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My $366k 28 Stock Portfolio Goes Through Some Massive Upgrades As I Play For Volatility Upside In February

Trent Welsh profile picture
Trent Welsh


  • My portfolio, built specifically for my retirement ~20+ years from now, experiences some major shifts as I play for upside in oil and former market darlings.
  • Making monthly contributions, even though they seem small at the time, makes all the difference in the world over time in helping create a valuable retirement egg.
  • A portfolio built for individual investors to outperform the majority of money managers through diversity and risk with the goal to be worth at least $5-$7 million in retirement.

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It is my firm belief that 80% of money managers can't outperform the S&P 500 index over time due primarily to the fees they charge their clients. Each and every individual person intent on having the happiest retirement

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Trent Welsh profile picture
B.S. Psychology University of Missouri-Columbia MBA University of Missouri-Columbia Full time investor looking to capitalize on market overreactions and looking for value where others see nothing but wreckage. Long term buys and short term trades to build wealth.Investing Better Than A Money Manager: The Rise Of Retail Investing - By Trent WelshI have an investing book with the title above on Amazon written for beginning retail investors looking to set up a self-directed portfolio with their IRA's, 401k's, or other retirement or trading accounts. It details how to pick and choose stocks amidst the different sectors and how to figure out how much in each sector an investor should have to help achieve diversification.Please take a look at it and let me know your thoughts. Thanks and Best of luck to all :).

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of GIS, PG, PEP, PBR, USO, HAL, GBTC, HSBC, ARWR, PFE, MDT, SMMT, J, SPCE, CLF, DUK, QCOM, VMW, DELL, RBLX, FB, DIS, GOOGL, WWE, DKNG, TSCO, RIVN, AMT either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Comments (39)

Chris Lau profile picture
My rule for every stock owned is 4 times a year of research.

I wouldn't have removed Apple. True AR. It's killed FB, thus FB will lag. Failing platform.

RBLX has ugly graphics. The child labor is an ongoing risk.

Do you have any ETFs? I want passive holdings and am watching 10.
Trent Welsh profile picture
@Chris Lau Yea.. Definitely hard to sell Apple but think over time risk/reward skews Meta's direction. Only time will tell that tale. Don't care about past performance overly much. Minecraft had ugly graphics also and was and is still a phenomenon. Don't underestimate stuff like that as it could surprise.

ETF's are more of a recent thing for me since the start of the Russia/Ukraine war or whatever you want to call it. Bought $USO or U.S. oil fund last month about $20k worth and here a few days ago in March I just bought about $10k $WEAT in one of the main wheat ETF's.

Think even if the war ended today wheat and oil still both have significant upside from the massive disruption already encountered in the market much less if the war escalates in any way or if China gets involved in any geopolitics. Best of luck.
bengalesq profile picture
Odd lack of overlap but thanks tons for the read.
Trent Welsh profile picture
@bengalesq Thanks for reading. :). The goal is a decent level of diversification while taking shots on specific stocks and sectors for outperformance over the coming years/decades. I believe I can find winners in every sector and my goal is to find them in an ever changing market :).
Preferred Research profile picture
The PE of your portfolio is much higher than that of the S&P 500. Even J, your industrial holding has a PE of 53. Many of your companies do not have earnings and may never have earnings. Bitcoin a financial?
Trent Welsh profile picture
@Preferred Research I see Bitcoin as a possible solution to several future financial issues so that's why I stick it there

In this market its risk on for me as I want to try and win the volatility surge. My energy sector is usually like 2%-3% but now almost 11% etc. I'm playing for 20 years out also, not this years performance though I want to beat the $SPY every year.
You own too many stocks for 366k and are unlikely to beat index funds long term.
Trent Welsh profile picture
@FeralHamster Challenge accepted !!
My portfolio is up +3.56% YTD...I made +0.3% today while market was down -1.55% but I am just a redneck retail investor. I did a major revamp in December after suffering losses in growth stocks during Nov/Dec, switching to almost ALL dividend stocks with low p/e and low debt that recently increased their capacity (e.g. bought more ships). I then did a large amount of tweaking in Jan. and I stopped listening to "experts" telling me to hold on to losing equities because I was "still receiving a dividend" and I shouldn't "lock in losses". I did lateral transfers in to other dividend plays that were not losing equity value. I demand equity stability as well as dividends otherwise I sell it, lick my wounds and move the investment elsewhere. Fwiw, I am bearish on real estate.
Trent Welsh profile picture
@mrbuseco2 I made more than 0.3% today also. Look at $GBTC, $SMMT, and $USO. Every day is a different day and I'm just an ordinary retail investor as well. No pay me for advice here. Just information others can use or ignore as they please. Shrug. Best of luck.
@Trent Welsh Likewise. I am in GBTC in a side portfolio for "gambling", I am betting they receive SEC permission to convert to an ETF, regardless they popped up 6% in the past few days. The other stocks in my gambling portfolio are LAC, SARK, and PNNT, though PNNT is a dividend play but rumored to be at risk of cutting dividend. Also 4% in BTC directly so a good past few days there too. Your SMMT does not look good from my perusing the numbers, I would avoid but knock yourself out. I am in oil and gas through several companies directly and receive dividend, not USO doen't excite me either. Cut out the middle man, they have a expenses.
Trent Welsh profile picture
@mrbuseco2 Nod... $SMMT is a shot in the dark. Not recommended unless you have a small position and like dart throws. Will transition from USO to a dividend play when I think the market craziness is finally ready to level off which I don't see happening for awhile. $USO up 5.01% today and $XLE up 2.29%. Going for the crazy outperformance volatility brings to the table during these crazy times.
SteveG2020 profile picture
Need more dividend stocks my friend.
Trent Welsh profile picture
@SteveG2020 Had tons of Petrobras all year but sold for USO for now. Have had AT&T in the past but tired of that baloney. Had Global ship lease etc with marvelous dividends for most of last year but shipping rates might have peaked so sold that. Will get more Petrobras in the future but very dividend light for now. Always on the lookout for good dividend plays.
Trent Welsh profile picture
@henry133 For sure not the worst idea. Energy up to like 11% of my portfolio when usual goal is like 3% but might be room for more in this market. Not a bad idea for sure.
Trent36 profile picture
Great write up and detail oriented article. The only stock I would add is AMZN, imo. We are still in the early stages of the move to the cloud and they are the current leader in the space. You have Google who is top 3, so either way your covered.
Trent Welsh profile picture
@Trent36 Have had Amazon in the past. Recently have preferred Baba or Meli for Brazil or china amazon for the international exposure. I prefer that switch and load up on the other FAANG stocks. Have had Amazon in the past but like Meli and Baba more overall recently as amazon has really underperformed for the last one or two years which was fine by me as I didn't own it then.
Trent36 profile picture
@Trent Welsh I'm avoiding Baba because of the x factor known as the Chinese government. I have a close eye on Meli and its on my watchlist. Very interesting company.
Trent Welsh profile picture
@Trent36 I sold my baba in February because of the China X factor. MELI or AMZN might be in my near future again.
Trent Welsh profile picture
Check out what Summit Therapeutics $SMMT is doing. Been an amazing past week and up another 15% today at this point. Just jumped into my top 10 individual stocks looking like as today is almost done. No news yet but looks like incoming news on ridinilazole or maybe an upcoming partnership or other M&A action after they postponed their rights offering and put an M&A blurb in their notice. You have been warned :). Best of luck.
FirstFIREWealth profile picture
I have $985K retirement with 750K GBTC. 3.5 bitcoins, 655k Huh Token, 9B Bitgert BRISE Token, 5 ETH, 500M Shibs, 15k emergency fund with Marcus by Goldman Sachs, 1000 ADA, 1000 SOL.

Very rich
Trent Welsh profile picture
@FirstFIREWealth Nice.. talk about taking a shot :). Love bitcoin as well as my largest holding but don't have your holdings for sure :). Thinking your yacht will be a little bigger than mine unless you are retiring tomorrow :). Go big or go home. Best of luck :).
vireoman profile picture
I share your enthusiasm for FB and its future prospects, which is why I added more shares today. However, DKNG, ARWR, and RBLX are growth stocks, not "deep value," and have modest to zero FCF rather than anything approaching "tremendous."
Trent Welsh profile picture
@vireoman My portfolio is meant to have a decent amount of diversification so its not all the same stocks. Value, Growth, Earnings, Sales, 10 year stories and this month stories. Lots of individual stocks and mutual funds and spattering of bonds. Diversify for a nice retirement egg no matter what but take shots when opportunity presents itself.
Shookmeister profile picture
For a 20 year + retirement horizon, looks a lot like trying to time the market.
Trent Welsh profile picture
@Shookmeister If you want to retire rich you need to take risk. If you want to retire with a nice egg buy index funds. I'm going for rich personally but diversified enough that I still end with a nice egg regardless. But taking my shots especially in crazy times.
@Trent Welsh "If you want to retire rich you need to take risk."
Or, you can simply save at a good rate and employ a solid dividend growth strategy, reinvesting dividends, with minimal trading/market timing. Probably the opposite of taking risk.
Trent Welsh profile picture
@Lobeta I think you and I have different ideas on what "rich" means :).
InvestInMETA profile picture
28 stocks is about 18 more than I care to manage...
secorewb profile picture
@jgoldston0 I got eleven and one is about to go.
I don't time the market but invest in major trends. If at some point I am in 50-75% cash, I am just waiting.
Trent Welsh profile picture
@jgoldston0 Yea. My top 10 stocks are like half of my total portfolio including mutual funds and bonds and all my other stocks. So definitely have that core you love but the other half of my funds go to mutual funds and a bunch of other less conviction plays. Best thing about the market is you can play the game the way you want and there is no wrong way. Just different results at the end of the day which no one knows for sure until you reach that finish line.
InvestInMETA profile picture
@secorewb Care to share your holdings? Always interested in what people who trim the market to their top 10 are buying.
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