Forget A Stock Market Crash, The Bond Market May Collapse First: Sell TLT

Paul Franke profile picture
Paul Franke


  • Long-term U.S. government bonds are completely mispriced vs. rising inflation today.
  • This disconnect will not be solved overnight, even if COVID-19 pandemic supply chain issues disappear quickly in 2022.
  • Far greater interest rates to match stubbornly high inflation may be the only way to stave off a U.S. currency crisis soon.
  • Long-bond ETFs like TLT should be sold and avoided, until inflation cools markedly, the stock market crashes and/or consumer spending falls substantially to better balance with constrained supply.

Stock Exchange Market Is Crashing

MicroStockHub/iStock via Getty Images

I have been growing increasingly bearish and pessimistic about the outlook for U.S. interest rates and the bond market generally since the middle of 2020. The extend and pretend exercise of low interest rates and record rates

Jamie Dimon, CEO, JPMorgan Chase

JPMorgan Chase Website

Jeremy Siegel, Wharton Professor

University of Pennsylvania - Wharton Website

Steve Hanke, Professor of Applied Economics, Johns Hopkins University

January 12th 2022 Kitco Interview

20-year treasury rate


M2 - Money Supply Growth

St. Louis FED M2

Money Supply Growth

St. Louis FED M2

Rising Energy Prices

Skyrocketing Real Estate prices


Stock Market Wealth Machine

Highest Labor Wage Gains Since 1979


TLT ETF chart

This article was written by

Paul Franke profile picture
Nationally ranked stock picker for 30 years. Victory Formation and Bottom Fishing Club quant-sort pioneer.....Paul Franke is a private investor and speculator with 36 years of trading experience. Mr. Franke was Editor and Publisher of the Maverick Investor® newsletter during the 1990s, widely quoted by CNBC®, Barron’s®, the Washington Post® and Investor’s Business Daily®. Paul was consistently ranked among top investment advisors nationally for stock market and commodity macro views by Timer Digest® during the 1990s. Mr. Franke was ranked #1 in the Motley Fool® CAPS stock picking contest during parts of 2008 and 2009, out of 60,000+ portfolios. Mr. Franke was Director of Research at Quantemonics Investing® from 2010-13, running several model portfolios on the mirror platform (including the least volatile, lowest beta, fully-invested equity portfolio on the site). As of January 2023, he was ranked in the Top 5% of bloggers by TipRanks® for stock picking performance on positions held one year. A contrarian stock picking style, along with daily algorithm analysis of fundamental and technical data have been developed into a system for finding stocks, named the “Victory Formation.” Supply/demand imbalances signaled by specific stock price and volume movements are a critical part of this formula for success. Mr. Franke suggests investors use 10% or 20% stop-loss levels on individual choices and a diversified approach of owning at least 50 well positioned favorites to achieve regular stock market outperformance. The short sale of securities in overvalued, weak momentum stocks as pair trades and hedges is also a part of the Victory Formation long/short portfolio design. "Bottom Fishing Club" articles focus on deep-value candidates or stocks experiencing a major reversal in technical momentum to the upside. "Volume Breakout Report" articles discuss positive trend changes backed by strong price and volume trading action.

Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: This writing is for informational purposes only. All opinions expressed herein are not investment recommendations, and are not meant to be relied upon in investment decisions. The author is not acting in an investment advisor capacity and is not a registered investment advisor. The author recommends investors consult a qualified investment advisor before making any trade. This article is not an investment research report, but an opinion written at a point in time. The author's opinions expressed herein address only a small cross-section of data related to an investment in securities mentioned. Any analysis presented is based on incomplete information, and is limited in scope and accuracy. The information and data in this article are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but their accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Any and all opinions, estimates, and conclusions are based on the author's best judgment at the time of publication, and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

Recommended For You

Comments (152)

To ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.
Is this happening to you frequently? Please report it on our feedback forum.
If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh.