Entering text into the input field will update the search result below

Weekly Indicators: Changes Afoot

New Deal Democrat profile picture
New Deal Democrat


  • High frequency indicators can give us a nearly up-to-the-moment view of the economy.
  • The metrics are divided into long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators.
  • While all three time frames remain positive, there are changes affecting interest rates, the US$ and commodity prices.
  • Bond investors appear to be increasingly convinced that the Fed will be raising rates.
  • Meanwhile, commodity prices are roiled in conflicting directions, and a newly stronger US$ can negatively impact trade.

Changes Afoot

Keystone/Hulton Archive via Getty Images


I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly

This article was written by

New Deal Democrat profile picture
New Deal democrat As a professional who started an individual investor for almost 30 yeas ago, I quickly focused on economic cycles and the order in which they typically proceed. I have been writing about the economy for nearly 15 of those years, developing several alternate systems that include mid-cycle, long leading, short leading, coincident, lagging and long lagging indicators. I also focus particularly on their effects on average working and middle class Americans.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Recommended For You

Comments (9)

festivus400 profile picture
"when you start with data that has a long track record of being reliably leading (just, for example, the yield curve), and update it constantly, you have an effective check against confirmation bias"

Data is the foundation of critical analytical thinking.
Small Town Lawyer profile picture
Great job. As usual, excellent data summaries.
The above checklist out in a *seemingly* scientific manner. In my opinion this is deceptive and it’s positive implications for the short term and medium term generally favorable conditions are incorrect for the following reasons:

1. Huge uncertainty has been introduced in to the market in the last week especially, with the S&P and Nsadaq particularly shaky with a sharp downturn in the last week.

2. Because of (1) and absolutely *huge * hits in cryptocurrencies the last 2-4 weeks, the fear index is way up, according to one source the highest is has been since January of this year (2021).

3. John Hussman has warned of huge divergences in the market, the largest he has ever seen. Hussman, Charlie Munger, and Jeremy Grantham all feel that the market is absurdly overpriced, and according to Hussman even more overpriced than it was during the market collapse resulting in the Great Depression.

4. An article posted in Seeking Alpha claimed that the amount of option buying was huge and speculative. Prices of stock have been pushed up way above their earnings value by over optimistic option purchases, frequently made with low interest loans, way beyond their realistic values, based on more usual PE and PEG ratios. At some point it would seems there has to be reversion to the mean to bring back to earth stock values that have become absurdly and speculatively inflated. If the market performs like it has this last week for the next few weeks and months what will happen to all these people who have bought overpriced stocks and cryptocurrencies when the margin calls come in?

5. Inflation and gas and food prices are severe in many areas of the US.

6. It has been claimed that the logistical backlog in unloading ships is severe and will be made more severe by the Omnicon coronavirus variant. Within the roughly last month or so news sources said that there were something like 80 ships were backed up in the port of a Los Angeles. Again it has been alleged that small businesses are having difficulty obtaining their ordered Xmas inventories because of the backlog of unloaded ships.

7. The Government is caught between a rock and a hard place. With interest rates so low, supply shortages are resulting a huge inflation, unbearable by many citizens. If interest rates rise, marginal businesses will fail, unemployment will increase, and the huge amount of national debt that has accumulated over *several* past administrations will become so burdensome that the only way the Government will only be able to service its debt service its debt by increasing the money supply and erode the value of the currency and reflating the eco o my (as they have done from almost endless time, as have many prior empires and past civilizations).

Yes, I admit what I have written is not formally footnoted and sourced to specific publications with publication dates and authors. And true, I do to having a pessimistic temperament.

Hopefully I am wrong. But this is the scenario that I see. And all of the nice charts in the world that seem to carefully assess factors will not convince me otherwise. Well I guess the next four months will pretty much tell whether my or the New Deal Democrats is correctly. Frankly I think the nice checklist above is a *straw man*, not serious in nature and nothing more than that.
@Bardos of Illusory Appearances You’re measuring something very different. This is data, interpret it as you will.
@BeenHoldin how do you interpret it?
New Deal Democrat profile picture
@Bardos of Illusory Appearances As you yourself concede, “I admit what I have written is not formally footnoted and sourced to specific publications with publication dates and authors. And true, I do to having a pessimistic temperament.”

Question: do you follow the same metrics over time, or rather are the ones you have mentioned in your comment ones that you have only read or heard of in the past few months, but seem persuasive to you? I strongly suspect it is the latter, and that is exactly why my articles, such as the “Weekly high frequency indicators” are exactly the type of information you ought to read more often.

The giveaway to me is your point that begins, “John Hussman has warned . . . .”

How long have you read Hussman? Do yourself a favor, and google “John Hussman recession,” and you will see that he has predicted an imminent recession every year since 2009, and if memory serves correctly, all through the 2001-07 expansion as well (there was a user here who used to list all of his blown recession calls. Iirc there were about 30 of them, and that was over 5 years ago).

In other words, I suspect you have fallen into the trap of having a predisposition (“a pessimistic temperament”) and then found well-written articles that confirm that predisposition. Here’s a clue: there are legions of “well-written” articles that are utter trash, because the author starts with a conclusion and then works backward to amass supporting data.

By contrast, when you start with data that has a long track record of being reliably leading (just, for example, the yield curve), and update it constantly, you have an effective check against confirmation bias.

Most of the data I cite have reliable track records dating back decades, in some cases over 60 years; in a few cases over a century.

Could they be wrong now? Of course! But the odds are much better that they continue to be correct.

In conclusion, I encourage you to continue reading my posts, and compare their record with the outcome of the data you have cited.
Disagree with this article? Submit your own. To report a factual error in this article, . Your feedback matters to us!

Related Stocks

SymbolLast Price% Chg
LeaderShares® Activist Leaders® ETF
First Trust Active Factor Mid Cap ETF
First Trust Active Factor Small Cap ETF
Emles Made in America ETF
ARK Innovation ETF

Related Analysis

To ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.
Is this happening to you frequently? Please report it on our feedback forum.
If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh.