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Novavax: The Bull Has Pummeled The Bear 19 Times In A Row And Is Ready To Strike Again

Jan. 06, 2022 11:15 AM ETNovavax, Inc. (NVAX)MRNA, PFE, AZN, BNTX787 Comments
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Upside Research


  • In the last 10 months, the share price had 19 pullbacks of more than 10%. All 19 times people were in fear, uncertainty and doubt, yet the stock strongly rebounded.
  • Buying extra Novavax shares on those pullbacks and gradually selling small chunks after the price goes higher has had excellent results.
  • The main current fear is its manufacturing is very off track. I describe 7 reasons why it is on track, and will soon be producing ~200 million doses per month.
  • Novavax and its partners have 2.07 billion doses of orders, most of which are advance purchase agreements that are very hard to cancel, and give Novavax strong profit margins.
  • Just its 2022 Covid earnings plus its strong non-Covid pipeline justify a higher valuation. Also when including post-2022 Covid earnings, the valuation should be far higher.

UW Medicine Conducts Novavax COVID-19 Vaccine Clinical Trial

Karen Ducey/Getty Images News

In the last two weeks, the share price of Novavax (NASDAQ:NASDAQ:NVAX) has pulled back by 39% (from $236.5 on December 20 to ~$145 now) on irrational fears that their production is off track and that Omicron will mean little

This article was written by

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I search for companies that have strong fundamentals, but that are undervalued due to fear, so I can invest in them at a great price. I also search for companies that are overvalued due to greed that have weaknesses such as poor free cash flow or an unviable business model, so I can short them. As Warren Buffet recommends: buy fear and sell greed. When I find potential candidates, I research the daylights out of them and only choose the best opportunities. To give you an idea of some the stocks I’ve focused on, in the past I successfully shorted Twitter, GoPro, Garmin, TrueCar, FCX, Wayfair, Pandora and Transocean, and was successfully long Cisco, Expedia, Novavax, Goodyear Tire, Facebook, Apple, Celgene, BioNTech and Novocure. Many of those are no longer good shorts or longs. For example, as of November 2021, Apple and BioNTech are overvalued. My current favorite long stock is Novavax (NVAX). I was previously a consultant for executives at companies such as Fidelity Investments and Google, including the Vice-president of Sales at Google. Prior to that I owned and operated two retail stores that I sold, and before that I was a journalist. I’ve been investing for 27 years in stocks, bonds, commodities and options. I spend a lot of my free time researching investments and donate at least half of the gains to charity.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of NVAX, PFE either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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