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Where Will Alibaba Stock Be In 2025? What Investors Should Consider


  • Alibaba's Q3 FY 2022 financial performance was mixed, after considering both lackluster revenue growth for specific segments and the increase in new users.
  • Alibaba's 2025 outlook is dependent on its success in delivering ARPU growth for the company's China commerce business and diversifying its client base for its cloud business.
  • The key medium-term catalysts for BABA are potential spin-offs and a more favorable regulatory environment for Chinese internet companies.
  • I still keep a Hold rating for Alibaba's shares, considering its expected investment return and 2025 outlook.
  • Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Asia Value & Moat Stocks. Learn More »

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The Value Pendulum profile picture
Asia Value & Moat Stocks is a research service for value investors searching for attractive Asia-listed investment opportunities  with a huge gap between price and intrinsic value, leaning towards both deep value balance sheet bargains (i.e. buying assets at a discount e.g. net cash stocks, net-nets, low P/B stocks, sum-of-the-parts discounts) and wide moat stocks (i.e. buying earnings power at a discount in great companies like "Magic Formula" stocks, high quality businesses, hidden champions and wide moat compounders).

Those who believe that the pendulum will move in one direction forever or reside at an extreme forever eventually will lose huge sums. Those who understand the pendulum's behavior can benefit enormously. ~ Howard Marks

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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Comments (39)

EliasMouawad profile picture
Very realistic article. BABA is due for a decent recovery. But new fears of recession, high inflation and geopolitical tensions are weighing down.
charlie mungeezy will be rolling in his grave!
05 Mar. 2022
Speculative nature. Never, no thanks.
dieuwer profile picture
"Where Will Alibaba Stock Be In 2025?"

Delisted from every Western stock exchange.
PE is a very crude valuation for stocks like Baba. Much better is ev/ebtida a thisis bellow 9, not to mention the EV/FCF of 11. Whe 10% growth is added is more or less the bottom line for Baba.
Forget Munger...anyone seen Jackie Ma?
With BABA and other Chinese stocks you have no control and also no real ownership. You only own a share of a legal construct in the Cayman Islands which in reality has no control over the Chinese subsidiary. You cannot compare owning these stocks to stock ownership in unregulated economies with accessible jurisdiction. This means one cannot apply normal valuation metrics. I have colleagues working in management of foreign enterprises in China and they told me to get the hell out because the CCP is going after BABA & Co and everybody in China knows it. Based on this good advice i sold my position at a 40% loss and good riddance, stock has dropped 30% since and I bet it will only get worse from here… But hey if you think this is great value and no risk no reward I say go for it, to each his own, maybe I will applaud your wisdom in 2025…
Greenhorn Investor profile picture
Thank you for the article
04 Mar. 2022
I did the analysis and began buyinh (before Munger.) Of course now my position have dropped 30%+ since I bought them. But the analysis and general support was so strong, I am sticking with it. I also bought BIDU around the same time. Together they make up about 5% of my primary portfolio. With the outlook that good, it's no guts no glory for me. Also having studied AMZN's early years, there was a long period of bad stock action (as with most eq). But a lot of good things going on internally.
BABA will be soemwhere between 100-300$ in 2025 , BABA is the joke of the decade
scottiebumich profile picture
@manuvns why is it a joke? Revenues and owner's income are increasing. The business is great. I think you mean Alibaba "stock" is a joke of the decade. I agree. But it depends on which side of the joke you are on. I will be on the right side and am acquiring the stock hand over fist. Started buying at $160, purchased on the way up to $210, and now all the way down to $100. Current allocation is 12.5% of portfolio. Will continue to buy to keep allocation at 12.5% (though original cost is >> greater).
matratra profile picture
BaBa Hold it.
Surely you jest. 2025? How bout the next 25 minutes?
12x PE what a joke what is this a grocery store? Even cvs is trading 18x. Let's at least be reasonable and go with 25x for a price of $281. Still well below all American companies. A Reduction in investments would increase earning significantly as would a turnaround in stocks booth investment gains as well.. I would be utterly shocked blown away if baba wasn't $250 by 25'.
@Diesel333 He explained in the article. 12 PE for a slow growth
@TastyLaksa 12 PE is for no growth, not slow growth. I don’t own BABA, but this thing looks cheap here. The market was wrong to value it at $300 (according to some), but now we are supposed to believe the market is spot on valuing it at $100 LOL. So short term the market cut it into 1/3rd and it’s still dropping. How bad is this market at finding fair value?
@Diesel333 The market is a voting machine, and right now the market is saying your rant is so silly
I have averaged down and this is by far my largest "bag-holding" position. But here's something that people don't consider on SA. I'm 41, I keep adding, and eventually my dollar cost will be low, and I suspect it will grow and become a decent hegemonic Asian Amazon over the years.

That takes belief when the damn company is on the operating table.

I'm a bear on other stocks, so I get it--the VIE, the interventions, the disruptors. Eyes Wide Open.

But if it takes off around the time I retire, I will be happy.

That's my time frame
@cleanenergytrader Slow clap comeback. Anyhoo... born in 1980, so I'm not a boomer. But good try
@dmzporter I'm 39 turning 40 and doing the same :P I just put a buy order for $100 but the bears haven't been bearish enough these few days
scottiebumich profile picture
@scottiebumich because the stock price is falling or because the company is gonna go out of business? Or you just don't trust China but you trust overpriced USA stocks that have been manipulated to go up by the fed?
@scottiebumich the stock or the article?
caaaad profile picture
@Djevans I agree, It’s all garbage
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