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AST SpaceMobile: Broadband For Wherever You Are, And For Wherever You Go

Dec. 03, 2021 11:13 AM ETAST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS)67 Comments
Dwight Baker profile picture
Dwight Baker
358 Followers

Summary

  • AST SpaceMobile seeks to bring high-speed broadband to everywhere at cost effective pricing.
  • SpaceMobile service uses low earth orbit satellites to connect to the typical smartphone with no special equipment, just like a cell tower does.
  • AST SpaceMobile has key strategic partners, such as American Tower. SpaceMobile plans to revenue share with mobile network operators, not compete with them.
  • AST SpaceMobile is a speculative investment with impressive upside if they succeed. Initial commercialization could start as early as the second half of 2022, or perhaps early in 2023.

Global connectivity concept with worldwide communication network connection lines around planet Earth viewed from space, satellite orbit, city lights in Europe, some elements from NASA

NicoElNino/iStock via Getty Images

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (NAS:NASDAQ:ASTS) is a satellite design and manufacturing company that plans to create a mobile broadband network in space through its SpaceMobile service. SpaceMobile intends to offer global cell service levels from 2G to

This article was written by

Dwight Baker profile picture
358 Followers
I am an individual investor with over 30 years experience trading stocks and ETF's. I have researched stocks in a wide range of areas such as telecoms, REIT's, manufacturing, and energy to name a few. I expect to supplement my retirement with income derived from stock trading and dividends. My current focus is steady dividend income balanced with high growth opportunities. Anything I write may be considered a first step toward due diligence but it is my personal opinion only. I strongly recommend consulting an experienced, registered and qualified investment advisor before making all investment decisions.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of ASTS either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Please note that I am not a financial advisor. The article should not be considered as a suggestion to buy or sell this or any other stocks. Consider this one source of a full range of due diligence you should undertake but is entirely my personal opinions. It is strongly recommended that you consult an experienced, qualified, and registered investment advisor before trading.

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Comments (67)

Nick Cox profile picture
SPACs are just a fraud on the unwary and inexperienced investor.They occur when a few unethical rich guys get into a room and create a business case for some interests who would never pass muster as an IPO as an IPO requires some substance and compliance with well established investment norms.The CNBC index on SPACs show what a dIsaster they have been for investors.
ASTS is a typical example of this ridiculous trend, just pie in the sky
B
@Nick Cox wrote: "SPACs are just a fraud on the unwary and inexperienced investor."

You may be right regarding SPACs in general. But, the technology behind ASTS is sound. I will hold and double down on this dip. Nothing in the investment analysis has changed. If you believed in ASTS at $10 then at $5 it is a gift. I don't see how you can claim ASTS as "pie in the sky", yet you praise TSLA. Both are speculative and ambitious ventures.
G
@BalticAmber you have to understand what ASTS does.
sadly, most people don't understand it including the author of this article claiming it is some kind of wide band satellite.
it is very risky. hit or miss. It has a good chance failing to do the trick: making a reliable phone call using a regular cell phone in area with no cellular signal.
Nick Cox profile picture
@BalticAmber
Well,I think Tesla has at least proved its products are more than just mere speculation while ASTS is very speculative but of course you may be right long-term.
If I understood it right from a survey on CNBC,I believe just 6 of converted SPACS from last year are in profit.
Nick Cox profile picture
Looks more and more like one more SPAC loser.The whole SPAC business is a joke at best and a fraud at worst,a way to get gullible investors into unspecified investments without having to do the due diligence and rigorous financial detailing that IPO's require.
D
@Nick Cox this is a broad market sell off of growth stocks. PayPal, BLOCK, Teledoc, etc.., as well as SPACS . Don’t buy into hyperbole
Nick Cox profile picture
@Dave0869
I agree it is a broad sell-off of growth stocks but I think the situation with SPACS is a worse one and the almost unanimous decline in SPACS value started some time before that of growth stocks.
Shepferg2 profile picture
I’m right in there with you at $9.50. I have been accumulating a fair number of space stocks lately. PL looks absolutely on sale right now, so I bought that and BKSY, which dropped 20% on Friday. Yes. These might be falling knives, but one of them is going to be a multi bagger for sure. This is just too important a space not to own a piece of it.
Dwight Baker profile picture
@Shepferg2 Agree, its hit or miss really, but if its a hit then just a better entry point right now.
settekr profile picture
@Dwight Baker Even better entry today sub-$7. I have a small speculative long ($8.30 cost basis) - are you still long? Any new news?
Dwight Baker profile picture
@settekr Honestly I sold, I needed to add more to another holding instead. But I do agree that if you want to try ASTS then this is an even better opportunity than before. It may just take time as they have delayed BW3.

I'm out right now, but certainly would give this another chance if it works out to do so for me. Good luck!
G
not a broadband play. not in any way compete with Starlink.

it is to fill coverage gaps of any cellular company. Helping companies like ATT. Verizon, T-Mobile. mainly phone calls, texts, maybe some low-speed data, in areas that are not covered by cellular companies. In terms of pop coverage, cellular companies reach 99% of people. but in land or water area coverage, plenty of places not covered, likely 80% or more.
m
@Go HCDIP YCBD.AP Logically, that dramatically limits their TAM - if it's cheaper to provide cell service to the "99%" with the present cell tower network. In 3rd world countries, the TAM is obviously larger, but then it's also far less able to pay.
B
@mslasky TAM is the all cellular subscribers.
too many people are not educated. you included. anyway, 99% populated covered. that is true. but the actual landmass area coverage is like 5%.

ocean: 99.9% not covered.
Alaska: 99.9% not covered.
look at California: maybe 85% not covered.

look at the world map, you will learn some.
People are living in real small area--cities, towns, and they are linked by road and highway.

Most cities, towns are covered. road are covered.

ASTS is just do one thing: let people make a call or text (or maybe check email, low data) in areas that have no cellular coverage.

then most stupid people would ask: why don't you do 5G and wireless internet?
that is why Starlink needs 10,000 small satellites. Even with 10,000 satellites, it is not possible to let satellites provide 5G type of data rate to a regular iPhone. There is not enough RF link budget. Not enough capacity.
anyway, it may be too hard to explain to you all.
m
@BUY HCDIP Either I've missed your point, or you've missed mine. The # of people (AKA potential subscribers) in the 99% of land area not covered is much smaller. The # of people in areas already covered by conventional service in the remainning 1% is very large. I wasn't referring to bandwidth. I have no idea what your IQ is, and have no desire to speculate.
LikesToLearn profile picture
I'm concerned about their cash burn -- any kind of hiccup or delay with BW3 and they will need to raise more money to finish their Phase 1 constellation. The risk/reward levels here are similar to being a VC.

It's a great point about the Nano business but it's not clear to me that the market cares about that part of the business and will value it appropriately. It will be very interesting to see if ASTS puts any focus on growing it.
Dwight Baker profile picture
@LikesToLearn Thanks and I agree. It's going to take a lot of capital, so its mostly a hit or miss. Nano is pretty insignificant compared to the big plan, but apparently it can be profitable on its own.
H
ASTS down to $7.6 after hour.

not sure what is going on there
B
@HCDIP Go The launch date for BW3 has been moved to summer of 2022. It was originally scheduled for end of March 2022. That is what is going on there.
G
@BalticAmber it will be $5 before it reaches $15. sell
B
@Go HCDIP YCBD.AP
I don't have much invested. I will probably buy the dip and lower my average cost. As others have mentioned, it is a binary bet. Either SpaceMobile will work, or it won't. I am still betting that it will work.
Nick Cox profile picture
Good article.
All the same I think that Starlink has a huge lead in this category.
I also suspect anything that comes to market via a SPAC!
Whether ASTS technology will work is anyone's guess.
It is perhaps an interesting speculative investment using money you can afford to lose.
Dwight Baker profile picture
@Nick Cox Thanks. I generally agree, but I think their partner relationships may add some credibility that some others may not have. Starlink is what it is, anything Musk is involved in has its own path paved ahead of it, it seems. For ASTS speculative is the operative word, but they could have something of significant value. American Tower seems to think so, and they should know more than most I think.
H
@Nick Cox ASTS has really nothing to do with StarLink.
StarLink is to provide a high-speed satellite data link to areas that cable/fiber can get to economically. "no cell phone"

ATT, Verizon, t- mobile are doing 5G---wireless high-speed data to "cell phone".

ASTS: satellite call or text to "Cell Phone" to fill whatever the gaps (Alaska, Siberia, rural mountains) that ATT etc. can't fill. that is why so many wireless operators have signed up. Of course, ASTS still needs to show it can do that (satellite to regular cell phone, not special phone).

it will be a process. not easy to do. can be done. its stock will have up and down. I think it would take minimum of 4 to 5 years to get it to work reliably.
Pete I profile picture
@Nick Cox Starlink requires special equipment to receive and transmit to the Starlink satellites for internet service, ASTS uses your regular phone to provide voice, text, and data coverage in partnership with traditional cellular service. That is not a competition. IF they are successful of course, but they seem on track.
Pete I profile picture
ASTS seeks in essence to put cell towers in orbit to cover areas where terrestrial towers are not. Using your regular phone you can achieve a connection for voice, texts, and data. So that is not comparable to Starlink since that service requires a receiver unit. That is how they are probably justifying the "no competition" claim.

Somebody needs to eat a snickers.
H
the author is obviously less educated about wireless telecom.

ASTS is not for broadband. it is for voice and text in areas not covered by the cell towers, replacing GSAT or iridium type of services but using the same cell phone as you would use in a city block.

you will be amazed how poor the STEM education level in America
Dwight Baker profile picture
@HCDIP Go I refer to the home page of their website. Broadband is the word they use.
H
@Dwight Baker don't believe every word they said. that is what analysts do.

if you just copy company propaganda, then why do you analyze it?

I am not against it. just being able to make calls and text would be great for ASTS. if it can successfully do that cost-effectively and with a regular cell phone, the stock would be $100.

SpaceX is shooting 40,000 satellites to do broadband. it can't do it with a regular cell phone. it must use a big "DISH" antenna.

ASTS would only have 20, 30, 60 satellites. how do you expect it to do broadband?

Son, use your brain to think.
Dwight Baker profile picture
@HCDIP Go Thanks for your perspective. Each person should do their own DD.
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