88 December 10%+ Yield Dividend Dogs, And None Are Overpriced

Dec. 24, 2021 4:10 AM ETCYD, EGLE, ELP, FSUMF, GRIN, KNOP, PBR, PBR.A, QIWI, SCU, SPNT, STBBF, VALE, ZIM6 Comments13 Likes

Summary

  • Dividend dog 10%+ Yield December data are all sourced from YCharts. Unsustainable-dividends above 22% were discarded; others were deleted for infrequent-dividends. Not all have paid consistent annual-dividends.
  • Analyst top-ten target net-gain estimates from these 88 bargain-basement dogs 12/21/21 ranged 52.15%-107.45% from PBR, ELP, PBR.A, SPNT, EGLE, QIWI, KNOP, SCU, GRIN, and top pick, CYD per YCharts data.
  • Top-ten 10%+ Yield December firms, ZIM, VALE, EGLE, GRIN, STBBF, PBR, SPNT, ELP, PBR.A, and top dog, FSUMF ranged 19.19%-21.34% by Yield. Expect many dividend adjustments in coming months.
  • Top-ten 10%+ Yield December firms by broker-targets, SBSW, GNL, SPNT, EGLE, QIWI, KNOP, GRIN, SCU, EBR, and top target dog, CYD averaged 69.45% broker-estimated gains.
  • $5K invested 12/21/21 in the lowest-priced five 10%+ Yield December equities of ten by yield, showed 6.17% more net-gain than from $5K put in all ten.  The lower-priced bargain basement dividend dogs continued their lead by over half a length in December.
  • Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of The Dividend Dog Catcher get exclusive access to our model portfolio. Learn More »

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Foreword

A reader of August 2019's high-yield, low priced dividend dog list called it, "dangerous advice". Hence, this information is to be used at your own risk.

I have always advised that high dividends are a sure sign of high risk. Combine that signal with a low-price offer and you have the stuff of legends and horror stories. Especially in light of YCharts' declaration that YCharts allows a dividend yield to persist for 365 days after the most recent reported dividend if a dividend is cut. Therefore, a few line items you see calculated here could be totally inaccurate. (Most of the time YCharts withholds forward yield projections when a dividend is cut, however... but not always.)

These 88 November selected stocks reported total annual returns ranging from -52.2% to 377.62%. Any candidates this month showing yields greater than 22% and were removed because their dividends are the most likely to be cut or curtailed. I did nothing about Chinese based high yielders but China has announced a preference for home-grown investors and could ban Chinese corporations from international stock market listings.

Happy hunting, and beware of the numbers put up by the top ten by yield on this list of 88. In short, this is risky business. These are Dogs of the Low, not of the Dow. These dogcatcher metrics are set to snag the most unloved and unpopular curs as a contrarian stock selection strategy.

To learn which of these 88 are 'safer', find The Dividend Dogcatcher marketplace follow-up 'safer' 10%+ Yield December dividend stock article in the Seeking Alpha Marketplace after December 29.

Meanwhile all 88 stocks on this list show dividends from a $1K investment greater than their single share prices. Some investors find this condition to be an invitation to, at least, look closer.

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Brokers Calculated 52.15% To 107.45% Net Gains For The Top Ten 10%+ Yield Stocks As Of December 21, 2022

Six of these ten top-yield 10%+ Yield stocks (tinted in the list below) were among the top-ten gainers for the coming year, based on analyst 1-year targets. Thus, this forecast, as graded by Wall St. Brokers, was 60% accurate.

Dividends from $1000 invested in the highest-yielding stocks and the median of analyst-estimated one-year target prices, as reported by YCharts, created the 2021-22 data points for the estimates below. Note: one-year target prices from lone analysts were not applied (n/a). Ten estimated profit-generating trades to December 21, 2022 were:

Source: YCharts

China Yuchai International Ltd (CYD) netted $1,074.47 based on dividends plus the median of target estimates from two brokers, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 24% over the market as a whole.

Grindrod Shipping Holdings Ltd (GRIN) was projected to net $931.19 based on dividends plus the median of target estimates from two brokers, less broker fees. A Beta number was not available for GRIN.

Sculptor Capital Management Inc (SCU) was projected to net $914.12, based on dividends plus the median of target estimates from two brokers, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 41% over the market as a whole.

KNOT Offshore Partners LP (KNOP) was projected to net $881.60, based on dividends plus the median of target estimates from two brokers, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 28% over the market as a whole.

QIWI plc (QIWI) was projected to net $827.29, based on dividends plus the median of prices estimated by five analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 29% under the market as a whole.

Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE) was projected to net $797.72 based on dividends plus the median of target estimates from eight analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 29% over the market as a whole.

SiriusPoint Ltd (SPNT) was projected to net $789.25, based on dividends plus the median of target estimates from two analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 17% greater than the market as a whole.

Petroleo Brasileiro SA - Petrobras (PBR.A) was projected to net $704.41 based on dividends, plus the median of target estimates from seven analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 61% greater than the market as a whole.

Companhia Paranaense De Energia - COPEL (ELP) was projected to net $530.68 based on dividends plus the median of target estimates from two analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 44% under the market as a whole.

Petroleo Brasileiro SA - Petrobras (PBR) was projected to net $521.46, based on dividends plus the median of target estimates from thirteen analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 73% greater than the market as a whole.

The average net-gain in dividend and price was estimated at 79.72% on $10K invested as $1K in each of these ten stocks. This gain estimate was subject to average risk/volatility 4% less than the market as a whole.

Source: Open source dog art from dividenddogcatcher.com

The Dividend Dogs Rule

Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs".

50/88 Broker Price Target Upsides

Source: YCharts

50/88 10%+ Yield Top-Dogs By Yield

Source: YCharts

Actionable Conclusions (11-20) Top Ten 10%+ Yield December Stock Yields Ranged 19.2%-21.34%

Top ten 10%+ Yield dogs selected 12/21/21 by yield represented five of eleven Morningstar sectors.

First place was earned by the first of two basic materials stocks in the top ten, Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (OTCQX:FSUMF) [1] .The other materials member placed ninth, Vale SA (VALE) [9].

Second place was captured one of two energy stocks in the top ten, Petroleo Brasileiro SA - Petrobras, and the other energy representative listing from the same company placed fifth.

A single utilities representative placed third, Companhia Paranaense De Energia - COPEL [3], and a single financial services representative wrapped up fourth place, SiriusPoint Ltd [4].

Finally, four representatives from industrials, placed sixth through eighth, and tenth: STRABAG SE (OTCPK:STBBF) [6]; Grindrod Shipping Holdings Ltd [7]; Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc [8]; ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd (ZIM) [10], to complete the 10%+ Yield top ten for December, 2021-22.

Actionable Conclusions: (21-30) Ten 10%+ Yield Stocks Showed 33.4% To 92.84% Upsides To December 21, 2022 and (31) No Down-sider Hit A Negative Note.

Source:YCharts

To quantify top yield rankings, analyst median price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield metrics, analyst median price target estimates became another tool to dig out bargains.

Analysts Estimated A 6.17% Advantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced, Of Ten 10%+ Yield Dogs To December 21, 2022

Ten top 10%+ Yield dogs were culled by yield for this December update. Yield (dividend/price) results verified by Yahoo Finance did the ranking.

Source: YCharts

As noted above, top ten 10%+ Yield dogs selected 12/21/21 showing the highest dividend yields represented five of eleven sectors in the Morningstar scheme.

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Estimated 5 Lowest-Priced Of Top Ten Highest-Yield 10%+ Yield Dogs (31) Delivering 59.11% Vs. (32) 55.67% Net Gains From All Ten By December 21, 2022

Source: YCharts

$5000 invested as $1K in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten 10%+ Yield dogs collection was predicted by analyst 1-year targets to deliver 6.17% more net gain than $5,000 invested as $.5K in all ten. The seventh lowest priced, Grindrod Shipping Holdings Ltd, was projected by analysts to deliver the best net gain of 93.12%.

Source: YCharts

The five lowest-priced top 10%+ Yield stocks as of December 21 were: Companhia Paranaense De Energia - COPEL; SiriusPoint Ltd; Both representatives from Petroleo Brasileiro SA - Petrobras; Vale SA, with prices ranging from $5.33 to $14.02.

Five higher-priced >10%Yield dogs from December 21 were: Fortescue Metals Group; Grindrod Shipping Holdings Ltd; Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc; STRABAG SE; ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd, whose prices ranged from $14.19 to $52.12.

The distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 90% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.

The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

Afterword

Below is the listing (alphabetically by ticker symbol), of all 88 10%+ Yield stocks from YCharts as of 12/21/21.

88 10%+ Yield Dogs For December

Source: YCharts

Note: All 88 stocks on this list show dividends from a $1K investment greater than their single share prices. Some investors find this condition to be an invitation to buy or, at least, look closer.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your 10%Yield Priced dividend dog purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com; YCharts.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by YCharts. Open source dog art from dividenddogcatcher.com

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This article was written by

Fredrik Arnold profile picture
28.24K Followers
Simple, straightforward 7-step analysis that finds lucrative income stocks.
Fredrik Arnold is my pen name. In 2012 I retired from doing quality service analysis in Boston and moved to North Carolina in 2013, thence to Central Oregon in 2018. My fascination with capital preservation, long-term investments, and trading systems keeps me blogging for Seeking Alpha. My articles focus on dividend yields, analyst median 1 yr targets, free cash flow yields, and one-year total returns as stock trading indicators. These are essential tools for catching the most valuable dividend dogs. My dividend dogcatcher premium site in the Seeking Alpha Marketplace shows annual real-time trading results since 2015.
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Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

In addition my YCharts data supplier makes no warrants regarding their forward looking dividend accuracy. Here is their dividend yield statement: "2) We allow a dividend yield to persist for 365 days after the most recent reported dividend if a dividend is cut. Hence, this data should not be used for backtesting purposes. For true historical testing purposes, one would need the date the company announced a cut or increase in the dividend to get the proper expected dividend yield as of a given date."

"The forward yield won't catch changes as there is not an automated method for turning those announcements into that kind of data. A specific use case would require additional over-site after the screening had taken place to catch these instances. I wish there was an easier way, and I will submit feedback, but as of yet this has been how we've always done things for lack of a better method."

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