6 Buyable Reliable Retiree Dogs For January

Summary

• Kiplinger Investing periodically lists retirement tips. This 30 stock list is from two articles. One by Brian Bollinger, updated 5/7/21, and another by Deborah Yao, 4/30/21.
• The articles were titled '20 for 20 Retirement Years' and '10 Super-safe Dividend Stocks'.
• Those 30 select dividend stocks ranged 0.49% to 8.34% in annual yield and ranged -10.58% to 31.52% in annual price target downsides and upsides per brokers reported by YCharts 12/27/21.
• Top-ten reliable retiree dividend stocks, CVX, ALL, O, NNN, VZ,  OMC, ORI, ENB, BBY, & EPD boasted net projected gains from 12.27% to 38.48% for the New Year.
• $5k invested in the lowest-priced five of these top-yield reliable retirement dividend dogs showed 23.05% LESS net gain than from $5k invested in all ten. The big (higher-priced) reliable retirement dogs recovered the lead of this pack by two and a half lengths going into January.
• Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of The Dividend Dog Catcher get exclusive access to our model portfolio. Learn More »

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Foreword

This article is based on two Kiplinger investing articles aimed at retirees:

20 Dividend Stocks to Fund 20 Years of Retirement, (yielding roughly 4% or higher), updated 5/7/21, by Brian Bollinger, "...should fund at least 20 years of retirement, if not more. They have paid uninterrupted dividends for more than 20 consecutive years, appear to have secure payouts and have the potential to collectively grow... dividends to protect investors’ purchasing power."

10 Super-Safe Dividend Stocks by Deborah Yao, published 4/30/21, featured "every stock on this list earns the highest DIVCON rating of 5. We've further culled the list down to 10 stocks that offer a total dividend and buyback yield of at least 2%, and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios in the trailing 12 months that are below, or on par, with the broader market.”

Any collection of stocks is more clearly understood when subjected to yield-based (dog catcher) analysis, these Kiplinger reliable dividend stocks for retirees are perfect for the dogcatcher process. Here is the December 27 data for the 30 stocks in the Kiplinger-sourced collection.

The Ides of March 2020 plunge in the stock market took its toll, yet most of these retiree selections bounded back beyond broker targets.

The following six (as of December 27) continue to live up to the Dogcatcher ideal of delivering annual dividends from a $1K investment in excess of their single share prices: Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (EPD); Enbridge Inc (ENB); Pembina Pipeline Corp (PBA); Ennis, Inc (EBF); Old Republic International (ORI); Monmouth Real Estate Investment (MNR). Many investors regard this condition as a "look closer to maybe buy" signal.

To learn which of these six are 'safer' dividend dogs, migrate to my Dividend Dogcatcher marketplace here on the Alpha site after January 5th. (Click on the last bullet of the summary above). There you'll find a follow-up 'safer' Reliable Retiree dividend stock summary and also garner a look at all my postings. Get your free trial and roll out a subscription to my Dogcatcher Marketplace service.

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Analysts Estimated 12.27% To 38.48% Net Gains For Ten Top Reliable Retirement Dividend Dogs To January, 2023

Five of ten top Kiplinger reliable retirement stocks by yield were among the top ten gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year target prices. (They are tinted gray in the chart below). Thus, the yield-based forecast for these January dogs was graded by Wall St. Wizards as 50% accurate.

Estimated dividends from $1000 invested plus their aggregated one-year analyst median target prices, as reported by YCharts, composed the metrics for the projections below. Note: target prices by lone-analysts were not applied. Ten probable profit-generating trades projected to December 27, 2022 were:

Source: YCharts.com

Enterprise Products Partners LP was projected to net $384.80, based on the median of target price estimates from twenty-four analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees (if any). The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 37% more than the market as a whole.

Best Buy Co., Inc (BBY) was projected to net $333.40, based on dividends, plus the median of the target price estimates from twenty-two analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 56% over the market as a whole.

Enbridge Inc. was projected to net $308.80, based on dividends, plus median target price estimates from five analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 12% under the market as a whole.

Old Republic International Corp (ORI) was projected to net $254.50, based on dividends plus upside estimates from two analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 13% less than the market as a whole.

Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC) was projected to net $207.29, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from eleven analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 18% under the market as a whole.

Verizon Communications (VZ) was projected to net $173.76, based on a median of target price estimates from twenty-three analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 36% less than the market as a whole.

National Retail Properties, Inc. (NNN) was projected to net $138.39, based on the median of target price estimates from twelve analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 14% less than the market as a whole.

Realty Income Corp (O) was projected to net $135.45, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from eighteen analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 20% less than the market as a whole.

Allstate Corp (ALL) was projected to net $135.23, based on the median of target estimates from fifteen analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 15% under the market as a whole.

Chevron Corp (CVX) was projected to net $122.73 based on dividends, plus the median of target estimates from twenty-nine brokers, less transaction fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 29% greater than the market as a whole.

The average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 20.04% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten stocks. These gain estimates were subject to average risk/volatility 29% over the market as a whole.

Actionable Conclusion (11): (Bear Alert) Analysts Predicted Three Kiplinger Reliable Retirement Top Yield Dog To Show -3.13% To -7.85% Losses to January, 2023

The probable losing trades revealed by Y-Charts to 2023 were:

Source: YCharts.com

Procter & Gamble Co (PG) projected a loss of $31.53 based on its dividend and the median of target price estimates from twenty-two analysts including broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 56% less than the market as a whole.

Quest Diagnostics Inc (DGX) projected a loss of $46.30 based on its dividend and the median of target price estimates from fifteen analysts including broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility equal to the market as a whole.

Consolidated Edison, Inc. (ED) projected a loss of $78.46 based on its dividend and the median of target price estimates from sixteen analysts including broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 80% less than the market as a whole.

The average net loss in dividend and price was estimated at 5.18% on $3k invested as $1k in each of these three stocks. These loss estimates were subject to average risk/volatility 45% below the market as a whole.

The Dividend Dogs Rule

Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell. So, (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs".

22 Kiplinger ReliableRetirement Dividend Stocks Show January Target Gains

30 Kiplinger ReliableRetirement Dividend Stocks Anticipate Positive January Yields

Actionable Conclusions (11-20): 10 Top Kiplinger ReliableRetirement Dividend Stocks By Yield For January

Top ten January Reliable Retirement Dividend stocks represented five of eleven Morningstar sectors.

Four energy stocks occupied first through third and tenth places: Enterprise Products Partners LP [1], Enbridge Inc [2], Pembina Pipeline Corp [3], and Chevron Corp [10].

Fourth place went to the first of three real estate sector representatives, W.P. Carey Inc [4]. The others placed eighth and tenth, Universal Health Realty Income Trust (UHT) [8], and National Retail Properties Inc [10].

One lone industrials entity placed fifth, Ennis Inc [5], and sixth place was claimed by the lone utilities representative, Pinnacle West Capital Corp, (PNW) [6]

Finally a single communication services representative placed seventh, Verizon Communications Inc [7] to complete the reliable retirement top ten dividend dogs by yield for January.

Actionable Conclusions: (21-30) Ten Top Reliable Retirement Dividend Dogs Showed 8.76%-31.51% Upsides While (31) Seven Poor Down-siders Slump Into January

Source: YCharts.com

To quantify top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provide a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield metrics, analyst median target price estimates became another tool to dig out bargains.

Analysts Forecast A 23.45% Disadvantage For The 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced Of Top Ten Reliable Retirement Dividend Stocks Come January, 2023

Yield (dividend/price) results provided by YCharts sourced the ranking for these ten top reliable retirement dividend dogs.

Source: YCharts.com

As noted above, top ten Kiplinger reliable retirement dogs screened 12/27/21 showed the highest dividend yields and represented five of eleven in the Morningstar sector scheme.

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Predicted 5 Lowest-Priced Of The Top-Ten Highest-Yield Reliable Retirement Dividend Dogs (32) Delivering 11.23% Vs. (33) 14.67% Net Gains by All Ten Come January, 2023

Source: YCharts.com

$5000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten reliable retirement dividend kennel by yield were predicted by analyst 1-year targets to deliver 23.45% LESS gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all ten. The ninth lowest priced selection, Best Buy Co Inc, was projected to deliver the best net gain of 38.48%

Source: YCharts.com

The five lowest-priced top-yield Kiplinger most-reliable retiree dividend dogs as of December 27 prices were: Ennis Inc; Enterprise Products Partners LP; Old Republic International Corp; Enbridge Inc; National Retail Properties Inc, with prices ranging from $19.79 to $47.30.

Five higher-priced Kiplinger top yield reliable retirement dividend dogs as of December 27 were: Verizon Communications Inc; Realty Income Corp; Omnicom Group Inc; Best Buy Inc; Allstate Corp, whose prices ranged from $52.68 to $116.08.

The distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains, based on analyst targets, added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 90% accurate on the direction of change, and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.

The net-gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

Afterword

If somehow you missed the suggestion of the six stocks ripe for picking at the start of this article, here is a reprise of the list at the end:

Six Ripe for Picking

The 6 above (as of December 27) live up to the Dogcatcher ideal of having annual dividends from a $1K investment exceed their single share prices. Many investors regard this condition as a "look closer to maybe buy" signal.

To learn which of these half-dozen are 'safer' dividend dogs, follow the instructions in the last bullet point at the top of this article to click your way to my Dividend Dogcatcher marketplace. There, after January 6, you'll find a follow-up 'safer' Reliable Retiree dividend stock summary and get a free look at all my postings in the Seeking Alpha Marketplace. Get your free trial and start a subscription to my Dogcatcher Marketplace service.

Current vs Fair Prices

Source: YCharts.com

Since four of the top ten Reliable Retiree shares are now priced less than the annual dividends paid out from a $1K investment, the above charts compare those four plus six at current prices (top chart) with the fair pricing of all ten top dogs conforming to that ideal (middle chart). The dollar and percentage differences between current and fair prices are detailed in the bottom chart.

Kiplinger Retirees By Author

Source: Kiplinger

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your Retirement stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com; YCharts.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in YahooFinance. Open source dog art from dividenddogcatcher.com

Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.