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NIO: Lot To Prove In 2022

Jan. 03, 2022 6:36 AM ETNIO Inc. (NIO)LI, TSLA, XPEV22 Comments
Bill Maurer profile picture
Bill Maurer


  • Q4 sets delivery record, but December is a bit sluggish.
  • Expectations coming down as ET7 still ramping.
  • Chinese EV subsidies to end in 2023.

NIO logo and the Nio"s user center, NIO House

Andy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images

Over the weekend, we received fourth quarter delivery results from Chinese electric vehicle company NIO (NYSE:NIO). While the company did set a new record for quarterly deliveries, the overall figures were hurt by

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Bill Maurer profile picture
I am a market enthusiast and part-time trader. I started writing for Seeking Alpha in 2011, and it has been a tremendous opportunity and learning experience. I have been interested in the markets since elementary school, and hope to pursue a career in the investment management industry. I have been active in the markets for several years, and am primarily focused on long/short equities. I hold a Bachelor of Science Degree from Lehigh University, where I double majored in Finance and Accounting, with a minor in History. My major track focused on Investments and Financial Analysis. While at Lehigh, I was the Head Portfolio Manager of the Investment Management Group, a student group that manages three portfolios, one long/short and two long only. I have had two internships, one a summer internship at a large bank, and another helping to manage the Lehigh University Endowment for nearly a year. Disclaimer: Bill reminds investors to always do their own due diligence on any investment, and to consult their own financial adviser or representative when necessary. Any material provided is intended as general information only, and should not be considered or relied upon as a formal investment recommendation.

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Comments (22)

NIO growth has slowed down because the current production capacity has been maxed out. The production capacity will more than double in 2022. The new subsidies policy will favorably affect NIO:
"Nio can also benefit from another provision laid out by the government. China's NEV subsidy policy dictates that models with a pre-subsidy price of over 300,000 yuan ($47,200) are not eligible for subsidies, except those that support battery swapping, CnEVPost said in another report."Source:
Bill Maurer profile picture

And yet they announced in May that production capacity was doubling, and they shut down in October to re-do the lines.
@Bill Maurer not a Nio fan
@Bill Maurer Tesla did the same line revision a couple of years ago and today we see the fruit of that temporary disruption.
NIO has done the same thing. The new line can serve all the current and future models with features placement for future upgrades; something that no car other than NIO offers.
Super Long NIO!
Jake Goldi profile picture
While you wrote and publish this bear report, NIO went up by 5 percent pre-market (8am on Jan 3, 2022) and their Q4 was actually just fine.
Bill Maurer profile picture
@Jake Goldberg

EV stocks are up because of Tesla. Nio December numbers were not good.
Luxury cars...breaking the ceiling and perception about Chinese quality...all in all they are doing very well. If they were selling cheapass cars and not selling..then would be a problem.
Next time see if SA will let you publish an article that just says: “I’m long XPEV and don’t understand that several pure EV players will all win at different market segments and price points. Therefore I’m bashing NIO without referencing their upcoming production capacity plans whatsoever. Further my main tactic is try to scare investors away simply because two incredibly well received sedans aren’t delivering quite yet.”

^^^ a lot less words than your article and you can try submitting it all the way up until March. I say you go for it!
Jake Goldi profile picture
@RandomKG well said! This is not the first time this user publishes bear report on EV makers. It's a trend.
Bill Maurer profile picture

I've discussed Nio's expansion plans multiple times before. Still waiting for them to get there, while Xpeng soars past them.
@Bill Maurer You are right that Q4 deliveries have been a bit disappointing.
However Nio has decided to invest significantly in its infrastructure they have build 778 Power Swap stations ww (260 in Q4) and installed 4,582 superchargers and destination chargers. They are building an ecosystem and investing in their future. In 2022, NIO will be delivering 3 new models and a second huge giga factory (NeoPark) will be operational.
Therefore yes probably they have underestimated the EV sales growth in China whoever 2022 (and later years) appear quite promising.
Obviously Xpeng may do very well as well. On the other end they compete in a different market segment and they are probably quietly sharing the market (Xpeng mass and Nio premium).
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