Air Transport Group Delivering On At Least Some Of Its Potential

Stephen Simpson profile picture
Stephen Simpson


  • Air Transport posted better than expected Q4'21 results, including 21% revenue growth and 27% adjusted EBITDA growth, and guided to a substantially higher '22 EBITDA target.
  • Management continues to invest in fleet expansion, with 80 conversion slots locked up through 2026 and roughly a dozen new planes coming into the business next year.
  • Reported free cash flow is low, but this is largely driven by the company's growth plans; structural free cash flow (excluding growth capex) is quite robust and funds the growth.
  • Long-term revenue growth of 8% and FCF growth of 11% can support a fair value in the high $30s.

Empty Airplane using for Cargo

byakkaya/iStock via Getty Images

The arrival was a little delayed, but it looks like Air Transport Group (NASDAQ:ATSG) is finally getting some of the credit I think it deserves for the quality freighter leasing business it has been building for several years. While

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Stephen Simpson profile picture
Stephen Simpson is a freelance financial writer and investor. Spent close to 15 years on the Street (sell-side, buy-side, equities, bonds); now a semi-retired raccoon rancher. That last part isn't entirely true. Probably.

Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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