary J is Rich on AMZN profile picture
We know all of this already. Try contacting investors relations at Amazon for some first hand research.
AMZN to power the Metaverse via cloud deal with META (FB).

LONG AMZN + LONG META (match made in heaven)
LasVegasInvestor profile picture
@X-Zed You hope for this or there are negotiations in this regard? Meta + AMD was made official already.
@LasVegasInvestor Hey, separate topic, but is there any local insight on the country music festival mass shooting event in 2019?
LasVegasInvestor profile picture
@Tawm They never found out any reason behind it. Most properly the guy was mentally ill.
Could you explain a bit about the price target of 4735, is it a target in a year, two years or even longer term?
@moonus whenever it reaches 😅
Icaria Capital profile picture
@moonus DCF valuation.
@moonus price target would be one year!
InvestInMETA profile picture
Long AMZN.

And long AAPL and GOOG.

Best names in the biz.
Long Amzn!
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