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Sentiment Speaks: I Expect 15-20% Returns For 2022


  • The current pullback may have begun sooner than I had initially expected.
  • Depending on the next "bounce" in the SPX, I may have to revise my pullback target.
  • I am still expecting a very bullish year in 2022.
  • This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard. Learn More »

Bull market, Financial and business concept

phive2015/iStock via Getty Images

This week, I am keeping my post simple, as I am really short on time.

For those that follow my analysis through the years, you would remember that I turned strongly bullish as the S&P 500


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This article was written by

Avi Gilburt profile picture

Avi Gilburt, CPA., is an accountant and lawyer by training and the founder of Elliot Wave Trader, where along with his team of analysts, he specializes in identifying the major turning points and market trends so you can invest more confidently while applying appropriate risk management.

Avi is the leader of the investing group The Market Pinball Wizard where they help members gain a more real-time understanding of where the market is likely heading. Features of the group include: daily S&P 500 directional analysis, intraweek metals analysis, weekly expanded analysis on the S&P 500, metals, USO, and USD, weekly live webinars where we walk you through the charts we are tracking, and community chat with direct access to Avi and his team of analysts to ask questions. Learn More.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Comments (308)

prudent 576 profile picture
Yes, low around 2nd quarter of 2023... I've raised cash this month.
EmilyGG profile picture
I read Avi's for long, decided to join his group this week, got a lots of useful info, so I bought heavy May QQQ calls before close today, I see market is at short term low now, will big gap up at open Friday morning, up big to close, thanks Avi!
Avi Gilburt profile picture

But, that is not what my analysis said!?!? You need to take time to learn a bit more about EW before you trade our analysis.
@EmilyGG which Friday ? :-)
c4dancer profile picture
@EmilyGG Read the introductory stuff and watch the videos for new members. Only paper trade for a while. He warns beginners daily about this. As with many members, I wish I had heeded those warnings. We think we know what we are doing, but we all have much to learn.

I have been in the service six months and I am only beginning to get an idea of how to make money trading the shorter term waves. I have to admit that I may still be wrong about that. Some really smart people might do it more quickly; an average investor might take longer.

Having said this, following his longer term projections is good advice for anybody. You get some in these articles; you'll get more at the service. He sometimes gives advice to deploy cash (buy stocks) or raise cash (sell stocks) both in the chat board and in his Wednesday morning videos. I believe that these are more for the medium to long term investor and you can probably successfully follow that advice without knowing a lot about Elliott Waves, and as for playing with real money, most beginners probably should limit their EWT-based trades to those matching this long-term advice and only paper trade the short-term stuff until they learn more about following Fibonacci Pinball.
You have a long way to go before your "prediction" will come true....
Avi Gilburt profile picture
@Hans Klaas

Let's get our bottom first . . and then we will see :)
@Avi Gilburt Thank you my friend, I hope you will be right. I wish you well.
Avi Gilburt profile picture
@Hans Klaas

It may go into the 2nd quarter of 2023 because of how long this downside has taken though
Diesel profile picture
Let's see if buying picks up in the second half of the year. It could still happen if we bottom in early summer.
With 4550 broken I guess we head below 4400. Does anyone know if Mr. Gilbert’s USO target changed to further downside as well?
@przem23 4700 to 4300 if my memory serves me right. Unless it changed since then.
Avi Gilburt profile picture

Folks, you are thinking one dimensionally. That is not really what I said in the update.
@Fero. I would watch 4480 for the bears and still 4760 for the bulls, nothing has changed unless one of those points are hit. Play the back and forth until one of them outlast the other. My thought is that 4760 might be the winner, but we’ll see.
Today Mr. Gilburt set upcoming resistance around 4,550. Premarket seems to suggest it wiil be hit today. Tomorrow would be decisive trading.
daltonb profile picture
@seagulljonathan S&P futures are indicating that this will be breached today ..... will it break back to 4400? That is the question. (Thin trading from today .... so expect exaggerated movements.)
@seagulljonathan Options expired out of the money last Friday.
Cruisenal profile picture
I see in todays post that Avi is saying 4550-4585 but if I recall, it was a week ago 4440-4485. Has this changed or is this a mistake on my part. Thanks for any updated information.
@Cruisenal this is for the next week not the past.
@Cruisenal - That is the support level now. It does change.
“Depending on the next "bounce" in the SPX, I may have to revise my pullback target.”

So what’s the outlook here and, secondly, why predict these moves within a specific year as this article and previous articles do? Is there some sort of “refresh” in the New Year that requires a revision of your calculations?
Jim Wallingford profile picture
Still a bearish tone according to the AAII survey. For the week ended 12/15 bearish outlook was 39.3% vs historical average of 30.5%. Survey is seen as a contra-indicator so looks like we're not in for a crash.
@Jim Wallingford We just finished up Op-Ex week for month of December. Looking back at year 2021, the worst week of each month seemed to be Op-Ex with just a few exceptions. Certainly this has been true the past 6 months in row especially. Now that we are past it, hopefully somewhat smooth sailing ahead until maybe Jan 2022 Op-Ex week
Jim Wallingford profile picture
The second run at 4744 has so far failed. So I guess we're headed to 4300-4350, close to an 8% drop from today. If that's the most likely outcome , then tight stops are in order.
@Jim Wallingford Yes, I was contemplating that path too!
Diesel profile picture
If SPX grows 15-20%, Nasdaq should add another 30%.
@Diesel or not. Each chart on his own.
@Diesel That is exactly the word "fomo"
@Diesel Hey, make it 60%...why not?
Avi, is this still valid?- www.marketwatch.com/...
Let the bear market begin for stocks, bonds, housing and crypto, as everyone is now in the pool and deeply invested….cash is at the lowest level and margin is at its high point….

Nasdaq 100 to test 14,500 level in weeks…?

Inflation nearing 45 year high, globally….?

Russia to invade Ukraine, as Covid-19 is killing thousands in Putin’s country….change the subject Putin will try….?
ilovefastgraphs profile picture
Last week, when the markets were super-bearish, Avi's article seems optimistic.
I'm pleasantly surprised that Avi proved to be omni prescient!
CambridgeClay profile picture
A B C ya at 4350! Happy Holidays!
18214212 profile picture
@Avi Gilburt

How do we know whether the rally so far from Friday's close is impulsive or corrective ? Is it too early to tell ?
Avi Gilburt profile picture

That is what we do in our service. . . . analyze the market. :)
200 points up from low on Friday to high today. Looks impulsive and at least 4800 by end of month.
yoipitydafool profile picture
Dead Cat Bounce today?
BlackNapkin123 profile picture
I’m doing the money dance …. What’s the label for this rally?
@BlackNapkin123 Santa rally.
yoipitydafool profile picture
If you look at the Feb 2021 tech correction, most of the quality companies rallied and came back within 6 months. I don't think I would sell now and lock in loss. I also would not back up the truck to buy this dip as there is too much uncertainty. Personally, I am waiting until December 15th to hear what the Fed says for sure. I do agree with Avi that 2022 market will be positive. I would be satisfied with + 10.00% gain a year in this market.
caperdory profile picture
Looks like an impulsive rally not the corrective one mentioned
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