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An Important Chart

Brian Gilmartin, CFA profile picture
Brian Gilmartin, CFA


  • The 10-year Treasury yield exceeded 3% in late 2013, early 2014 (Bernanke’s taper tantrum), and then in late 2018 after Jay Powell had taken over hiking the fed funds rate from Janet Yellen.
  • People forget that in the Spring of 87, the 30-year Treasury bond lost 10 points in a month and was one of the precursors of the October ’87 crash.
  • Part and parcel of the job picture is the inflation story. If crude oil would correct down to the $75 area (and that seems unlikely) I do think it gives Powell a legitimate reason to slow the expected rate hikes now planned in 2022.

Illustration of business stock chart with arrow on target, 3d rendering.

nuchao/iStock via Getty Images

The above "monthly" chart of the TNX or the CBOE 10-year Treasury "yield" contract shows that the key Treasury security is poised to test its 200-month moving average around 2.69%.

As readers can see, the 10-year Treasury

This article was written by

Brian Gilmartin, CFA profile picture
Brian Gilmartin, is a portfolio manager at Trinity Asset Management, a firm he founded in May, 1995, catering to individual investors and institutions that werent getting the attention and service deserved, from larger firms. Brian started in the business as a fixed-income / credit analyst, with a Chicago broker-dealer, and then worked at Stein Roe & Farnham in Chicago, from 1992 - 1995, before striking out on his own and managing equity and balanced accounts for clients. Brian has a BSBA (Finance) from Xavier University, Cincinnati, Ohio, (1982) and an MBA (Finance) from Loyola University, Chicago, January, 1985. The CFA was awarded in 1994. Brian has been fortunate enough to write for the TheStreet.com from 2000 to 2012, and then the WallStreet AllStars from August 2011, to Spring, 2012. Brian also wrote for Minyanville.com, and has been quoted in numerous publications including the Wall Street Journal.

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Comments (6)

Thanks, Brian.
oilorphan profile picture
Good to hear from you again. I was there in ‘87 watching the apparent loss of the world itself and everything I had. It was an amazing experience.
Brian Gilmartin, CFA profile picture
@oilorphan yes, OO. Looking at the chart now it was barely a blip on the screen. You can't market time.
Brian Gilmartin, CFA profile picture
@aimepic Inflation is north of 7%, and the 10-year Treasury yield is at 2.42% this am. Something out of whack.
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