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Strategically Taking Profits In Valero (Even Though There Could Be Upside Left)

Apr. 04, 2022 1:08 PM ETDINO, PSX, VLO23 Comments


  • I have been overweight Valero and other refiners since 2020.
  • Those positions have since provided triple digit total returns.
  • Because Valero is deeply cyclical, I have taken profits, but I still hold my other refiner positions.
  • Taking profits now is mostly a type of portfolio rebalancing on my part, because Valero still probably has some upside left.
  • I share the thinking behind both my initial Valero purchases and my recent sales, along with my wider portfolio strategy.
  • I do much more than just articles at The Cyclical Investor’s Club: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more. Learn More »
Serious handsome engineer using a laptop while working in the oil and gas industry.

ArtistGNDphotography/E+ via Getty Images


For the past two years, Valero (VLO), and refinery stocks in general, have been my favorite deep cyclical investments of the COVID era. I purchased two refiner stocks in March of 2020 and tripled my refiner weighting on November 16th

If you have found my strategies interesting, useful, or profitable, consider supporting my continued research by joining the Cyclical Investor's Club. It's only $30/month, and it's where I share my latest research and exclusive small-and-midcap ideas. Two-week trials are free.

This article was written by

Cory Cramer profile picture
One-of-kind research using historical cycles to identify tops and bottoms

My analysis focuses on the cyclical nature of individual companies and of markets in general. I've developed a unique approach to estimating the fair value of cyclical stocks, and that approach allows me to more accurately buy near the bottom of the cycle.

My academic background is in political science and I hold a Bachelor's Degree and a Master's Degree in political theory from Iowa State University. I was awarded a Graduate Research Excellence Award in 2015 for my research on conservatism.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of PSX, DINO either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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