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Sentiment Speaks: 2022 Can Be Your Best Year Ever


  • Starting with a clean slate in 2022, you can make it the best year you ever have in the market.
  • It's time to start focusing on what is truly important in the market.
  • If what you have been doing until now is not working, isn't it time to broaden your understanding of how the market truly works?
  • With the market likely going to provide us another buying opportunity in early 2022, you may want to set yourself up before we begin the next major rally to 5500SPX.
  • This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard. Learn More »

Bull market, Financial and business concept

phive2015/iStock via Getty Images

If you have followed me during the last decade that I have been writing on Seeking Alpha, you would know that we have made some calls that have seemed absolutely ridiculous at the time. But, nevertheless, the market followed the path we laid out


“It’s honestly like magic to me the way you’re able to predict moves in something I thought was completely unpredictable.”

"You have helped many, including myself, to change their lives for the better!"

“I'm in my 8th year at EWT. I tell you truthfully that I view EWT as the single greatest tool for markets and lifelong learning that I have ever found.”

"Seeing Avi call the turning points with my own eyes time and time again is very convincing."

“This is almost as good as printing money.....These guys are AMAZING


This article was written by

Avi Gilburt profile picture

Avi Gilburt, CPA., is an accountant and lawyer by training and the founder of Elliot Wave Trader, where along with his team of analysts, he specializes in identifying the major turning points and market trends so you can invest more confidently while applying appropriate risk management.

Avi is the leader of the investing group The Market Pinball Wizard where they help members gain a more real-time understanding of where the market is likely heading. Features of the group include: daily S&P 500 directional analysis, intraweek metals analysis, weekly expanded analysis on the S&P 500, metals, USO, and USD, weekly live webinars where we walk you through the charts we are tracking, and community chat with direct access to Avi and his team of analysts to ask questions. Learn More.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Comments (168)

Goverment debt - private sector assets for tve top 5% and that does not go under the madras it flows to assetprice inflation. Very simple however we have reached the point of hyperinflation and longterm rates must rise and then what? You have been extreamly right tip my hat but buying stocks for the sake of it? The only reason is to buy is money become zero very soon Carracas style? Long goldstocks and enery
Rhenshaw profile picture
I have noticed many here looking for definitives such as once we hit 4800 SP then 7-10% correction ect..this is not all how I see Avi’s work…it is fluid with probabilities based on what EWT provides. His analysis has been spot on for the way I invest (coming up on 1 year as a subscriber) and some of the most excellent guidance based on what the market provides. There is no crystal ball just like “there is no spoon Neo”. Thanks Avi!
Avi Gilburt profile picture

Thank you . . and my pleasure.
You can find the most expensive borrows here
Hey Avi, bear market doesn´t sound fun. I´ve grown used to getting high single digit or double digit market returns since ´09. Can´t it be avoided, evaded in the next few years?
Avi Gilburt profile picture

You can close your eyes. :)
lionrock profile picture
Sadly, one must agree that listening to the “financial news sources” is detrimental to one’s financial health. Appreciate your rigorous and objective analysis with little or no opinion.
DKnewb profile picture
@lionrock I have learned to treat financial news as a source to understand the slight of hand the big players (gs) are promoting. It's basic Shiney object distraction.
Avi Gilburt profile picture

Then why even bother pay attention to it?
mgarri4979 profile picture
Hi Avi- do you offer a free 2 week trial?
mgarri4979 profile picture
@Avi Gilburt
How do I pursue that ?
Avi, when the multi-decade recession starts, in general, what will you be investing in? Broadly speaking, where should people go long?
Avi Gilburt profile picture
I will be addressing planning with our members.
@Avi Gilburt You have made some great calls for sure. I'm just curious though in lieu of the recession prediction, did your system predict or minimize the damage of the 2008 sub prime fiasco? Bear in mind, I'm not a hater or a critic. I find your viewpoints very interesting. I've just always wondered if your system caught that massive downturn.
Avi Gilburt profile picture

Yes. But, I cannot back that up for you since I was not publicly providing analysis at that time.
BM Cashflow Detective profile picture
We are in the mature stages of a bull market, but not in the final stages.

"CB Leading Economic Index: Another Sharp Rise in November"


A bull market does not die of old age weakness but in the overflowing euphoria.

The Fear & Greed Index shows 61 points.


That is optimistic, but still far from a dangerous market euphoria.

S&P 500 earnings yield of 4.69% is still significantly higher than the benchmark 10-year Treasury note around 1.5%.



Means investors get better value by investing in the stock market than investing in 10-year treasury notes.

I agree that 2022 could be an even better year for the stock market.

Better to stay invested because the journey continues.
Avi Gilburt profile picture
@BM Cashflow Detective

Wait until we get back down to the 4400-4500SPX region . . people will not feel as confident about the bull market as they do at the highs.
BM Cashflow Detective profile picture
@Avi Gilburt


Each correction is just a confirmation of the currently stable bull market.

I take it as it comes and buy selectively so that it comes the way I want to take it.
@BM Cashflow Detective " bull market does not die of old age weakness but in the overflowing euphoria.
The Fear & Greed Index shows 61 points.

The Fear & Greed ind.was in an extreme teritory already, just a few months ago, then went very low - in thirties, maybe even in twenties for some time (I would have to check), now we are over 60 again.

I agree with you about how the bull market usually dies. But what I had been previously thinking about is how the sentiment indicators would move at the very end... probably one can't expect that they will change from max greed (let's say 95-100 for instance) to maximum fear (let's say 0-10 for instance) in just one day, what do you think?
Besides that I would point out that all of the analysis trying to predict future movement of the SPY are not of much use to me, given that I do not invest into SPY/SPX nor into its largest constituents; but other parts of the markets odten move much differently and independently of the SPX.
Dale Roberts profile picture
Yes, returns might match global growth projections and hit that first target with an 8%'ish gain.

But if we're positive I'd be more in the 15% plus gang. The over-excitement might continue.

U.S stocks just completed a double digit return hat trick (3 years in a row). There are often double digit years that follow.

From one of my recent posts ...

These 3-peat clusters span all the way back to the early 1940s-1950s and mid-1960s to the late 1990s and mid-2000s. The average total return for the third straight year of double-digit gains is 22.8%.

And here’s a surprise on U.S. stocks going on to deliver a 4-peat.

The S&P has registered a fourth straight year of positive double-digit returns four times since 1928. These include 1945 (+35.8 pct), 1952 (+18.2 pct), 1998 (+28.3 pct) and 1999 (+20.9 pct). The average: +25.8 pct.

Perhaps aka - when things are silly they stay silly, ha.

Good luck in 2022.

Avi Gilburt profile picture
@Dale Roberts

The issue I have with such statistics is that it does not take into account the market context . . so it is no different than guessing.
Dale Roberts profile picture
@Avi Gilburt Ah, but sentiment is at play in the above.

Avi Gilburt profile picture
@Dale Roberts

Sentiment is ALWAYS at play. But, unless you understand the context for the market, you are simply feeling around in the dark.
Avi, Happy New Year to you. Thanks for another article. I just posted something on Game of Trades on Youtube. And here's my comment, "Your (Game of trades) analysis is good but not necessarily useful. The market can stay in an overbought zone for a long, long time without much correction. Divergence upon divergence means nothing in a strong bullish market. I can only say that Avi Gilburt is the only technical analyst I will ever trust my money with. All others are just wannabes. His latest report indicates that SPX is about to rally to 4900/5100 before a 5 to 7% correction would take place. And after that, SPX will rally to 5500, preferably 6000 before this major bullish trend from the March 2009 low will end. One caveat, there could potentially be a blow up top as well (of course, he would let you know as well if and when the market gets to 6000) and that could take SPX to 8200. So, if I were you, I wouldn't be shorting the market anytime soon. Any correction now is an buying opportunity, and if you short the market you will definitely get burned. BTW, I don't get paid for endorsing Avi; I simply admire his works and he's been most accurate for as long as I've been following him. He can be reached at www.elliottwavetrader.net/... Lot of free stuff as well if you don't mind a few days late and is not a day trader.
Avi Gilburt profile picture
@Gann square of nine and hexagon

Thank you . . but I dont think we go as high as 5100 in this move up . . I think we are capped between 4960-5050, and I do not think we have a strong probability of seeing the upper end.

Also, my expectation is closer to a 7-10% pullback.

Lastly, my next major target is 5500 . . I think we get a bigger pullback before we get to 6000.

But, thank you for your support. :)
@Gann square of nine and hexagon I agree. As the market trend matures we see fewer corrections; recent examples being the US dollar (19980-85) and Japanese stocks (1975-1990).....things ended badly of course, but anyone who expected a correction before the real top lost heaps. Speculating on corrections at this stage is folly.
@Avi Gilburt your targets are all in line with what the forward options market is pricing and timing. And they have been for 18 months. It’s been a normal path since March 2020. Your work is some of the only unbiased work that is published that has repeatedly seen it. Blessings over the new year.
Diesel profile picture
Locked and loaded, ready for another great year in the stock market as well as Bitcoin & Ethereum.
amREADY profile picture
@Diesel Same. Except I am taking some selective profits to store up some dry powder for buying dips.
I am now a follower, but have not started a 15 day trial yet. Some basic questions based on my current holdings. 1. Do the Elliott Wave principals apply to preferred stocks? 2. CEFs & BDCs? 3. How many stocks in the DJ-S&P-Nasdaq does the StockWaves service track currently?
@Avi Gilburt
Thank you. I will continue to study/to do my due diligence!
Avi, if you and your team are anywhere close to analyzing 2022 as you have been in 2020 & 2021 then my hat is off to you all! You've really been on point! Have a great 2022!
EW Theory,
I do my EW on my own and have a 100 Percent gain since 3/20.
Why should I pay someone else to do it for me?
Avi Gilburt profile picture

Good luck to you as you know it all. lol
@Avi Gilburt I simply followed you with a change or two on SA.
Actually, you are the One That Knows it All!
Avi Gilburt profile picture

Thank you . . again, good luck to you.
Happy New Year to you Avi! Thank you for all the articles that you have provided to us on SA this past year. I don’t always agree with what you write, but boy do you ever challenge my thinking…and that’s a good thing.
Happy new year Avi, are STOCKWAVES and CRYPTOWAVES separate services or included in PBWIZ
Avi Gilburt profile picture

They are separate services.
richjoy403 profile picture
Thanks Avi -- Here's to your having a Happy, Healthy, and Prosperous 2022!

Assuming my notes are correct, today's is your first (and welcome) reference to SPX5500 since Nov 30th.

Avi Gilburt profile picture

My targets have never changed, as the market has been following through quite well.
Buddha1010 profile picture
What is EWT?
@Buddha1010 . it's Elliot Wave Theory. Click on Avi's above provided links for the six part series of analysis. That is a great starting point.
Thanks Avi…
Avi Gilburt profile picture

You are most welcome.
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