Short-Term Forecast For First Half 2022: Expansion Continues

New Deal Democrat profile picture
New Deal Democrat


  • The biggest mistake most forecasters make is to simply extrapolate current trends into the future, thereby missing turning points.
  • Several indexes of short-term indicators have existed for many decades with excellent track records. The most accurate forecast is to make use of them.
  • Almost all components making up those indexes continued positive during the second half of 2021.
  • Since they forecast six to eight months ahead, this means that the current expansion should continue through mid-year.

Coming Soon Ripped Paper Concept

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At the outset of every year and usually after mid-year, I lay out both short- and long-term forecasts. This is my short-term forecast. The long-term forecast will follow in a separate post after GDP is reported next week.

Real GDP


Coincident indicators - industrial production, jobs, real income, and real sales


Index of Leading Indicators

Advisor Perspectives

Short term Index leading indicators


ISM new orders

University of Michigan consumer Sentiment

This article was written by

New Deal Democrat profile picture
New Deal democrat As a professional who started an individual investor for almost 30 yeas ago, I quickly focused on economic cycles and the order in which they typically proceed. I have been writing about the economy for nearly 15 of those years, developing several alternate systems that include mid-cycle, long leading, short leading, coincident, lagging and long lagging indicators. I also focus particularly on their effects on average working and middle class Americans.

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